Economy is the body, finance is the blood, the two coexist and prosper, the important carrier between them is bank credit. According to the 21st century economic report, affected by the epidemic, wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering and other industries have a great impact, and the credit risk of loans in related industries may be exposed, but commercial banks will provide continued loan support. In addition, commercial banks will launch epidemic special loans to invest in Hubei province and related industries. From the perspective of credit rhythm, the probability of new scale and proportion decreased in the first quarter.
The enterprise has not started yet, and there is no new credit demand. The scale of credit in the first quarter is sure to be lower than that in the previous year, even at the beginning of the second quarter. Compared with the previous year opening, this years credit may be year-round The head of the assets and liabilities Department of a Western Branch of a joint stock bank said.
Hard to get off to a good start in the first quarter
For the consideration of early investment and early return, banks tend to put more credit at the beginning of the year. The bank basically launched in accordance with the rhythm of 3322 in four quarters. For example, in the first quarter of 2019, RMB loans increased by 5.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 952.6 billion yuan, a record high. In terms of proportion, the newly increased credit scale in the first quarter of 2019 accounts for 35% of the whole year.
According to a person from the asset and liability Department of the head office of a joint stock bank, the banks new credit plan for the whole year is about 310 billion yuan, of which more than 50 billion yuan has been put in January. Due to the decrease of working days, the new investment scale of the bank in January was lower than that of the same period last year.
This year is early spring, and the credit in January is basically in the first half of January. Generally speaking, three days before the Spring Festival and half a month after the Spring Festival, the scale of credit is very small. So even if there is no epidemic, the scale of delivery in late January and early February is not large. But if the epidemic continues, the credit in February and March will be affected, said the head offices asset and liability department
According to a person from the credit management department of a large state-owned bank in the central province, the difficulty of credit management of commercial banks has increased under the epidemic. For example, the marketing work of credit business will be affected, which will relax the expansion of excellent customers, and then have a negative impact on the quantity and quality of loan. In addition, the interference of loan investigation and approval may affect the timely issuance of loans.
Under the outbreak, the State Council has extended the Spring Festival holiday to February 3. Many provinces require companies to return to work no earlier than February 9. Considering that employees need to be isolated for 14 days when they return to work, the real return to work of the enterprise will be in late February.
A person from the company Department of the head office of a large state-owned bank said that the banks system has maintained January 31 and February 1 as holidays, and the loans due on these two days will be automatically postponed, and interest adjustment and other matters have been communicated with customers. We have eliminated the rigid control of credit scale, and do not require how much to invest in the first quarter.
The head of the asset and liability Department of the aforesaid joint stock bank Western Branch said that the current demand for new credit would be reduced due to the impact of the epidemic. Under the regulatory requirements, the renewal business may be more. (Branch) compared with last year, the credit supply in January increased slightly, but it will drop sharply in February and March, which is not optimistic. Its hard to see the first quarters credit launch is a success. There may be a launch opportunity in the second half of the year.
His judgment is based on the fact that economic growth will decline in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic, but the economy may stabilize and recover in the second half of the year. For example, in the second quarter of 2003, when the SARS epidemic broke out, Chinas GDP growth slowed down from 11.1% in the first quarter to 9.1%. However, as the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, there may be rush to work phenomenon in the follow-up to make up for the decline of early investment, and then bring credit opportunities.
According to the person in the asset and liability Department of the head office of the joint stock bank, 2020 is also faced with the hard constraint of doubling GDP. In order to offset the impact of the slowdown in the first quarters economic growth, the capital construction industry may be an important investment direction of commercial bank credit in the second half of the year.
By contrast, the SARS epidemic broke out at the end of April 2003: consumption in May of that year increased by 4.3% year-on-year, only half of the growth rate in the same period of last year, the lowest level since 1991; investment growth in May remained stable. In June, when SARS faded, the growth rate of consumption and investment and new credit rebounded. For example, in June of that year, 543.9 billion new credit was added, doubling on a month on month basis, reaching a new high in the year.
Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of Tianfeng securities banking industry, said the epidemic would affect the banks credit delivery, which may have a negative impact on the credit delivery in February. However, the impact is expected to converge under a number of regulatory initiatives. The whole years credit supply will still maintain the pace of 3322, but the credit supply in February may be affected to some extent, or less than previously expected.
New epidemic special loan
Liao Zhiming said that in addition to a few industries such as medical and online entertainment, most industries will be affected by the epidemic. The solvency of small and medium-sized enterprises in these industries may decline, and a small number of enterprises may fail to meet the credit standards as a result, and the financing demand will also be affected.
The head offices asset and liability Department said that the banks overall direction of credit will not change, mainly to strengthen infrastructure, expand small and micro businesses, control real estate and stabilize retail (mortgage loans).
The mortgage loan is relatively good, and this year it is still inclined to increase investment. Credit card loans will be reduced this year because of the increase in non-performing loans. In addition, this year, we require the balance of real estate development loans to decline by 0.5 percentage points, specifically, the incremental real estate loans should not exceed one third of the total credit increment, and the stock proportion should be stable and slightly decreased, he said
The central province credit management department of the state-owned bank said that the epidemic has put forward new requirements for credit investment in the future. First, the Credit Department of the bank is required to understand the operation of existing customers in a timely, comprehensive and true manner, and analyze the risk of loan renewal under the condition of ensuring the safety of existing loans; second, it is required to appropriately adjust the direction of credit investment and explore new business directions.
Specifically, on the one hand, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, logistics and transportation, cultural tourism and other industries are greatly affected by the epidemic, and their profitability is declining, which may lead to some risk exposure. On the other hand, there are major opportunities in the new retail, online medical and online entertainment industries, but these industries are asset light industries. How to cooperate with them for win-win results, banks need to explore new ways. Said a person from the central province credit management department of the state-owned bank.
According to the reporter, in addition to the good project and loan extension, commercial banks will also provide targeted credit support to the severely affected areas and industries affected by the epidemic, such as arranging special epidemic loans.
According to the credit arrangement of a state-owned bank obtained by the 21st century economic report reporter, it can fully meet the credit demand for epidemic prevention and control, for example, it can fully guarantee the credit demand for the construction of Wuhan huoshenshan and leishenshan hospital projects. In addition, the special matching of 10 billion yuan credit scale for inclusive small and micro enterprises in Hubei Province can reduce the interest rate by 0.5 percentage points on the basis of the existing interest rate.
According to the person from the asset and liability Department of the head office of the joint stock bank, the bank has arranged a special loan line of 10 billion yuan for the relevant industries affected by the epidemic, of which 3 billion yuan has been allocated to Wuhan Branch (Hubei Province).
The central bank and other five ministries and commissions issued a document on February 1, saying that during the epidemic prevention and control period, the central bank will provide a total of 300 billion yuan of low-cost special re loan funds to major national banks and some local legal person banks in key provinces, regions and cities, such as Hubei, to support financial institutions to provide credit support for listed enterprises with preferential interest rates.
Source: editor in charge of 21st century economic report: Zhang Meiyu nf2100