How can the consumer industry, which lost 10 billion yuan after the most idle Spring Festival, find a turning point?

category:Finance
 How can the consumer industry, which lost 10 billion yuan after the most idle Spring Festival, find a turning point?


Various consumer industries called for the introduction of relevant tax relief policies, while the enterprise itself to carry out appropriate transformation to overcome the difficulties.

The hidden pain behind the busy tourism industry

Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the travel agencys team tour was suspended. Ctrip, tuniu, Tongcheng, lvma, CYTS, Jinjiang, Chunqiu and other tourism enterprises handled a large number of chargebacks during the whole Spring Festival holiday. It is unprecedented for a platform to return millions of chargebacks during the whole Spring Festival holiday and receive 100000 calls a day.

Behind such a busy retreat and reform peak, a large number of tour guides, grounding, travel agencies, hotel practitioners, scenic spots and accommodation operators in the tourism industry chain have been affected, followed by no work to work.

Wang Weiping (pseudonym), the tour guide, has been staying at home since the Spring Festival holiday. Originally, it was a busy season at this time of year. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the tourist group withdrew and attacked, Wang Weiping had no work to take over.

Most tour guides dont have a base salary. We rely on the group to collect commissions. According to different routes, the monthly income varies from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. The Spring Festival is the peak season and the income is doubled. But in this special spring festival, we have no income. At present, the most important thing is not just the Spring Festival. In view of security considerations, the cancellation of todays withdrawal and free travel has involved March to April, especially after the United States and other countries issued policies restricting the entry of Chinese tourists, a large number of outbound travel orders in March to April are also being returned in batches. As a result, the ground connection between the leader guide and the tourist destination is equal to no work to be connected, and the collective is in loss Industry status, zero income. Wang told the first financial reporter helplessly.

For a large number of chargeback tourism platform, advance payment is a huge cost. The business owners reported that some overseas hotels and partners for outbound tours could not be fully refunded. In order to protect the interests of tourists, the platform could only pay for the losses on its own, and try to fully refund the tourists. At present, such advance funds are still rising every day.

The same dilemma is faced by the home stay. A home stay operator in Hangzhou disclosed to the first financial reporter that in the second half of 2019, the market competition was fierce, and the business of home stay operated by him had declined. Now it seems that the peak season of the first quarter of 2020 is impossible, but the rent and related fees still need to be paid, roughly estimated, there will be hundreds of thousands of yuan of losses.

Since the Spring Festival holiday, the Forbidden City, museums, Shanghai Disneyland and other major scenic spots have been closed. Some scenic spots reflect that after the suspension of the opening of scenic spots, the salaries of employees and the maintenance of scenic spots still need to be paid. Most of the income of scenic spots is very unitary depending on tickets. After the suspension of business, the cost pressure is huge.

Ice and fire is the hotel industry. Hundreds of hotels in Wuhan have been busy receiving medical staff recently. The first financial reporter saw that in the working group of hotels and medical staff, many local hotel staff in Wuhan are communicating and working almost 24 hours a day. However, hotels in other parts of the country are unusually cold.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, more than 100 hotels of our group have been closed, and more than 70 hotels are still open, but the occupancy rate is very low, much lower than that of SARS many years ago, and the pressure is very great. The founder of a large chain hotel told the first financial reporter.

According to the incomplete statistics of many hotels, since the Spring Festival, the occupancy rate of major hotels has dropped by more than 80%, which is at least the case. The occupancy rate of many hotels is less than 4%, which is far lower than 30% - 40% in SARS. Zhao Huanyan, chief knowledge officer of Huamei consulting agency, calculated an account for the first financial reporter: according to 400 rooms, the cost of opening a hotel is 150000 yuan a day, and 120000 yuan if not, and the total cost of some large-scale hotels can reach 500000-700000 yuan a day. Such a low occupancy rate is hard to support.

Personnel placement is also a major difficulty. At present, there are about 10000 employees in Hangzhou, and now our hotel has been temporarily closed more than 100, a large number of employees are unable to work, all live in the dormitory, and it is not convenient for everyone to go out. We also promise to pay basic salary to all employees and extend the rest time to February 20. At present, the management pressure of the staff and the cost pressure of the enterprise are both great. Said the founder of the large chain hotel.

