For the first time since 2013! Spot gold rose below $1600 an ounce

 For the first time since 2013! Spot gold rose below $1600 an ounce

Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard has fired dozens of missiles at the Assad Air Force Base in Iraq, where the U.S. military is stationed, Xinhua reported. No casualties have been reported.

The Pentagon later confirmed that the missile was launched by Iran.. The White House said the U.S. side had been informed of reports of attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq. President trump has been briefed on the matter and is following developments closely.

Media quoted Iraqi security sources as saying that the U.S. Air Force Base in Iraq, Assad 8, rocket attack.

On March 3, suleymani, a senior Iranian general, was killed by us air strikes outside Baghdad International Airport. Irans top leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, later issued a statement saying that Iran would take tough revenge on the incident.

Boshi fund Wang Xiang: the mid and long term allocation value of gold market will appear.

The situation in the Middle East may be expected to continue to push up gold prices, but the possibility of the incident upgrading to a full-scale formal confrontation is not high. In the past two years, combined with the short-term and intense support of the Middle East issue for gold price and oil price, under the premise that the United States does not take the initiative to make radical choices, the short-term resilience of the U.S. economy will remain, and gold still needs to guard against the risk of high impact and falling back. In the medium and long term, the event marks the stability of the global interests of the United States or will be impacted. The market demand for overall risk pricing will drive up the gold price center, and the long-term allocation value of gold will be further reflected.

Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: in the short term, the market will continue to worry about the war between the US and Iran, which is also conducive to the further rise of gold price.

In recent years, the US dollar has continued to weaken, and with the strengthening of commodities and the rising of global inflation expectations, gold prices have gained strong support. At the same time, before the prospect of geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran is not clear, market concerns about the outbreak of war between the US and Iran have led to the warming of global risk aversion, which is also conducive to the bullion in the short term. Therefore, we think there is still room for gold price to continue to rise in the short term.

Xu Zhiyan, assistant general manager of Huaan fund and senior director of index and quantitative investment department: gold is a very important asset allocation, but this event triggered the understanding of gold assets again.

From three aspects, the demand for gold is relatively strong. First, the global macro-economy has been restored in the short term, but for example, the view of the second half of the US macro-economy and the global growth in the medium and long term are still weak. Second, the world is in a very relaxed environment, with a large number of currency issues, even negative real interest rates, and many ten-year bonds with negative yields. Third, in the global market, the European and American stock markets, especially the American stock market, are all outside a certain standard deviation, so there are certain risks in the market.

The demand for gold comes from three aspects: first, the central bank has bought 70000 tons of gold in the past few years, the second is from the gold ETF, the third is from the asset allocation, and then add uncertain risk events. Therefore, gold is a very important allocation asset, but this event once again triggered the understanding of gold assets.

Xie Yi, manager of Qianhai open source fund, is optimistic about the overall gold in 2020. It is suggested to hold it for a long time instead of band.

The overall view of gold is optimistic. The logic of gold itself has two parts. One is the economic fundamentals of the United States and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The other is the international situation. Generally speaking, this is a secondary factor, not as big as the economic fundamentals and monetary policy of the United States. But we are now in a very special stage, the so-called depression. In the depression period of technological innovation, gold will be more affected by the impact of events than other stages. And in a recession, gold will be hit more and more frequently by such events.

In 2019, the main driving force of gold comes from fundamentals. The U.S. economy is in a stagflation period, and monetary policy begins to shift. In 2020, the main factor will become event impact, because the U.S. economy has declined to the bottom, there is no worse marginal impact, and monetary policy has also turned. If there is an expansion in the table, the impact on gold will be great, but it has not been seen yet.

So in 2020, we will focus on various international events, including the situation in the Middle East from trump to the end of the year and now, including any geopolitical events that may occur in the middle. These are the main factors for this year. This is very different from last year. It is not easy to grasp the time. Therefore, it is recommended to hold it for a long time and do not make band.

CCB Fund: geopolitical influence on crude oil price, which is expected to rise further in the future.

CCB believes that with the intensification of the US Iraq conflict in the near future, the short-term oil market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is expected that Irans crude oil production and export will remain low, and Iraqs crude oil supply may also be potentially affected by geopolitical factors. At the same time, January is the time point for OPEC to increase the implementation of production reduction. Combined with the above multiple factors, it is expected that the Middle East crude oil supply will maintain a tight pattern in the first quarter, and the price is expected to rise further.

Changes in crude oil prices will also have an impact on the prices of related chemicals. First of all, it has a direct impact on the variety of methanol. Methanol is a chemical product refined by crude oil, and its price is highly related to the trend of crude oil. Iran is the main country of methanol import in China, and it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of methanol may increase. Second, it has a certain impact on PTA, which is also one of the downstream industries of crude oil industry. PX can be generated by crude oil refining, PTA is generated by PX refining, and the Middle East Due to the large proportion of regional PX production capacity and the potential impact of Persian Gulf shipping logistics, this event may give PX an additional volatility premium again, thus affecting PTA prices. The tracking targets of CChina energy chemical ETF include methanol, PTA, power coal and glass, which are highly correlated with the trend of crude oil. Investors can seize market opportunities through the layout of CChina energy chemical ETF.

Source: Netease Financial Editor: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931