Who will benefit from the new years first comprehensive reduction of the standard and the landing of 800 billion red envelopes from now on?

category:Finance
 Who will benefit from the new years first comprehensive reduction of the standard and the landing of 800 billion red envelopes from now on?


On January 1, the central bank decided to reduce the reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) on January 6, 2020.

The central bank said that the reduction was a comprehensive one, reflecting counter cyclical regulation, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds, effectively increasing the stable sources of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy and directly supporting the real economy.

This is the fourth decline since 2019. Previously, in January 2019, the central bank announced a full reduction of 1 percentage point; in May 2019, the central bank decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of rural commercial banks serving the county to the level of rural credit cooperatives. In September 2019, the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction of 0.5 percentage points and a targeted reduction of 1 percentage point.

The Research Report of Northeast Securities pointed out that the liquidity pressure in January was significantly higher than that in previous years due to factors such as the early issuance of local special bonds, the move forward of the Spring Festival and the payment of taxes. Affected by the advance of Spring Festival 2020 to January, the large amount of cash withdrawal demand of residents will also move forward, which will lead to a significant increase in M0 and cash on hand in January, leading to a tightening of inter-bank liquidity. Therefore, it is a reasonable choice to reduce the reserve ratio and release the liquidity.

Data chart: bank staff count currency.

China News Service

Photographer Zhang Yun

Target beneficiaries: small and micro enterprises and private enterprises

The head of the central bank said that the reduction in standards supports the development of the real economy. This reduction has increased the sources of funds for financial institutions. Large banks should focus on services. Small and medium banks should focus more on the main business and actively use the reduction funds to increase support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.

It is reported that in the overall reduction, only small and medium-sized banks, such as urban commercial banks operating in the provincial administrative region, rural commercial banks serving the county, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives and rural banks, obtained long-term capital of about 120000000000 Yuan, which is conducive to strengthening the financial strength of small and medium-sized banks serving small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.

At the same time, the reduction of the standard reduces the banks capital cost by about 15 billion yuan per year. Through bank transmission, the actual cost of social financing can be reduced, especially the financing cost of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.

Zeng Gang, deputy director of the national finance and development laboratory, said that the reduction will keep the liquidity reasonable and abundant, reduce the capital cost of banks, and the financing cost of the real economy is expected to further decline. At the same time, it will dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, guide the fund to tilt towards small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, and then help stabilize the growth.

Data chart: shareholders in the trading hall of a securities company.

China News Service

Indirect beneficiary 1: stock market

In the past, a fall in reserve would have been good for the stock market.

Affected by the news of the downgrade, on January 2, the first trading day in 2020, a shares welcomed the start. The three major stock indexes opened higher, with the Shanghai index rising more than 1%, approaching 3100, reaching an eight month high; the Shenzhen Composite Index and the growth enterprise market index once rose more than 2%, and the double hit an 18 month high.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that the reduction of the standard will protect the capital and help the issuance of local bonds, which is conducive to economic stability, enhance investor confidence, support the equity market center to rise upward, and the stock market has a high probability of continuing the turbulent market in spring.

Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the financial research center of Bank of communications, believes that the first day of the new year will further strengthen the markets expectation of policy easing, significantly boost the markets risk appetite and make amorous feelings, and the short-term market of the capital market is still worth looking forward to.

Looking forward to the stock market in 2020, CITIC Securities said that in 2020, the profit growth rate of A-share will rise steadily after bottoming out. In the macro-economic decisive environment, capital market reform and corporate profit recovery, A-share is expected to usher in the well-off cattle for 2-3 years.

The reduction is not for real estate, but for reducing the financing cost of enterprises. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, thinks that from the perspective of history, as long as the reduction of the standard is good for real estate, it can relieve the pressure on capital. Reducing the standard can certainly alleviate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises, and can also obtain relatively stable credit price for the mortgage of the buyer.

Zhang Dawei said that the purpose of reducing the standard is certainly not to breathe for the property market, but it is difficult to avoid that the property market will benefit. Real estate is not stable, and it is difficult for the economy to achieve stable growth. The stability of capital brought by the reduction of the standard is conducive to the stability of the real estate market. In 2020, it is possible for the market to reappear xiaoyangchun, which is stabilizing. However, in 2020, the trend of the real estate market mainly depends on the real estate credit line and the strength of talent policy.

Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that from the current situation, the financial environment of the real estate market is expected to be further relaxed, especially in the fields of real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans, which will help to drive more bank loans into the market and have a more positive impact on the real estate market.

Yan Yuejin said that liquidity in the market has increased after the reduction, which is expected to further reduce the LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market), and the mortgage interest rate may be lower, thus reducing the cost of house purchase. At least it can stimulate the real estate transaction in January. At this time, we should also be alert to the possibility of rising prices.

Tang Jianwei said the reduction had no direct impact on the real estate market. Of course, after the overall market liquidity is relaxed, the financing environment of the real estate industry may also be improved.

Outlook: will it be reduced this year?

The central bank said that the reduction of the reserve ratio is a hedge against the cash investment before the Spring Festival, and the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable, flexible and moderate, rather than flooding, which reflects the scientific and steady control of the counter cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, and the orientation of stable monetary policy has not changed. Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the overall reduction of the standard adhered to the steady monetary policy. By releasing low-cost long-term funds to replace short-term high-cost funds, the market liquidity was kept reasonable and abundant, and the liquidity structure was more optimized. Wen bin believes that in the next stage, there is still room and necessity for a comprehensive reduction. Combined with directional reduction, it is expected that there will be another 2-3 times of reduction. Tang Jianwei pointed out that the possibility of interest rate cut in the first quarter is relatively small from the perspective of more scientific and stable use of policy tools by the central bank. Maintain the judgment that the central bank will reduce the standard by 2-3 times in 2020, 0.5 percentage points each time, and the operating interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) in the whole year will be reduced by 25-30bp. (end) source of this article: China News Net editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu NF

The central bank said that the reduction of the reserve ratio is a hedge against the cash investment before the Spring Festival, and the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable, flexible and moderate, rather than flooding, which reflects the scientific and steady control of the counter cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, and the orientation of stable monetary policy has not changed.

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the overall reduction of the standard adhered to the steady monetary policy. By releasing low-cost long-term funds to replace short-term high-cost funds, the market liquidity was kept reasonable and abundant, and the liquidity structure was more optimized.

Wen bin believes that in the next stage, there is still room and necessity for a comprehensive reduction. Combined with directional reduction, it is expected that there will be another 2-3 times of reduction.

Tang Jianwei pointed out that the possibility of interest rate cut in the first quarter is relatively small from the perspective of more scientific and stable use of policy tools by the central bank. Maintain the judgment that the central bank will reduce the standard by 2-3 times in 2020, 0.5 percentage points each time, and the operating interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) in the whole year will be reduced by 25-30bp. (end)