For the current situation, Ctrip, Tongcheng, tuniu, etc. said that the travel agency had to shut down and stop production, and the wages and social security of employees had to be solved. They hoped that the government would have disaster relief funds or tax reduction measures, and introduced relevant policies in personnel, finance and insurance to help the tourism enterprises get through the difficulties. It is suggested to reduce or postpone the collection of enterprise tax as much as possible, and at the same time implement preferential tax policies. In order to maintain the normal operation of the enterprise and the stability of the staff, support and promote the qualified provinces and cities to subsidize the seriously damaged travel agency industry, and give special temporary subsidies during the epidemic period. It is suggested that the government, tourism authorities and industry associations should be able to coordinate the upstream and downstream enterprises such as airlines, hotels, motorcades, scenic spots, etc., make special treatment, jointly serve the tourists well and bear social responsibility, and minimize the loss of travel agencies.

Sun Jian, general manager and chairman and CEO of the first home hotel group, told the first financial reporter that at present, the cost reduction and tax reduction at this stage are the most direct and effective for hotel enterprises. It is suggested to introduce phased policies, including rent subsidy, hardware reduction or postponement, tax preference, enterprise interest free loan, etc.

At present, the first tour, such as home, Huazhu, Jinjiang and so on, has reduced the franchise fee to a certain extent. And Ctrip, Tongcheng, etc. started hundreds of millions of yuan to pay for the emergency fund.

Wei suggested that a China tourism development fund could be set up. This is the special use of financial means to help tourism enterprises to tide over difficulties and enhance their potential. According to the commercial operation mode, the integration of resources in all aspects can be promoted in a special period.

Liquor companies call for space for inventory digestion

This Spring Festival, because the catering market is greatly affected, it also affects the consumption of liquor. The actual consumption has declined, the terminal inventory has not been digested as scheduled, and the growth of liquor enterprises is under pressure in the short term, and the long-term trend remains to be observed.

Spring Festival has always been the top priority of drinking water consumption. The first financial reporter found that the epidemic is indirectly affecting drinking water consumption. Liying, a liquor dealer in Zibo, Shandong Province, has spent a quiet spring festival. He told the first financial reporter that even if the door is open, there will be no business. Although there are fewer confirmed cases in Zibo, the restaurants and activities have been closed, and the living areas and villages are strictly forbidden to visit, which has greatly affected the gathering and gift markets. Compared with most of his peers, Li Ying thinks he is still lucky because most of his inventory has been shipped before, but now he is facing a new worry. Because most of his purchases have not yet been paid back, if the terminal is unable to digest the purchases before, it may bring problems of payment back and return, which will affect the capital turnover and business this year.

Xue Dezhi, general manager of Weida luxury wine, replenished 400000 bottles of wine after the Spring Festival. It is estimated that this batch of wine will not be sold out until the third quarter of this year, because 80% of the inventory of its dealers is still in the warehouse. But he said that this period of time can be used to adjust inventory, clean up low-end circulation products, and ensure that profits survive first.

The life of big liquor merchants is not easy either. In 1919, the company responded to first finance and economics that it can take online office, but the offline stores have not fully recovered. Because of the different epidemic situations, now the company adopts the way of contactless distribution. Overall, the overall business impact is not great because of orders on the line, but the ready to drink business has been affected.

The reporter found that since the main impact of the epidemic was after January 20, most dealers inventory had been shipped at that time, but what worried dealers was the lack of consumer demand, which had an impact on business this year.

With the development of the epidemic situation, the trend of liquor stocks in the new year is also uncertain. Liquor consumption has declined in the short term, and liquor companies performance throughout the year is under pressure, which has become the industry consensus.

Wang Zhaocheng, chairman of Shengchu group, said that the economic losses caused by the epidemic and extended holidays are hard to measure. The epidemic has a phased impact on the wine industry, with an impact on the whole industry in the whole year of about 10%. In the first quarter, both the gift consumption and the gathering consumption are the peak of the whole year. The consumption accounts for 35% of the total consumption of the whole year. It is estimated that the consumption of wine in January and Spring Festival accounts for 20% of the total consumption of the whole year. The impact of the epidemic on the channels may be reflected in the second quarter.

Cai Xuefei, an alcohol analyst, pointed out that in view of the impact of the epidemic, Chinas alcohol consumption may be characterized by excessive inventory and slow sales, which in turn may affect the channel providers payment and enterprises adjustment of production plans.

Under the impact of this round of epidemic, it is the channel and terminal businesses that are most affected. Dealers with tight funds may face the risk of breaking. The industry also calls on liquor companies to take measures to protect channels.

In Wang Chaochengs view, in the impact of this round of epidemic, due to the shift from gathering to family consumption, and considering that self-protection awareness increases with the increase of education, the impact on high-end and famous wines in the market will be greater. But relatively speaking, small and medium-sized enterprises are weak in risk resistance, so they will be more affected and their operation may be even worse. Therefore, he suggested that all liquor companies should adjust their sales targets appropriately, reduce the payment collection progress of channels, and provide time for the market to digest inventory.

