On January 23, A-share launched the closing battle of the lunar year of pig. On the same day, the two cities jumped to a low opening, with the Shanghai index breaking through 3000 points again, and the Shenzhen composite index falling more than 4%. By the end of the day, the Shanghai index was down 2.75% to 2976.53, the Shenzhen composite index was down 3.52% to 10681.90, and the growth enterprise market index was down 3.32% to 1927.74.
As a whole, a share has delivered a good report card within 237 trading days of the lunar year of the pig (February 11, 2019-january 23, 2020). Although the Shanghai index lost its key position in the last trading day after returning to the 3000 point for 12 consecutive times, it rose to 2976.53 from 2613.17, with a cumulative increase of 13.68%; the Shenzhen Composite Index and the growth enterprise market index rose 39.01% and 51.64% respectively.
At that time, CICC believed that under the influence of short-term liquidity and capital before the long Spring Festival holiday, some investors chose to take profits before the long holiday after accumulating a certain amount of income, which may lead to low market fans and shrinking turnover, but this does not affect the positive trend of the A-share market in the medium term.
For the trend of a shares after the festival, from the perspective of historical data, in the ten years from 2010 to 2019, although the first trading day after the festival, the Shanghai index fell more than rose less, but from the data of the five trading days after the festival, except for the floating green in 2013, the other nine years all rose, with a rising probability of 90%.
According to statistics of Minsheng securities, in the 5, 10 and 20 trading days after the Spring Festival, the rising probability of the Shanghai stock index is 88.23%, 76.47% and 88.23% respectively, with an average increase of 1.88%, 1.95% and 2.66% respectively.
This is also the reason why some institutions give the strategy of stock holding based on the statistical significance. Yan Xiang, an analyst at Guosen Securities, pointed out that in terms of the rise and fall, the Spring Festival red envelopes in the past ten years have the characteristics of low risk and high return, and the market performance does have a more significant Spring Festival effect.
Black Swan: new coronavirus pneumonia
Although supported by historical data, this years special event is the black swan event of new coronavirus pneumonia.
On January 27, the general office of the State Council issued a notice to strengthen the prevention and control of the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new coronavirus, effectively reduce the number of people gathered and block the spread of the epidemic, extending the 2020 Spring Festival holiday to February 2 (the ninth day of the first lunar month, Sunday), and starting to work normally on February 3 (Monday).
On the same day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges issued a notice clearly extending the closing of the Spring Festival 2020 to February 2 (Sunday), and the opening of the stock market as usual from February 3 (Monday). The original plan was to open on Friday, January 31, which is equivalent to only one trading day later after the adjustment.
Before the issuance of the above notice, some insiders do not recommend delaying the opening of the market for too long. One of the reasons is that a shares have been incorporated into MSCIs index system, and it is an important premise for the inclusion that no arbitrary suspension of trading is allowed. In addition, foreign capital plays a more and more important role in A-share market. The delayed opening time is too long, which affects not only domestic investors, but also global investors.
Looking back, a shares had a precedent of delayed opening during the SARS period.
On April 28, 2003, the CSRC decided to extend the market closing time of May 1 in the securities and futures market. The original market closing arrangement from May 1 to May 5 was changed to that from May 1 (Thursday) to May 9 (Friday), and the market opened on May 12 (Monday).
It is worth mentioning that on the afternoon of February 2, the CSRC made a voice to respond to market concerns the day before the opening of the market.
The relevant person in charge of the CSRC pointed out that the longer the A-share market is closed, the greater the accumulated pressure and more uncertainties. The decision to open the market normally on February 3 is the result of the CSRCs responsible argumentation on various schemes, fully listening to the opinions of all parties and comprehensive evaluation.
The above-mentioned person in charge stressed that for the possible changes in the A-share market after the opening of the market, the relevant departments will maintain a high degree of vigilance, adhere to the bottom line thinking, introduce and study hedging tools, and ease market panic.
Industry: a shares medium and long-term good direction remains unchanged
Under the influence of the epidemic, the A-share market, which is about to start trading, has attracted much attention. By combing the research reports of securities companies and experts opinions, most of them agree that the epidemic may continue to affect short-term sentiment, but the medium and long-term good direction will not change.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that since the split share structure reform in 2005, the A-share market ecology has changed greatly, so to some extent, the market performance during the SARS period in 2003 does not necessarily reflect the current market. Only from the perspective of the theme, the outbreak of the epidemic may impact the stock market expectations in the short term, but this expectation will strengthen the markets confidence in counter cyclical operation.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, said that the trend of A-share market after the festival mainly depends on the spread of the epidemic. In the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the slow and long bull market. If the market callback is large after the festival, it is just the time to attract low-quality stocks.
Everbright Securities believes that the fundamental factor determining the market trend is the fundamentals of the policy economic cycle. In the short term of a week or so, the spread of the epidemic can disturb the market operation through emotions; in the long-term dimension of a year, the impact of the epidemic can be ignored, and the previous short-term disturbance is a rare opportunity for long-term investors to increase their positions.
Huatai futures said in the research paper that it expects a short-term sharp decline in a shares after the opening of the year. However, different from the SARS period, Chinas economy is in the stage of reducing the standard and interest rates, which is easy to form a capital driven stock market rise. To some extent, Chinas capital market accelerated reform to attract foreign funds and domestic medium and long-term funds to accelerate the inflow, which has a continuous stream of water, and the stock market still has the upper action force in the medium and long term.
In terms of industry allocation, Xu Biao, a strategist at Tianfeng securities, believes that the impact of the epidemic on the market may be staged and does not change the style of the market. When the epidemic situation escalates, the anti decline industry may be the strong technology stocks and pharmaceutical stocks in the early stage; after the epidemic, the market probably follows the original boom line, that is, the technology stocks market.
Zhang Xias team of China Merchants Securities believes that due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, there are three main directions for the layout: first, medical devices, which will become the risk aversion plate before the epidemic situation is alleviated; second, TMT (computer, media, electronics, communications), which includes game, online film and television, online education, consumer electronics and other home consumption in the future due to the impact of the epidemic situation Third, in the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is necessary for the policy to be more active. Once the epidemic is alleviated, the market will focus more on the driving point of the policy. According to Hu guopengs team of Founder Securities, the configuration is firm and optimistic about growth. The core logic of growth lies in the industrial cycle, which is currently led by 5g. The macro level disturbance is the layout opportunity, which can focus on Internet media, medicine and biology, banking and other industries. Source: surging news editor: Zhang mei_nf2100
Zhang Xias team of China Merchants Securities believes that due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, there are three main directions for the layout: first, medical devices, which will become the risk aversion plate before the epidemic situation is alleviated; second, TMT (computer, media, electronics, communications), which includes game, online film and television, online education, consumer electronics and other home consumption in the future due to the impact of the epidemic situation Third, in the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is necessary for the policy to be more active. Once the epidemic is alleviated, the market will focus more on the driving point of the policy.
According to Hu guopengs team of Founder Securities, the configuration is firm and optimistic about growth. The core logic of growth lies in the industrial cycle, which is currently led by 5g; the macro level disturbance is the layout opportunity, which can focus on Internet media, medicine and biology, banking and other industries