Explore Tesla Shanghai Super factory: Construction in full swing
Tesla is entering the Chinese market at an unimaginable speed. It took Tesla only one year to break the ground in January 2019, to enter the commissioning stage on October 15, and then to officially deliver the domestic model 3 on January 7.
Tesla Shanghai Super factory
In January this year, the $2 billion Tesla Shanghai Super factory was officially started. This is the first super factory built by Tesla in China, from which the domestic model 3 to be fully delivered will be produced. According to Teslas plan, the Shanghai plant will integrate R & D, manufacturing, sales and other functions, and is expected to be fully constructed and implemented in two or three years.
The white facade and huge Tesla logo are displayed on the outer wall of the workshop. From the scene, the main body of the first phase of Tesla Shanghai factory has been completed. There are also some building materials stacked in the open space near the factory, and the charging station and other facilities have been formed. Weve reached phase 1.5. Were working overtime during this period. A worker told reporters.
According to previously disclosed construction documents, Tesla phase 1.5 project includes a production workshop and an energy center. Tesla also recently disclosed that we will continue to focus on expanding the capacity of the U.S. and the newly built Shanghai Super plant. Although the construction of the Shanghai Super plant started 12 months ago, we have produced 1000 vehicles and started to deliver them. At the same time, it has reached a production speed of more than 3000 units per week, excluding the local battery packs that were only produced at the end of December.
Tesla factory workers
The workshop here has been put into use for a long time. Every day, we can see the flatbed car dragging by the door. Factory workers told reporters that hundreds of cars were parked in the factory, and every day new cars were hauled to delivery centers or retail terminals across the country. At the gate of the factory, the reporter saw that a large truck with six cars left the Tesla factory, with the model 3 logo printed on the rear of the car. Within half an hour, 36 model 3 vehicles were transported from the factory.
Model 3 shipped from Tesla plant
Musk had previously predicted that Tesla would deliver 360000 to 400000 vehicles in 2019. According to the latest data, in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla achieved production of nearly 105000 vehicles and delivery of about 112000 vehicles. So far, in 2019, Tesla delivered about 367500 vehicles, an increase of 50% over the previous year, and achieved the annual goal.
Tesla experience store: queuing for test drive at weekends
In addition to the speed and passion of building Shanghai factory, Tesla continues to ignite the topic. On January 3, Tesla announced a price reduction of 32000 yuan to 323800 yuan for the upgraded model 3 standard. After subtracting 2475 yuan of Chinas new energy subsidies, the price is 299000 yuan, and the breakdown is 300000 yuan.
The first weekend after the price reduction news was sent out, the reporter came to Teslas Shanghai Jinqiao experience store, which was crowded. The staff said that nearly 100 customers booked online in the store on Saturday morning, and the number of people queuing for the test drive was far more than usual. Now, the best choice for the test drive is when there are few people in the working day..
Tesla experience store at weekends
The reporter observed the model 3 exhibition in the store. Unlike the imported model 3, the model 3 made in China was printed with the words Tesla on the back. It is reported that the domestic model 3 has a comprehensive endurance of 445 km, and the acceleration time of 100 km is 5.6 seconds. If you buy a domestic model 3, you will get a new energy license plate. According to the average price of 90000-100000 yuan in Shanghai, this model 3 is equivalent to saving a Shanghai license plate money for car owners. Staff said that the people who came to see the car at the weekend asked the most about the price and policy issues.
There are three more words at the rear of domestic model 3
Domestic model 3 front box
When it comes to the localization of model 3, the staff introduced that the current parts mainly come from the United States and are assembled in China, because there was no time to recruit domestic suppliers before.. Including the first batch of batteries imported from Panasonic, domestic batteries may be used in the future, and the domestic rate will be higher.
According to Tesla, the localization rate of domestic model 3 delivered to the first owners is 30%. By the middle of 2020, the localization rate will reach 70%, and by the end of the year, the localization rate will be 100%.
Experience Tesla accessories displayed in the store
According to Societe Generale Securities, under the assumption that the direct raw material cost of Chinas domestic product is expected to decrease by 10% - 20%, the production cost of Chinas domestic model 3 is expected to decrease by 20% - 28% compared with the U.S. version. If it pursues the similar gross profit rate (about 19%) with the U.S. version, the domestic version has 27% - 34% price reduction space, corresponding to the absolute price reduction amount of 85000-108000.
