Can the United States retreat from the spiral conflict triggered by Sulaimanis death?

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 Can the United States retreat from the spiral conflict triggered by Sulaimanis death?


On January 3, the U.S. military targeted air strikes near Iraqs International Airport, killing suleymanis, commander of Irans Holy City Brigade. Later, Iraq became the main battlefield of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. On 5 January, Iraq demanded the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq. On January 7, several European countries, including Germany, Croatia and others, announced their withdrawal from Iraq. Britain, Canada and other countries also said they would pay close attention to the situation in Iraq.

The Beijing News reporter interviewed Middle East experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Chinese Academy of modern international relations to interpret Iraqs role in the US Iraq conflict and the changes in the US Middle East policy.

Irans attack on a U.S. military base sparked a fire on U.S. aircraft, IRNA news agency reported. Twitter screenshots

Interpretation 1

Does Irans attack on US military bases mean war?

Yu Guoqing, a researcher at the Middle East Research Office of the West Asia and Africa Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that there is a big difference between Irans missiles launched from the US military base in Iraq and from Irans base in Iraq.

If Iran Launches missiles from Iraq to attack US bases, it will be easier for the United States to make up its mind to fight back, and it will be easier for the United States to fight back against Iran quickly. It also shows to some extent that this is a proxy conflict between the United States and Iran, not a head-on collision.

But if Iran Launches missiles from its own territory to attack US bases, it will be more serious. The U.S. side may consider more carefully the counter attack measures against Iran, whether to directly attack the targets in Iran or Irans targets in Iraq. If we directly attack the targets in Iran, it may mean that the two countries are going to war.

Interpretation 2

What role does Iraq play in the US Iran conflict?

Yu Guoqing said that Iraqs request for the withdrawal of U.S. troops is a response to the U.S. air strikes in Iraq, and has strategically come together with Iran. But it did not specify the time of evacuation, which also left room for the relations between Iraq and the United States to some extent.

In recent years, the U.S. forces in the Middle East have been repeated, showing a wave like trend. This is because the United States generally wants to leave the Middle East, which trump has put forward many times; however, the situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, and the United States is not willing to leave Iran, so it is in a state of contradiction that it wants to leave but cannot leave. Tian said.

According to Tian Wenlin, it is basically impossible for trump to control the Middle East with low cost, to ensure the dominance of the United States in the Middle East, and to have no human or financial investment. Iran has been trying to drive the United States out of the Middle East. As long as the United States shrinks slightly, Iran will seize the opportunity to occupy the Middle East, so it is difficult for the United States to get out of the Middle East. But the United States will not easily have a large-scale military conflict with Iran, and will be more restrained.

Interpretation 3

Will American troops withdraw from Iraq?

In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein. In 2007, the number of US troops in Iraq reached a peak of 170000. In 2008, then US President George W. Bush reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to allow us troops to stay in Iraq until 2011. On December 8, 2011, U.S. forces in Iraq completely withdrew from Iraq.

Just after the withdrawal of US troops, the Islamic state (is) extremist organizations rose rapidly and occupied most of Iraq and Syria. Defeated, Iraq turned to the United States in early 2014, and the U.S. military has since returned to Iraq. In the absence of a formal garrison agreement, the U.S. military in Iraq reached more than 5000 in 2017. At present, the main task of the multinational coalition led by the US military is to train the regular Iraqi army and jointly combat is.

(function() {(window. Slotbydup = window. Slotbydup| []). Push ({ID: u5811557, container: ssp_, async: true});))) (); Tian Wenlin said that the role of the U. At first, the U.S. Army entered Iraq through military invasion, overthrowing Saddams regime at that time and occupying the main facilities in Iraq. Today, an important purpose of the US militarys return to Iraq through the fight against terrorist organizations is to ensure the outcome of the Iraq war, to delineate Iraq within the sphere of American influence, and to form a deterrent to neighboring countries such as Iran and Syria. Therefore, the U.S. military will not easily spit out the meat in its mouth and withdraw from Iraq. Yu Guoqing also believes that trump governments killing of Sulaimani is a main purpose to fight against Irans forces in the Middle East, because Sulaimanis Holy City Brigade has a growing influence in many Middle East countries, which has already posed a threat to the interests of the United States in the Middle East. Therefore, the United States will not leave Iraq easily, giving Iran the opportunity to continue to expand its power. Source: new Beijing Daily Author: Xie Lian editor in charge: Han Jiapeng GUI nn9841

Tian Wenlin said that the role of the US military in Iraq has experienced a change from in front of the stage to behind the scenes. At first, the U.S. Army entered Iraq through military invasion, overthrowing Saddams regime at that time and occupying the main facilities in Iraq. Today, an important purpose of the US militarys return to Iraq through the fight against terrorist organizations is to ensure the outcome of the Iraq war, to delineate Iraq within the sphere of American influence, and to form a deterrent to neighboring countries such as Iran and Syria. Therefore, the U.S. military will not easily spit out the meat in its mouth and withdraw from Iraq.