However, it is generally expected that China will carry out 5g scale construction in 2020, and China Mobile will also start the bidding of SPN bearing equipment at the end of 2019, and the construction plan will be put on the agenda one after another. Wei Leping, an industry expert, has repeatedly said that 5g competition is evolving into competition for optical fiber infrastructure. This also means that 5g will open the next golden decade and drive the demand of optical fiber and cable. Optical communication manufacturers should have more expectations.
5g demand is flat but stable
To be rich, we need to build roads first. The rapid development of 3G / 4G and FTTH in China is inseparable from the first paving of optical fiber infrastructure. Of course, it also contributes to the high-speed growth of optical fiber and cable manufacturers in China. The top 10 manufacturers in the world and 5 monopolized by China, complement each other and grow together. In the 5G era, with the formal commercial use of 5G, the demand for optical fiber and cable will still be a steady growth trend, and continue to boost the prosperity of optical communication industry. Previous capacity expansion can also be seen as an early layout before 5g.
Wei Leping once predicted that the outdoor macro station required for independent networking according to 3.5G is at least 2 times of 4G, and if the cooperative networking according to 3.5G + 1.8g/2.1g, the outdoor macro station required is at least 1.2 times of 4G. At the same time, indoor coverage needs to rely on tens of millions of small base stations. It can be seen that a large number of optical fiber interconnections are still needed between 5g base stations.
However, during the 2019 global fiber optic cable conference, Gao Junshi, director of the cable Institute of China Mobile Communications Group Design Institute, said that compared with FTTx, it is difficult to recreate the same brilliance of the fiber optic cable market in the 5g era. Under the background of basically saturated FTTx coverage in China, the overall demand for 5g fiber optic cable is small and stable, and the overall demand for 5g fiber optic cable will enter a stable period.
At the same time, another development opportunity in the 5g era may occur at the national level. 5g commercial, the emerging technologies and services such as overlay cloud computing, big data, Internet of things, streaming media, etc. are emerging, the pressure of network bandwidth is increasing, operators put forward higher requirements for single fiber capacity, and also put forward requirements for ultra-high speed transmission of long-distance trunk lines. The eight horizontal and eight vertical trunk cables in China have been built for more than 20 years, and the first batch of trunk cable lines have reached the late stage of design life. In order to meet the business requirements of 5g era, the backbone network will also enter the replacement and new construction cycle in the next few years.
Wei Leping once pointed out that in 5g era, backbone high-capacity routing will turn to low loss g.654. E fiber. In 2019, China Telecom and China Unicom carried out the centralized procurement of g.654. E optical cable respectively. It is assumed that the centralized procurement of trunk optical cable will be more frequent from 2020.
Although in 2019, the domestic optical fiber and cable market is out of blue, according to the data provided by CRU, in addition to the Chinese market, from a global perspective, the demand for optical fiber and cable in North America, Europe and emerging markets still maintains this good growth trend.
As a matter of fact, leading fiber and optical cable manufacturers have been looking at overseas markets for a long time. Under the guidance of the one belt and one way initiative, they are accelerating their way out. According to the financial statements of the first half of 2019 released by some listed optical fiber companies, the overseas business has achieved good results. More importantly, from the authors observation, the expansion of these enterprises overseas business is not limited to the export of optical fiber and cable products to overseas markets.
Of course, in the long run, the overseas market will also face many uncertain challenges. On the one hand, the continuous decline of the price of optical fiber and optical cable in China market will spread to the global market at a certain stage, and the price competition in the overseas market will be increasingly fierce; on the other hand, domestic enterprises march into the overseas market in a large scale, which is very easy to cause panic to foreign and local enterprises, and even suffer from anti-dumping. These reasons may be the consideration of more diversified overseas layout of optical communication manufacturers.
Multiple business layout highlights
5gs ultimate development goal is not only to improve the communication between people, but also more to be used for the communication between people and things, things and things. It carries the historical mission of building the intelligent world of everything. It is gradually becoming an important infrastructure for the digital transformation of society, which also means that 5g will enter the market of thousands of industries.
4G changes life and 5g changes society, said Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology. In addition to meeting the needs of people to people communication, 5g will have 80% of applications for Internet of vehicles, industrial Internet and other things to things communication in the future. According to the report, the global 5g driven industry application value in 2020-2035 will exceed US $12 trillion.
The industry also generally believes that the real value of 5g lies in the industry application, and telecom operators want to obtain dividends in this wave of digital transformation. As an important part of the information and communication industry chain, as a provider of communication network infrastructure, fiber optic cable manufacturers should not only provide downstream customer operators with solutions at the fiber optic cable level, but also look into the future and actively embrace 2B industry applications. It is understood that all major fiber optic cable manufacturers have prepared for the future and made full preparations at the strategic and product levels, especially in the field of industrial Internet, including Changfei, Hengtong, Zhongtian, Tongding and other manufacturers have started to layout and form corresponding solutions to alleviate the growth bottleneck of cable business before 5g. Looking forward to 2020, fiber optic cable manufacturers should be cautious and optimistic about 5g demand, at the same time, do a good job in product innovation, fully meet the requirements of 5g network; at the same time, for 5g related application scenarios wide layout, in order to get the cake in the digital dividend brought by 5g; in addition, actively expand overseas market, reduce the risk of single market. Source: responsible editor of c1114 communication network: Liao ziyao, nbjs10040
The industry also generally believes that the real value of 5g lies in the industry application, and telecom operators want to obtain dividends in this wave of digital transformation. As an important part of the information and communication industry chain, as a provider of communication network infrastructure, fiber optic cable manufacturers should not only provide downstream customer operators with solutions at the fiber optic cable level, but also look into the future and actively embrace 2B industry applications.
It is understood that all major fiber optic cable manufacturers have prepared for the future and made full preparations at the strategic and product levels, especially in the field of industrial Internet, including Changfei, Hengtong, Zhongtian, Tongding and other manufacturers have started to layout and form corresponding solutions to alleviate the growth bottleneck of cable business before 5g.