With the mass delivery of model 3, Tesla is also expanding infrastructure such as charging piles. In 2019, Tesla will open 112 super charging stations and 874 charging posts. So far, the number of super charging piles built in mainland China has exceeded 2300, and the number of charging piles in destinations has exceeded 2100.
Experience the new car waiting area outside the store
The reporter noted that there is a V3 super charging pile built opposite the Tesla Shanghai Jinqiao experience store. On December 27, 2019, Tesla built the first V3 super charging pile in China at Shanghai Jinqiao super charging station and opened it to the outside world. The V3 super charging pile officially entered the Chinese market.
Tesla Super Charge point
With the mass delivery of domestic Tesla in China, more super charging stations will be opened in 2020. Tesla expects to add more than 4000 super charging piles in China in 2020, double the total number of super charging piles built in the past five years.
Tesla speed accelerator is the full support of the Chinese government and banks. On January 10, 2019, the regulations on investment management of automobile industry issued by the national development and Reform Commission was officially implemented, allowing foreign enterprises of new energy vehicles to set up wholly-owned factories in China. On the same day, Tesla completed the filing and took a key step in terms of vehicle manufacturing qualification. In the second half of 2019, Tesla model was included in the catalogue of new energy vehicle models exempt from vehicle purchase tax, enjoying new energy vehicle tax relief and subsidies. In terms of land, the land price of Shanghai factory is only half of the market price (1125 yuan / m2). In terms of finance, in March 2019, Tesla obtained RMB 3.5 billion of unsecured loans from the syndicate, with the loan interest rate of 90% of the central banks annual benchmark interest rate. Recently, Tesla has obtained loans with a term of 5 years and a total of 10 billion yuan from several banks such as China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. The interest rate is only 90% of the one-year benchmark interest rate, or 3.915%, which is equivalent to the minimum interest rate that the best quality state-owned enterprises can possibly obtain.
According to foreign media statistics, Tesla enlivens two billion dollar direct suppliers (more than 2000) and 800 million dollar indirect suppliers in California. In the same way, with the construction of Shanghai factory, it will strongly promote the development of domestic new energy vehicle industry chain.
Deconstruction of Tesla industrial chain: the highest value of power battery link
In 2018, a German engineering company purchased model 3 and disassembled it. According to its analysis, the total price of model 3 is mainly divided into three parts, namely, three electric (electric motor control, power battery, vehicle controller), automobile electronics and interior and exterior decoration of vehicle chassis, each part accounts for about 5:3:2. Unlike traditional car companies, Teslas suppliers are not classified into tier 1 and tier 2, but only direct suppliers and indirect suppliers, reducing the hierarchy. According to statistics, there are more than 130 suppliers directly and indirectly involved in Teslas supply chain, with Chinese enterprises accounting for more than half of them. Although there are many Chinese enterprises, they are few direct suppliers, most of them are indirect suppliers, and they focus on parts with relatively low value, interior and exterior parts of car bodies. In general, in Teslas supply chain, the battery link is dominated by Japanese manufacturers. The core hardware such as chips and millimeter wave radars are still dominated by European and American manufacturers. The most critical control technologies such as BMS (battery management system) and motor control are independently developed by Tesla.
According to the split, the power battery assembly link accounts for about 40% of the value of Tesla Model 3, which is the core competitiveness of Tesla electric vehicles, making its battery endurance level far higher than that of its peers. The suppliers of this part are mainly Japanese manufacturers and Teslas independent research and development. Specifically, the power battery accounts for about 30% of the value, and the thermal management system and BMS account for 5% and 3% respectively. According to an interview with Tesla related personnel by e company reporter, Tesla battery supplier is Panasonic, which plans to introduce LG Chemical due to its capacity bottleneck. In the field of thermal management system and BMS, relevant schemes and designs are completed by Tesla itself, and most of the companys patents are concentrated here. Tesla optimizes the modules of the battery cell. Under the condition of ensuring the basic quality of the battery cell, Teslas battery management technology can make the single battery play the most energy efficiency. The chief analyst of automobile industry of a securities firm pointed out that Tesla battery management system involves many patented algorithms, which enables Tesla to achieve the farthest range in the case of the same weight of battery. In addition, in low temperature environment, the mileage is not much reduced, and there is no need to rely on diesel for heating. At present, Teslas BMS technology is the first in the automotive industry.
