Tight money still! Diwang 2019: suspension of market entry and loss promotion

category:Finance
 Tight money still! Diwang 2019: suspension of market entry and loss promotion


In 2019, during the period of deep regulation and control of the real estate market, the former land king with its own halo has come under the double pressure of turnover and profitability. Some of the high price land has been temporarily suspended from entering the market, and the real estate enterprises have also changed their strategies. The science and technology circle continues to change with each passing day. However, the driving force has quietly returned to the original heart, and technological innovation has become the direction of the industry. The automobile market ushered in wind and water turn in turn. Audi, which has been the champion of luxury car sales in China for 30 years, will give up the throne for the first time in 2019. Is it BMW or Mercedes Benz?

From the three fields of real estate, automobile and technology, we selected Diwang, haoche and high-tech to review the past year.

The king of the earth is famous, and eventually he is tired. How to exit after gambling enters the arena?

With low premium and high current auction, the land King tide in the land market has gone forever. On January 4, an analyst from a research institution told time weekly that in the past year, the stable attitude of the real estate market and the perception of the land market were obvious.

Recently, Keruis latest ranking of newly added value of real estate enterprises in 2019 shows that the newly added value of sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in January December exceeded 9.7 trillion yuan, down about 10% from 2018.

Among the top 100 real estate enterprises, 49% of them have a year-on-year decrease in land acquisition compared with 2018, of which 50% has a decrease of more than 30%, showing a cautious attitude.

During the period of deep regulation and control of the real estate market, the former king of the land with its own halo has also come under the double pressure of turnover and profitability.

Time weekly found that many Diwang projects scattered in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Suzhou and other places suffered from market entry procrastination. Some of the Diwang projects sold in 2016 have no opening schedule so far.

The land king of running goods, choose to sell at a loss or break even, and collect funds as soon as possible. Some other enterprises are still suffering, but the cooling down period of the real estate market is relatively long, the financial cost is snowballing, and the future profit space has been greatly reduced. On January 4, Yang Hongxu, vice president of Yiju China Research Institute, said to the times weekly.

Some landlords are temporarily suspended from entering the market

When taking the land, the stars hold the moon. Before entering the market, it is blocked by mountains and mountains. This is the true portrayal of some kings of the land at present.

In September 2016, in the first local auction after the purchase restriction in Suzhou, Renheng won the plot of SUDI 2016-wg-46 with a price of 2.067 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38700 yuan / m2 and a premium rate of 81.03%, refreshing the regional land King record.

At the beginning of 2020, the former king of Renheng, next to the couple garden of Suzhou ancient city and at the foot of the xiangmen city wall, is in the process of construction towards heaven and earth. Plot planning shows that the residential part will be built into townhouses and single family villas.

However, for the sales situation of the project, on January 3, the relevant person in charge of Renheng land Suzhou company replied to the reporter of time weekly: there is no clear timetable for the time being.

At the back channel of the Pearl River in Guangzhou, a land King project, which has set a record of the highest unit price in the land market in Guangzhou and has been kept up to now, has also been delayed in development and has not yet entered the market.

In March 2017, time China pushed 24 real estate enterprises, including Vanke and China Resources, to acquire the plot ah051028 of Shigang road with a total price of 2.037 billion yuan and a floor price of about 55400 yuan / m2, which set a record of the highest unit price in Guangzhou.

Recently, when the reporter of the times weekly visited the plot, he saw that a building higher than the wall had been built in the construction site. The staff disclosed to the reporter that this is a planned school in the plot. The whole project is expected to be built in two years. As for when to start selling houses, he said he was not clear.

As for the profit space of the king of the land, the outside world is struggling for the development enterprises, but the times China side is optimistic. Cen Zhaoxiong, chairman of the board of directors and chief executive of the company, once responded to the media, I dont think this land is expensive and predicted that it will bring good returns.

Similar to the time when China won the most expensive unit price in Guangzhou, Rongxin was frequently asked about the opening time and profit prospects after it pocketed Shanghai Jingan Diwang.

In August 2016, with a total price of 11.01 billion yuan, a nominal floor price of 100000 yuan / square meter, a floor price of 143000 yuan / square meter of saleable area and a premium rate of 139%, Rongxin China won the Zhongxing community King project in Jingan District, Shanghai, and set a new record of the most expensive king in the land transaction history.

Up to now, the king of the land has not yet opened the market, and the industry even estimates that the project development cycle will reach more than 50 months.

Recently, a person in a real estate enterprise told the times weekly that when taking the land, flour price is significantly higher than bread. In the current context of more stringent price limit, pushing the price means loss.

On January 3, on issues such as the pace of project development, relevant personnel of Rongxin China responded to the reporter of the times weekly that Vanke was responsible for the project.

On January 6, relevant people of Vanke Shanghai told time weekly that there was no opening schedule for the time being, and the latest information would be informed in time.

Poor sales of some projects

Looking at the industry, many landlords who enter the market are indeed in a dilemma of unsalable or loss.

I originally wanted to trade time for space, but now it seems that there is no sign of easing the price limit. The ceiling of the price is there, either to continue to deposit funds, or to enter the market at a small profit or loss. January 4, Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi told time weekly.

