Judging from the stock price trend, Teslas share price has risen nearly 50% since it jumped from the sky on October 24 last year. From the perspective of A-share new energy automobile industry chain, Ningde times (300750, stock bar) shares have broken the 100 yuan mark and are still rising after becoming the first brother of the growth enterprise market. Since November last year, the share price has risen nearly 60%, and the current market value has reached more than 240 billion yuan.
If the domestic model 3 will sell well in the future, its suppliers are likely to usher in investment opportunities. When Apples mobile phone became popular, many 10 times shares will be born.
30% of parts have been made in China
First, the performance of Apples industrial chain stocks in the past decade. According to the stock price trend of Apple related concept targets, the investment path can be roughly divided into three stages: from mid-2008 to mid-2011, from mid-2012 to mid-2015, and from mid-2015 to the end of 2017. The average investment duration of each stage index and the listed classic target is 24.3 months, 36.6 months and 24.6 months, respectively. The average time of the second investment is the longest, and the average time of the first investment and the third investment is closer, which is nearly one year shorter than the second. The average increase of the indexes and the listed classic targets in each stage is 783%, 694% and 183% respectively. Considering that a shares are in the bull market in the later stage of the second stage, the market contribution in the increase is significantly higher than that in the first and third stages.
So, will Tesla industrial chain also produce 10 times shares? First of all, the competitive advantage in the new energy vehicle market is very important. According to Oriental Securities Research Report, Tesla is in a leading market position in terms of the market pattern of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles in the United States. Since 2012, Teslas sales volume in the U.S. market has increased rapidly, from 2509 in 2012 to 190000 in 2018. In the first three quarters of 2019, the sales volume reached 136000, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Teslas market share of new energy vehicles in the United States has gradually increased, from only about 5% in 2012 to 57% in the first three quarters of 2019. From the perspective of Teslas development in the U.S. market, its products have strong competitiveness and market expansion. Among them, model 3 is the main sales force of Tesla, and the market share of one model of model 3 reaches 47.3%.
Secondly, in terms of the traditional fuel vehicle market, Oriental Securities believes that Tesla will also seize part of the traditional fuel luxury vehicle market. Judging from the situation in the United States, Tesla is now among the top luxury car brands.
Industrial Securities pointed out that the production cost of domestic model 3 is significantly lower than that of US version, and it is expected that the price reduction is mainly based on the improvement of localization rate. According to its previous calculation, under the assumption that the direct raw material cost of Chinas domestic product is expected to decrease by 10% ~ 20%, the production cost of Chinas domestic model 3 is expected to decrease by 20% ~ 28% compared with the U.S. version. If it pursues the similar gross profit rate (about 19%) with the U.S. version, the domestic version has a price reduction space of 27% ~ 34%, and the absolute price reduction amount should be 85000 ~ 108000 yuan. Previously, relevant media disclosed that 30% of domestic model 3 parts have been localized, and the localization rate of body parts is expected to reach 80% in July 2020 and 100% by the end of the year.
Private placement: focus on the leader of subdivision field
Some industry analysts believe that since the localization rate of model 3 will reach 100%, the domestic electric vehicle suppliers are likely to benefit, especially the companies with high market share.
So how to excavate the related target of Teslas A-share industry chain? According to the Research Report of Guojin securities (600109, stock bar), Teslas domestic supply chain at this stage focuses on the interior and exterior parts of the body chassis, with a small total value. According to the split, the total price of model 3 models is mainly divided into three parts, i.e. Sanye, automotive electronics and interior and exterior parts of the body chassis, with each part accounting for about 5:3:2. At present, the suppliers that have entered the market are mainly in the field of body and chassis interior and exterior decoration, which is a capital intensive industry with many and miscellaneous products and small total value. In the future, there is a large space for the expansion of product categories and value volume in the supply chain, and opportunities in the field of Sanye and automotive electronics will gradually emerge.
According to Oriental Securities Research Report, at present, Tesla mainly uses power batteries supplied by Panasonic and LG Chemical in battery system. Among the domestic listed companies, Xusheng (603305, stock bar) supplies battery pack shell, box, cooling system components and other products, while Huayu automobile (600741, stock bar) supplies battery box and other products.
Guojin Securities believes that the higher the technical barriers, the more difficult it is to replace the parts. The high technical barriers in automobiles are usually concentrated in the power system and automotive electronics (such as chips, power electronics, etc.). Due to the consideration of performance, safety and other core issues, localization is relatively difficult to replace, but once entering the supply chain, it is not easy to be replaced, such as Junsheng Electronics (600699, stock bar), etc.
It is easier to expand the core components to the assembly. If the core parts order is obtained, it is easier to expand from single part to assembly because the value has accounted for more than half in this link. For example, Sanhua intelligent control (002050, stock bar), which almost monopolizes the electronic expansion valve products as the core part of thermal management, is more easily accepted if the subsequent supply of thermal management assembly to Tesla is extended. Its not only entering Teslas supply chain, but also performance flexibility. Some private investors have said that the worlds major battery companies, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, Ningde times and BYD (002594, stock bar), are currently the most powerful companies in the world in terms of lithium battery production capacity. This pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the suppliers of these five giants will have great opportunities in the future. Diaphragm and electrolyte are two important links with great opportunities. The industrys second largest player has occupied nearly 50% of the market share and is constantly expanding production capacity. It is hard to shake its leading position.
Source: editor in charge of daily economic news: Ren Hui ufe63 nbj9607