The value of the automotive electronics segment accounts for about 30%, half of which is visual computing processor. Tesla told e company: in April 2019, Tesla released the FSD based on self-developed chip (automatic driving computer), the cost of autopilot system dropped significantly, and the application chip was gradually replaced by NVIDIA. According to the researcher of Guojin securities, at present, Teslas autopilot technology is relatively mature. On the basis of hardware and OTA, it collects relevant data of sold vehicles and continuously optimizes the performance of ADAS. Combined with highly integrated electronic architecture, it is absolutely ahead of other vehicle enterprises in vehicle layout.
The parts of body, interior and exterior decoration and chassis account for about one fifth of the total value, of which the parts of body, interior and exterior decoration and chassis account for half respectively. The difference between this part and the electric vehicle is relatively small, and the technical content is not high, which belongs to the capital intensive type. At present, most of the domestic enterprises entering the Tesla industrial chain are concentrated in this link, represented by the aluminum casting industry.
Domestic enterprises are mostly concentrated at the bottom of Tesla industrial chain
As a whole, the domestic enterprises that have entered the Tesla supplier list are mostly concentrated in the interior and exterior parts of the body chassis with small value content. Even the manufacturers that have entered the field with high value content of Tesla are mostly suppliers of parts, which are at the bottom of the industrial chain. With the operation of Tesla Shanghai Super factory, the localization industry chain will continue to grow.
In Teslas core battery field, according to Bloomberg, Ningde times has reached an initial agreement with Tesla on battery supply, but it has not really entered into Teslas industrial chain yet. Due to the capacity problem, Tesla will probably switch the main battery supplier to LG in the future, so it is recommended to select the target of LG industry chain in the battery segmentation field, said an auto industry analyst of a large securities firm It is understood that LG battery materials have a high degree of localization, including electrolyte procurement Guotai, xinzebang, anode procurement putailai, Shanshan, battery part diaphragm Enjie shares, battery structural parts procurement Kodali, etc.
For another core area of Tesla: thermal management system and BMS, the manufacturers involved include Junsheng electronics, Sanhua intelligent control, etc., mainly parts suppliers. Sanhua intelligent control once said that its company Sanhua steam zero exclusively supplies 7 thermal management parts projects for Model3, including thermal expansion valve with solenoid valve, electronic expansion valve, electronic oil pump, oil cooler, water-cooled plate, battery cooler and pressure block. The value of a single car is 2000 yuan. And the company exclusively supplies model s and X and electronic expansion valve, the value of a single car is about 250 yuan. Junsheng electronics has said that its products supplied to Tesla cover passive safety, window keys, BMS sensors, and battery circuit protection systems.
In the automotive electronics sector, among the domestic listed companies, Junsheng electronics mainly supplies sensor HMI control products and automotive safety products; Xusheng shares supplies transmission system, suspension system, battery system, etc.; NavInfo is Teslas exclusive navigation map supplier, and Changxin technology supplies center control panel module products.
In the automobile industry, for the manufacturing industries with low technical barriers such as body and interior and exterior decoration and relying on the cost of assembly, due to factors such as cheaper labor and raw materials, most domestic manufacturers have mastered relevant technologies and have more cost advantages compared with international manufacturers. At present, many manufacturers have entered the Tesla supply chain in this link. Analysts from several securities companies said that with Teslas cost reduction demand, domestic manufacturers have a greater opportunity to further increase the proportion of supply to Tesla in the future.
In the body system part, domestic enterprises entering Teslas supply chain mainly include: Huayu automobile supplies products such as body sub assembly parts, side wall, rear cover mold, etc.; Wencan shares supplies products such as aluminum alloy body structure parts, etc.; Changzhou aluminum shares supplies body aluminum alloy. In the field of interior and exterior decoration system, Huayu automobile supplies products such as chair and bumper; Daimei shares supplies products such as sun visor; Junsheng Electronics supplies products such as driver airbag and steering wheel; Ningbo Huaxiang supplies products such as decoration strip. In the chassis part, tope Group supplies lightweight aluminum alloy chassis structure parts and large body structure parts for Tesla, and Baolong technology supplies TPMS products.
In an interview with the media recently, musk said: Tesla has pushed software upgrade packages to users, adding multiple games and video playback functions. In the future, car owners will be able to give driving to automatic driving on the road, and they can play games, watch videos and deal with affairs. This future is not far away. It can be seen that Musks definition of Tesla vehicles is computers on four wheels using new energy. Judging from Teslas current technology level and sales momentum, Tesla is likely to emerge as a successful disruptor, just like Apples redefining of mobile phones.