Cai Xuefei believes that once the epidemic is under control, consumption will rebound, but in the short term, the problem of destocking and resuming production cannot be ignored.

Cinema line pressure, film online channel

In addition to tourism and catering, the booming consumption of the Spring Festival was films. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the 2020 Spring Festival films, once known as the strongest Spring Festival Film in history, were withdrawn, and cinemas around the world were suspended. The total box office in January 2020 is fixed at RMB 2.242 billion, and it is difficult to make box office contribution in February when the epidemic continues. In the first two months of 2019, the total box office is RMB 14.541 billion. It is estimated that the overall impact of the epidemic on the industry is more than 10 billion yuan when the box office losses, labor costs and management costs are added up.

Since January 23, a number of cinemas across the country have announced the closure of their business, and cinemas and third-party voting platforms have also released ticket refund arrangements. New era media once estimated that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2020 will reach 7 billion yuan, and the disappeared Spring Festival will lead to the loss of more than 2 billion yuan in the box office. According to industry sources, the original film scheduled to be released in February is also doomed to be withdrawn.

In this context, the eyes of the film makers are also turning to online with the publics film consumption demand. Following the video platform of watermelon video, jitter, and todays headlines in January 25th, the action comedy movie Fat Dragon crossing the river starred by Donnie Yen was also launched on Tencent video and Iqiyi in February 1st. The film was originally scheduled to be shown on the cinema on Valentines day.

Two days after the launch of the video platform, lost Mom received more than 600 million times of broadcast volume and 180 million total viewers. The cooperation between joy media and byte beat also guaranteed the films revenue. But the move deepened the concern of the hospital. To this end, Zhao Jun, chairman of Shanghai Tangde Cinema Management Co., Ltd., has also issued an initiative, hoping that the management department will require the film distributors who have signed distribution and screening contracts with theatres to abide by the market rules.

Shao Qi, an associate professor in the Department of film and television at Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that after the outbreak, there will be a trend of watching movies. People need to watch movies to adjust the mood of depressing demand. Therefore, the demand for films will increase greatly in the short term. Films should find their own opportunities by finding the right schedule.

In addition to the loss of the film that cant be released, the cinema also faces the expense consumption of the venue rent, and continues to spend without income. To this end, Zhao Jun hoped that the industry association would appeal to the venue rental businesses of the national movie city to reduce the rent and fees, and negotiate with real estate developers and developers on various modifications around the cost of rent reduction. It also calls on film bureaus at all levels to reduce or exempt the special funds collected by the cinema this year. It is hoped that all regions will increase their support to continue to invest in the cinema and re encourage the support to new cinemas in the form of subsidies per square meter.

In addition to theaters, there are also production companies such as film and television plays, variety shows, etc. that have difficulty in venue cost. Because we have to postpone the resumption of work, the first problem facing the company is that the utilization rate of office buildings is very low, so now many people in the industry are also appealing, hoping that the entrepreneurial park, public buildings and other places can help reduce some rental fees, Zhang Xiaozhang, a content producer of a film and television company, told reporters Xiao Zhang said that the interruption of filming means that the total output of the whole year will be reduced, the cost will be delayed to recover, and all the staff of the production team will have to be readjusted. For enterprises, the overall capital operation difficulties will intensify this year. We need to provide a relaxed environment for the backlog of films and TV series due to the epidemic, not only to loosen the restrictions on the subject content, but also to support the expansion of broadcasting channels, especially to relax the broadcasting conditions of the satellite TV platform. The government can build an investment and financing platform, take creativity, copyright and credit as the core values, build a financing system, and solve the financing difficulties and cash flow problems faced by film and television enterprises. Shao Qi said so. Source: First Financial Editor: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931

In addition to theaters, there are also production companies such as film and television plays, variety shows, etc. that have difficulty in venue cost. Because we have to postpone the resumption of work, the first problem facing the company is that the utilization rate of office buildings is very low, so now many people in the industry are also appealing, hoping that the entrepreneurial park, public buildings and other places can help reduce some rental fees, Zhang Xiaozhang, a content producer of a film and television company, told reporters

Xiao Zhang said that the interruption of filming means that the total output of the whole year will be reduced, the cost will be delayed to recover, and all the staff of the production team will have to be readjusted. For enterprises, the overall capital operation difficulties will intensify this year.

We need to provide a relaxed environment for the backlog of films and TV series due to the epidemic, not only to loosen the restrictions on the subject content, but also to support the expansion of broadcasting channels, especially to relax the broadcasting conditions of the satellite TV platform. The government can build an investment and financing platform, take creativity, copyright and credit as the core values, build a financing system, and solve the financing difficulties and cash flow problems faced by film and television enterprises. Shao Qi said so.