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International oil price falls for four consecutive weeks domestic oil price may be cut for the first time after Spring Festival

category:Finance
 International oil price falls for four consecutive weeks domestic oil price may be cut for the first time after Spring Festival


Zhuo Chuang information said that as the worlds largest crude oil importer and the worlds second largest crude oil consumer, the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia caused market concerns about Chinas crude oil demand, and triggered the global speculative funds risk aversion operation, which was bad for crude oil from the peripheral financial level.

Zhong Jian, chief researcher of jinlianchuang oil economy, pointed out that the change of oil futures price needs the liquidity support of position capital, but behind the current sharp decline, there is a lack of necessary support for position capital adjustment. Therefore, in the future, as long as the panic of the epidemic abates or subsides, the oil price will probably recover for some time.

Oil prices were briefly supported by news that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to meet in the week of January 31 to discuss production cuts, the Economic Information Daily reported. According to sources close to OPEC, OPEC hopes to extend the validity of the current production reduction agreement for three months to June. According to the development of the situation, OPEC may increase its efforts to reduce production.

According to Zhuo Chuang information, the probability of international oil price recovery is large, OPEC will deepen production reduction and stabilize the oil market, and the rational atmosphere of the market will gradually return. The oil price should continue to get support near the current level, and the subsequent or approximate rate will show a bottoming market.

Data sheet: gas station. Photographed by Xu Shiming, Zhongxin Jingwei

In terms of domestic oil products, according to Jin Lianchuangs calculation, as of the ninth working day on February 3, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 60.74 USD / barrel, with a change rate of - 6.92%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 360 yuan / ton.

Data shows that this round of price adjustment is the second price adjustment of domestic refined oil in 2020, and the first price adjustment is on January 14. On January 14, according to the national development and Reform Commission, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted. If todays (4) reduction is realized, the price of domestic refined oil will be lowered for the first time in 2020.

In addition, in terms of demand, a number of institutions pointed out that the current domestic market demand for gasoline and diesel is low.

Longzhong information said that on January 30, the performance of the gasoline and diesel markets began to diverge, while the gasoline market still did not improve significantly, but diesel sales increased, and diesel inventory of some refineries began to show signs of decline. However, the factors that have the greatest impact on demand are still continuing, and further signals are needed for the overall improvement of the refined oil market. Zhongyu information pointed out that the overall demand for diesel is weak, while the impact of the reduction of ordinary peoples travel on gasoline consumption is needless to say. On the whole, the consumption of refined oil is not optimistic, and the social inventory has increased. However, as most refineries adjust the starting load to reduce output, the space for the price of gasoline and diesel to continue to decline is narrowed. According to the principle of ten working days and one adjustment, the next round of oil product price adjustment window will open on February 18. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP) source: Zhongxin Jingwei editor in charge: Wang xiaowu_

Longzhong information said that on January 30, the performance of the gasoline and diesel markets began to diverge, while the gasoline market still did not improve significantly, but diesel sales increased, and diesel inventory of some refineries began to show signs of decline. However, the factors that have the greatest impact on demand are still continuing, and further signals are needed for the overall improvement of the refined oil market.

Zhongyu information pointed out that the overall demand for diesel is weak, while the impact of the reduction of ordinary peoples travel on gasoline consumption is needless to say. On the whole, the consumption of refined oil is not optimistic, and the social inventory has increased. However, as most refineries adjust the starting load to reduce output, the space for the price of gasoline and diesel to continue to decline is narrowed.

According to the principle of ten working days and one adjustment, the next round of oil product price adjustment window will open on February 18. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)