Among the 16 typical Diwang projects that Kerui has entered the market, Beijing Lingxiu, the fastest unit price Diwang project in Pinggu District, has a floor price of up to 14300 yuan / square meter when taking the land, and an average sales price of only 21200 yuan / square meter, which is lower than the average sales price of commercial residential housing stipulated in the transfer agreement.

In addition to being neglected by the king in the outskirts of Beijing, the king in the outskirts of Shanghai also suffered from unsalable sales, and the profit space was severely limited.

The most typical Gucun plate diwangyangxi project, under the price limit tight hoop curse, the price of the project is pressed to about 62000 yuan / square meter, while the price of the floor for the project has reached 53700 yuan / square meter.

The 344 houses launched for the first time in the opening of the project only sold 80 on the opening day, with the removal rate as low as 23%. Since then, the project has made a marketing gimmick of buy a house and send a BMW, and the performance of decentralization is still flat.

All the way down to Guangzhou real estate market, MCC real estate wants to use the king of land to pry the way of urban layout, which is currently facing many tests.

In August and November 2016, MCC real estate spent 6.749 billion yuan to purchase two Diwang located in Huangpu District and Haizhu District, and obtained the admission ticket to enter the Guangzhou market. Among them, the plot of Wanbao refrigerator factory, Jiangyan Road, Haizhu District, equivalent to 42600 yuan / m2 of floor price.

On January 1, the reporter of time weekly visited the MCC Yijing mansion in Haizhu District as the buyer. Due to no appointment, the project security stopped the reporter, and the project belongs to capital verification.

Subsequently, the staff of the Sales Office introduced to the times weekly that the project is selling low-density residential buildings with a practical area of 700? 1000 square meters, with a total price of about 50 million yuan. The ten million asset capital verification should be carried out before booking a house visit, which undoubtedly greatly increased the threshold of house visit.

According to yangguangjiayuan, the official website of Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of land and housing administration, on December 20, 2019, MCC Yijing mansion received a pre-sale certificate for a total of 45 apartments. As of January 6, the total number of units sold for the project is still displayed as 0.

Strategy transformation of real estate enterprises

Statistics show that in 2016, known as the year of Diwang, more than 350 Diwang with unit price and total price were born. This blowout trend gradually weakened in the following years, but the Diwang did not disappear completely.

At present, the king of the land will suffer for about three periods. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2016, the land kings appeared in the first tier, the strong second tier, the eastern third tier and the metropolitan area; in 2017, some high price land was born in the second tier cities; and from the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018, the heat of the real estate market was transmitted to the third and fourth tier, and some high price land was sold. Many of them are trapped. Yang Hongxu said.

On January 5, Liu Cheng, director of the investment department of China Urban Development Research Institute, told time weekly that the profit of Diwang project depends on the rising land market price.

Liu Cheng believes that at present, the real estate is in the overall stable stage, and it is difficult for Diwang to obtain the expected income through market-oriented means. Real estate enterprises rely more on the adjustment of policy supporting or other conditions negotiated with the government to promote the operation of Diwang project.

For the real estate enterprises that have captured the land king, they are faced with a choice between actively seizing the land and waiting for the opportunity.

On January 4, the regional marketing director of a medium-sized real estate enterprise told the times weekly that, on the whole, the market entry of the Diwang project acquired by the company in the early years was expected, but in recent two years, the land acquisition became more rational, and the proportion of land acquired through cooperation, acquisition and other means was also increasing.

In fact, many real estate enterprises have changed their own development strategies with the change of land acquisition rules in hot cities, such as price limit, land price competition, self support competition, and scheme competition.

The development boundary of large cities, especially the first tier cities, has been established, and the decrease of new land supply is an established fact. If only through bidding, auction, hanging and taking the land development, the cost will be higher. Lu Wenxi analysis said that under the situation that open market land is hard to find, many enterprises have turned the battlefield to old city reconstruction and merger and acquisition.

Looking back on the past year, leading real estate enterprises competed to seize the beach the old reform.

Take Guangzhou market as an example. In 2019, in addition to local real estate enterprises such as poly, Fuli, Shidai, Aoyuan, Yuexiu, etc., which participated in the old reform, there are also foreign real estate enterprises such as Shenglong group. Among them, Shenglong won 4 old villages in Guangzhou, with the investment of up to 20 billion yuan.

Meanwhile, the M & a market is active.

Rongchuangs acquisition of Dongjiadu project, Shimaos planned acquisition of Fusheng projects asset package, etc. from a number of M & A cases, the target of real estate enterprises m & A has gradually changed from a small fish to a large fish with a certain scale, and the M & A has entered the stage of big fish eat big fish.

Under the condition of prudent and multi-channel land acquisition, research and analysis of Kerui real estate pointed out that in 2019, the land transaction volume of top 100 real estate enterprises was lower than that of the same period of last year, and it is expected that the land market transaction volume in 2020 will not grow significantly.

In his opinion, from the perspective of capital, the financing environment of real estate enterprises is highly strained, the tight money is still the same, the attitude of land acquisition is more cautious, and it is expected that the land market rate in 2020 will also remain low.

Source: time weekly editor: Wang Xiaowu NF