Look at the market from the perspective of fund: a share market will open in spring when the epidemic turns

category:Finance
 Look at the market from the perspective of fund: a share market will open in spring when the epidemic turns


For the stock market, the one-off adjustment after the festival is inevitable. In terms of the range, referring to the performance of other markets during the Spring Festival in China, the Hang Seng Index fell 5.7%, the Hang Seng China enterprise index fell 6.5%, and the A50 futures fell about 7% (wind, 20200124-20200130, the past performance of the index does not predict its future performance, so investment should be cautious). We believe that the A-share after the festival will face certain challenges Adjustment of amplitude. After that, if the epidemic data can stabilize, it is believed that the market will be more likely to stabilize. After all, the overall valuation of a shares is still at the bottom of history, and it is also cheaper in the global market. SARS did not change the long-term trend of the market. Therefore, in the medium and long term, this adjustment is more likely to be a good time to build a warehouse. We will flexibly respond to the situation according to the adjustment range of the market after the festival and the latest progress of the epidemic. If the market response is too large, it will be a good opportunity to increase positions at a low level in the medium and long term. For example, there may be certain opportunities for sectors with less negative impact of the epidemic, such as medicine, science and technology, mandatory consumption, etc. Secondly, we can focus on sectors with high dividend and low undervalued value that benefit from a loose low interest rate environment. In addition, some listed companies with long-term competitiveness in the sectors damaged by the epidemic will also be a good layout opportunity after the share price falls.

Huaxia Fund: the periodic impact of the epidemic on the market does not change the long-term trend

Many investors are concerned about the impact of the epidemic on the A-share market. We believe that the epidemic will have an impact on the short-term market of a share in terms of its own valuation, market liquidity, the impact of the epidemic on the real economy, historical experience, regulatory policy care and other dimensions, but the downward space is limited, probably the rate will not change the operation direction of the market. Therefore, investors do not have to panic too much. If there is a short-term panic drop in the market, it is a good time to layout.

The emergence of the epidemic will impact the short-term market of A-share, which does not change our optimistic judgment on the overall A-share market this year. Looking back on the history, the emergence of A-share comprehensive bear market is often caused by some important fundamental factors, such as macro-economic contraction caused by inflation, global economic crisis, comprehensive trade friction, etc., while the outbreak of the epidemic is more stage impact on the market, and does not change the medium or long-term trend of operation. Considering that the current valuation of the A-share market is in the historical low range, the growth rate of corporate profits has gradually bottomed out and rebounded, and the liquidity environment has improved at the margin. Under the inflow of incremental capital, waiting for the situation to be clear, the overall upward space of the A-share index will be opened again.

From the perspective of asset allocation, we believe that the allocation value of stocks still has a comparative advantage over bonds. In the short term, the market performance after the festival may be better than expected. Considering the learning effect from the SARS market, the impact of the market on the epidemic is more understood as temporary, irregular and one-off. When the epidemic under control signs appear, the market is expected to lead to a rebound. In the medium term, the impact of the epidemic will not change the general tone of high quality development in the new era. The dividends of economic restructuring and capital market reform will be gradually released in the A-share market

The trend of short-term Hong Kong stock market is greatly affected by sentiment, and the number of new suspected and confirmed cases is an important observation indicator. The performance of Hong Kong stocks in the medium and long term depends on the economic cycle and market valuation, with a small correlation with the epidemic. Excluding large market value blue chip sectors such as financial and real estate, the current valuation of Hong Kong shares is significantly lower than a shares, which does not exclude the possibility of outperforming a shares in the later period.

We will actively take advantage of the opportunity of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets substantial adjustment, take advantage of the markets panic about the development of the epidemic situation and the impact on performance, and reverse actively allocate some excellent companies with low valuation, good fundamentals and medium and long-term development prospects to maintain high positions, which are mainly concentrated in wind power equipment parts, industrial oligarchs, consumption, biological nutrition products, innovative drugs, science and technology, etc The overall layout of the board is not different from that of the four seasons report.

First of all, the epidemic will have a short-term impact on Chinas economy, but the downward range is relatively limited (the impact of SARS on Q2 GDP in 2003 is about 0.9 percentage points), and the duration is about one quarter. But when the epidemic is under control, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize and rebound (or even retaliate). In addition, it is expected that the epidemic will have little impact on the domestic real estate market. During the SARS epidemic in 2003, the domestic real estate market as a whole continued to be stable.

