Rising tensions in the Middle East highlight the risk of oil price volatility

category:Finance
 Rising tensions in the Middle East highlight the risk of oil price volatility


Will Iran retaliate?

In a statement, the U.S. Defense Department said Sulaimani was behind the attacks on U.S. diplomats and military personnel in Iraq and the region. He and the Al Quds brigade killed hundreds of U.S. and International Union soldiers and injured thousands of others. President trump ordered the attack on Sulaimani.

Tang Zhichao, director of the Political Research Office of the West Asia and Africa Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Iraqs Shiite militia is an important card in Irans struggle against the United States; the U.S. move aims to force Iran to stop in Iraq and stop provocation and threat to the United States.

Ding long, deputy dean of the Foreign Languages College of the University of foreign economic relations and trade, pointed out that Sulaimani played an important role in the anti American armed movement and the surrounding conflicts in Iraq, and his death was a major blow to Irans ability of military activities abroad.

Iran reacted strongly to the bombing of Sulaimani, with supreme leader Khamenei, President Rouhani and foreign minister Zarif all giving strong warnings to the United States. Khamenei said it would be severe retaliation waiting for the United States.

Iran will hold the United States legally responsible for the bombing of suleymani, state television reported Wednesday, citing foreign minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif as the source.

This is clearly a terrorist act... Iran will launch a variety of legal measures at the international level to hold the United States responsible for the assassination of suleymani.

Other cyber security experts warned Wednesday that hackers supported by Iran may use malware to attack us targets such as factories, oil and gas processing facilities.

Robert Marley, chairman of the international crisis research organization, said Trumps order to air strike the Holy City Brigade is actually a declaration of war, which will surely bring more retaliatory attacks on the Iranian side.

However, some experts believe that the United States and Iran will maintain a certain degree of restraint, and the two sides may not open a comprehensive conflict.

Wu Bingbing, director of the Institute of Arab Islamic culture at Peking University, also believes that Irans response to the attack may be more restrained, because Iran is very clear that once it confronts the United States in an all-round way, it will bear enormous pressure and suffer heavy losses. The trump administration is also reluctant to interfere with the presidential election by taking full military action against Iran. Both sides will avoid long-term and large-scale military conflicts.

Many countries call for restraint

In response to the attack, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press conference on the 3rd that China has always opposed the use of force in international relations and urged all parties concerned, especially the US side, to maintain calm and restraint and avoid further escalation of tensions.

French President Marcon spoke by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday to discuss the situation in the Middle East, the French presidential palace said in a press release. President of France and Russia agreed to maintain close communication in the next few days and called on all parties to exercise restraint.

Makron and Erdogan expressed their common concern about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East region and believed that it was necessary to avoid the escalation of dangerous situations.

The Syrian foreign ministry said in a statement that Syria expresses full sympathy and solidarity with Iraq and Iran, strongly condemns the attacks launched by the United States, which is responsible for Iraqs instability, and that the U.S. policy is aimed at creating tensions and fuelling conflicts among countries in the region, which constitutes a dangerous escalation of the regional situation.

The foreign ministries of Qatar and Lebanon also issued statements calling on all parties concerned to exercise restraint and avoid a cycle of violence in the Middle East.

Oil price fluctuation risk highlights

Affected by the attacks, New York oil price and Brent oil price rose 4.75% and 4.95% respectively on the 3rd intraday, Brent oil price is only one step away from the integer level of $70 per barrel. Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at energy vision UK, said that people are concerned about what kind of retaliation Iran will take and the market will react instinctively, leading to a 3% or 4% increase in oil prices. Some analysts believe that the current oil inventory is sufficient, the production capacity is surplus, and geopolitical tension is difficult to keep the oil price at a high level. Mark heffer, global chief investment officer of wealth management of UBS group, an international asset management organization, said that the international oil market currently has sufficient capacity. Although the current tension in the Middle East is likely to cause a large risk premium to the international oil price, the impact of previous events on the market is relatively short. Source: editor in charge of daily economic news: Yang bin_nf4368

Affected by the attacks, New York oil price and Brent oil price rose 4.75% and 4.95% respectively on the 3rd intraday, Brent oil price is only one step away from the integer level of $70 per barrel.

Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at energy vision UK, said that people are concerned about what kind of retaliation Iran will take and the market will react instinctively, leading to a 3% or 4% increase in oil prices.

Some analysts believe that the current oil inventory is sufficient, the production capacity is surplus, and geopolitical tension is difficult to keep the oil price at a high level.

Mark heffer, global chief investment officer of wealth management of UBS group, an international asset management organization, said that the international oil market currently has sufficient capacity. Although the current tension in the Middle East is likely to cause a large risk premium to the international oil price, the impact of previous events on the market is relatively short.