Support international top scientists in China to propose virus research strategies and epidemic prediction

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 Support international top scientists in China to propose virus research strategies and epidemic prediction


WLA Shanghai central investigation team and its colleagues at University of Oxfords headmasters office have discussed with the University of Oxford scientists about the epidemic situation in China. The first one is Professor Gavin Swinton, head of the medical department of Oxford University, and the second one is Professor Raymond dewick, director of the Institute of sugar biology of Oxford University.

At present, wla believes that in the field of global epidemic prevention and research, there are three main strategies for virus research:

Virus inhibitors were developed for the pathway targets of host cells in the process of virus infection, survival and replication;

Development of specific neutralizing antibodies against viral proteins and development of viral vaccines.

According to the news of the surging news, WLA Shanghai center is conducting an investigation based on these three strategic directions, and has conducted in-depth discussions with relevant laboratories and scientists, including the chairman of WLA, winner of the 2006 Nobel prize in chemistry, Professor Kroger Kornberg of Stanford University, vice president of WLA, winner of 2013 Nobel prize in chemistry, and Michael Eli of Biology Department of Stanford University, Stanford University. Professor Witt, winner of the Wolff prize in chemistry in 1994, Professor Richard Lerner of Scripps Institute in the United States, Professor Raymond dewick, director of the Institute of glycobiology of Oxford University in the United Kingdom, and other scientists have expressed positive concern about the epidemic situation, and put forward solutions based on years of intensive research, willing to actively play the international scientific force and support Chinas anti epidemic efforts Get some action.

On February 3, local time, another scientist, Michael Levitt, the 2013 Nobel Prize winner in chemistry and professor of structural biology at Stanford University, shared his prediction of the new coronavirus infection of pneumonia with www.thepaper.cn. In a short two page report, he conducted an intuitive data analysis based on the currently published diagnosis and death data, and initially believed that the number of new deaths would be reduced next week. He also said that of all the data, the number of reported cases parameter seems to be the most unreliable because it has changed unpredictably.

The report makes statistics on the epidemic data of pneumonia infected by new coronavirus from January 22, 2019 to February 2, 2020. The original data is taken from the kaggle website (https://www.kaggle.com/sudalairajkumar/new-corona-virus-2019-dataset / data) and checked with the following data sources: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html 6535; / bda75794740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 and https://jobtree.cn/wv/? From = groupmessage & isappinstalled = 0.

Based on the preliminary analysis of the above data, Professor Michael Levitt proposed the following findings in the report:

The number of cumulative cases is expected to continue to increase in the future;

The mortality rate of cases in Hubei Province is higher, but it is much lower in other areas (Hubei is 16 times of that in other areas);

The rate of deaths on that day, excluding those on the previous day, is decreasing. Since January 25, 2020, the change rate of the total death toll and the death toll in Hubei Province has been in a monotonous downward trend. Since January 29, 2020, both of them have been in a linear downward trend. This shows that through linear trend extrapolation analysis, the number of new deaths will decrease rapidly over the next week.

Image from Michael Levitt

Any prediction is uncertain, but my conclusion depends on the number of deaths rather than the number of cases, Professor Michael Levitt said

Born in 1947, Levitt is 73 years old. He received his Ph.D. from Cambridge University in 1971. Now he is a professor of Cancer Research Institute at Stanford University School of medicine. In 2013, he shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry with American scientists Martin kapras and aliye Vasher for his contributions to the development of multi-scale models for complex chemical systems and the establishment of multi-scale computational simulation methods. Levitt is currently vice president of the worlds top scientists Association. For the analysis of Michael Levitt, the Shanghai center of the worlds top scientists Association responded that if the data platform itself is correct, from the perspective of statistics and mathematical models, we can see that the group data units in the next Wednesday show a linear downward trend; based on this angle, Professor Leavitt has made an optimistic judgement. But this data only represents his personal forecast. From an epidemiological point of view, comprehensive factors in the actual situation need to be taken into account. Source: surging news editor: Wang Fengzhi, nt2541

Levitt is currently vice president of the worlds top scientists Association. For the analysis of Michael Levitt, the Shanghai center of the worlds top scientists Association responded that if the data platform itself is correct, from the perspective of statistics and mathematical models, we can see that the group data units in the next Wednesday show a linear downward trend; based on this angle, Professor Leavitt has made an optimistic judgement.

But this data only represents his personal forecast. From an epidemiological point of view, comprehensive factors in the actual situation need to be taken into account.