Second, we expect regulators to adopt more flexible and active policies to deal with the impact of the epidemic. In particular, the impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises is relatively large, so it is expected that there will be policy support for small and medium-sized enterprises in currency, credit and regional aspects. Third, the epidemic will have a downward impact on the A-share market in the short term, but mainly in the short term. We are still optimistic about the medium and long term. However, it should be emphasized that when the follow-up epidemic is substantially alleviated (turning point appears), it is when A-share starts to rebound, and the epidemic is only a short-term disturbance to the spring market of A-share. In the medium and long term, liquidity, the pace of economic operation and the process of reform are the fundamental factors that determine the market. We all have an optimistic attitude and firm confidence in these factors.

Xingquan Fund: the short-term impact on the market, the long-term trend has not been changed or become a good opportunity for allocation

The fluctuation of short-term earnings data shown in the first quarter report of listed companies will affect the short-term sentiment and risk preference of investors, thus bringing short-term fluctuation of stock price. However, our long-term development view of Chinas economy and capital market remains unchanged, and we will still adhere to the investment layout in the listed companies with excellent fundamentals.

Theoretically, no matter DCF or DDM valuation model, the core factors that affect the price of equity assets are the long-term profit prospect and discount rate of the enterprise. The long-term profit outlook depends on the long-term economic trend, and with the breaking of new asset management regulations, the discount rate will also go down, both of which will be conducive to improving the value of equity assets, and the long-term trend of the whole market will not change greatly due to the impact of the epidemic.

Different investors will have different views and behaviors due to different investment styles and different investment time dimensions. Short term trend investors will consider making short-term risk aversion actions, but for rational long-term investors, short-term event impact or a good asset allocation time point. During the period of SARS, Buffetts purchase of H shares of PetroChina against the trend was a textbook classic case. After four years of holding, it was sold out when the market was optimistic in 2007, earning nearly 10 times of profits.

Jingshun Great Wall: the impact of the epidemic on the market in the medium and long term is limited, and the follow-up policy space is large

The duration and scope of the impact depends on the follow-up development of the epidemic, in which consumption (especially optional consumption) is the most directly affected. The rework of migrant workers after the festival will affect the production and investment activities of enterprises, and small and medium-sized enterprises will also face greater impact. At present, Chinas economy is in the transition period, and the internal and external environment is weaker than that of SARS. In the future, China will still face certain challenges. It is expected that the counter cyclical adjustment policies such as broad currency, broad credit, and fiscal quality and efficiency improvement will continue, and there is a large space for follow-up policies. In consideration of the rising risk aversion of investors at present, the epidemic will have a certain impact on the post holiday market, but we believe that this round of epidemic will not have a great impact on the medium and long-term trend and growth, and the current market valuation is low, with a certain margin of safety, it is suggested that investors do not need to be overly sad, and the market is expected to return to the medium and long-term operation trend after the end of the epidemic. If the short-term adjustment is too large, we can focus on the investment opportunities brought by the high-quality individual stocks killed by mistake. As the spread of the new coronavirus is still changing dynamically, and the duration, breadth and depth of the impact are still difficult to predict, it is suggested that investors should pay close attention to the development of the epidemic in the future

Penghua Fund: Post epidemic market adjustment or current opportunity to focus on medical TMT

At present, the whole impact may only affect the first quarter temporarily. When will the follow-up epidemic end? It is difficult to make accurate expectations. It needs to be objectively looked and analyzed. There are certain rules, gradually reaching the peak and then dissipated.

The whole market, including liquor, catering, machinery, cycle, finance and even TMT, may have some callback after the opening of the festival. All stock prices reflect the cash flow discount of the company in so many years in the future. As long as the impact of the high incidence period (the first quarter) is passed, the quality of the enterprise itself may not change much, which does not have a great impact on the value of the company as a whole, but only affects the performance of a quarter

It is expected that the market rate will be adjusted quickly and intensively after the festival. From the perspective of public funds and new development funds, the core of our top priority is to provide the holders with a certain absolute return on earnings. Then the adjusted market will be a very good time window for position building. The industries we focus on are still those, such as medicine and TMT And part of the consumption, etc., will have a good return in the future.