Thanks to Apples rapid development, Apples industrial chain has contributed nearly ten times as many a shares in the past decade. Seven years ago, there were only eight Chinese manufacturers among Apples 156 global suppliers. However, according to the information released by apple on the worlds top 200 suppliers in 2019, the number of apple industry chain suppliers in mainland China has nearly tripled, and the proportion of suppliers has risen to 15%. Tesla and apple are highly consistent in product and brand positioning, industry disruption, production mode and business model. Its industrial chain is expected to replicate or even surpass the pull of Apples industrial chain on Chinese manufacturing enterprises in the future.
At present, the higher the proportion of Teslas order revenue and orders in the value of Teslas single car, the easier it is to benefit from Teslas rapid development. In terms of revenue, Xusheng stock is the most typical and the first target to enter Teslas industrial chain. Over 50% of its revenue comes from Teslas orders. In the first half of 2019, the revenue generated by Teslas orders for Xusheng shares was RMB 262 million, accounting for 52%. From the beginning, Xusheng entered its supply chain through the mode of small batch customization, and continued to deepen cooperation for Teslas main gearbox boxes, battery pack housings, etc., with the value of model 3 aluminum alloy die casting single car more than 2000 yuan.
There are two possibilities for the high value of single car matching: one is that the supply products are more core and the unit price is higher; the other is that the product line itself is rich and the product categories can be expanded through initial cooperation, and the unit price of each piece is relatively small but the quantity and types are more. Taking top group as an example, due to the variety of products winning the bid, the matching value of model 3 single car in Shanghai factory has reached 5000-6000 yuan.
Compared with the history of Apples industrial chain change, the future investment space brought by Teslas industrial chain is mainly focused on the market opening brought by parts replacement and new technology change.
At present, Tesla parts suppliers still have a large proportion of joint ventures or foreign brands. With the increasing demand for cost reduction, the near distance advantage of Shanghai plant in the Yangtze River Delta auto zero industry may further increase. According to an auto industry analyst at a securities firm, relying on SAIC Group, Chinas largest car manufacturer, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have formed a more mature industrial chain, and most of the parts needed by Shanghai factories can be covered. The reporter of E company of Securities Times sorted out the main parts manufacturers positions in Tesla Model 3 supply chain, which are basically located within 500 kilometers of Shanghai factory.
In addition, at present, due to the recession of the automobile market, the promotion of automobile has increased to compress the profit space of the whole machine factory, and the whole machine factory has to press the price upstream to reduce the cost. As a result, the original firm industrial chain supply system is being broken by the interests, and the whole machine factory, for its own interests, prefers to use domestic parts with good quality and low price. Similar to the demonstration effect of Apples industrial chain, Teslas supply chain improves the companys recognition and is expected to obtain orders from other vehicle enterprise platforms. Take Sanhua intelligent control as an example, after entering the Tesla supply chain, it has continuously won the orders of Volkswagen, general motors, Volvo and other vehicle enterprises with a total of 14 billion parts.
Similar to Apples big screen smart phone instead of ordinary mobile phone trend, Tesla brings new technology innovation such as new energy vehicle power battery, automatic driving system and so on, or urges Chinas new subdivision industry leader. For the new technology, due to the uncertainty of the technical route and the lack of a solid supply chain relationship, the domestic parts enterprises have time and space to make achievements in the subdivision field, so the corner overtaking becomes the leader in the subdivision field, an automobile industry analyst told e company In this regard, the analyst recommends enterprises with certain accumulation and influence in tire pressure monitoring, millimeter wave radar system, Internet of vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell and other fields.
In addition, the outbreak of Tesla will play a catfish effect on the new energy vehicle market. 2019 is the turning point of the electric vehicle industry. The sharp decline of subsidies drives the industry into the era of micro subsidies, and a broader reshuffle of domestic new energy industry is coming. The Research Report of Fortune Securities pointed out that the good performance of model 3 is expected to change the inherent negative impression of low quality, unreliable or fraudulent subsidy of domestic new energy vehicles in the current market, play a role as a model of apple in consumer electronics, promote the promotion of brand product strength of domestic new energy vehicles, and improve the penetration of new energy vehicles in the overall market.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang bin_nf4368