BOC Fund: the epidemic will not change the medium and long-term trend

Although the A-share market suffered heavy losses in the first trading day of the Spring Festival, it is generally believed that this round of adjustment may form a gold pit, which is expected to bring better medium and long-term investment opportunities.

In the short term, the optional consumption and cycle sectors that are greatly impacted by the epidemic will face greater adjustment pressure, while the pharmaceutical and technology sectors that are weakly related to economic expectations and benefit from the loose liquidity expectations will relatively resist the decline, which is also preliminarily confirmed by the performance of A-share on the first trading day of the year. Once the epidemic situation shows a clear easing momentum, it is necessary to focus on the optional consumption and the rebound opportunity of the cycle plate with greater pressure in the early stage. In addition, the current valuation of media, new energy vehicles and other sectors is relatively reasonable, and the future boom is expected to continue to repair, so investors can also pay proper attention.

In terms of bond investment, in the short term, we can pay attention to the liquidity of individual bonds while improving the duration, maintain the appropriate leverage level, and be cautious about credit bonds. At the same time, investors need to pay close attention to the changes in the number of epidemic cases, the interest rate volatility risk and liquidity risk caused by repeated market sentiment. After the interest rate falls rapidly, there may be a rebound risk. In terms of medium and long-term allocation strategy, the overall duration and leverage strategy can be relatively positive, and the credit strategy is mainly of medium and high grade. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of 3-5-year high-grade credit bonds.

Cathay Pacific Fund: A-share market may still return to the market dominated by fundamentals

After todays substantial adjustment, there is limited space for the subsequent decline of a shares. It is expected that under the tone of stable growth throughout the year, the profit growth of listed companies will still be guaranteed. From the perspective of the industry, on the one hand, the decline may bring better layout opportunities for technology stocks. On the other hand, consumer stocks with relatively small first quarter performance and affected by the epidemic, as well as cyclical products with delayed new construction, low inventory and low price may usher in better layout opportunities. In general, we believe that the epidemic will not change the direction of the overall macroeconomic development, and the impact on the market and economy is also temporary. In the medium and long term, the A-share market may still return to the market dominated by fundamentals.

Boshi Fund: recognition of A-share value by foreign investors in the medium and long term still has investment opportunities

On the whole, the decline is more than expected. Taking into account the previous weeks decline, the cumulative decline of a share in the past two weeks has exceeded 10%, which is basically equivalent to the same periods decline of the main stock indexes of Hong Kong stocks, indicating that the response to the current development of the epidemic is more adequate. In the short term, despite policy support, the A-share market may still be dominated by the epidemic situation, and the market generally pays attention to and waits for the turning point of the epidemic. From the perspective of risk, considering the existing adjustment range, if the epidemic does not exceed the expected negative development, the falling space of A-share market has been relatively limited, and it will gradually get out of panic in the short term. In the case of A-share slump, todays foreign investment changed from net outflow to net inflow of 18 billion yuan, indicating that the value of foreign investment in A-share is relatively recognized, which confirms that the current adjustment range of A-share is sufficient. On the whole, the epidemic is still only a periodic disturbance of our social and economic activities, and it will be mainly reflected in the first quarter. In the medium term, the investment opportunities of a share are more attractive. Investors may consider gradually increasing the allocation of a share. Source: editor in charge of Finance and economics of Netease: Ren Hui, nbj9607

On the whole, the decline is more than expected. Taking into account the previous weeks decline, the cumulative decline of a share in the past two weeks has exceeded 10%, which is basically equivalent to the same periods decline of the main stock indexes of Hong Kong stocks, indicating that the response to the current development of the epidemic is more adequate. In the short term, despite policy support, the A-share market may still be dominated by the epidemic situation, and the market generally pays attention to and waits for the turning point of the epidemic. From the perspective of risk, considering the existing adjustment range, if the epidemic does not exceed the expected negative development, the falling space of A-share market has been relatively limited, and it will gradually get out of panic in the short term. In the case of A-share slump, todays foreign investment changed from net outflow to net inflow of 18 billion yuan, indicating that the value of foreign investment in A-share is relatively recognized, which confirms that the current adjustment range of A-share is sufficient.