In the first week of 2020, the situation in the Middle East will be turbulent, and the risk of war will increase sharply for a while. So what is America going to do? Will Iran really retaliate?
This photo from social media shows heavy smoke from a fire point near Baghdad International Airport in the Iraqi capital on January 3. Xinhua News Agency / Reuters
Will Iran retaliate?
In a statement, the U.S. Defense Department said Sulaimani was behind the attacks on U.S. diplomats and military personnel in Iraq and the region. He and the Al Quds brigade killed hundreds of U.S. and International Union soldiers and injured thousands of others. President trump ordered the attack on Sulaimani.
Experts believe that in addition to the revenge expressed in its statement, the more important purpose of the U.S. move is to suppress Irans position in the region and weaken its influence.
On January 3, in Tehran, Iran, a man distributed posters of Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Holy City Brigade during a March. Shen Jizhong
Ding long, deputy dean of the Foreign Languages College of the University of foreign economic relations and trade, pointed out that Sulaimani played an important role in the anti American armed movement and the surrounding conflicts in Iraq, and his death was a major blow to Irans ability of military activities abroad.
On September 24, 2019, at the United Nations headquarters in New York, President trump of the United States said in his speech at the general debate of the 74th United Nations General Assembly, unless Iran changes its threat behavior, the United States will continue to exert extreme pressure on Iran. Photo by Li Muzi, reporter of Xinhua News Agency
Iran reacted strongly to the bombing of Sulaimani, with supreme leader Khamenei, President Rouhani and foreign minister Zarif all giving strong warnings to the United States. Khamenei said it would be severe retaliation waiting for the United States.
Iran will hold the United States legally responsible for the bombing of suleymani, state television reported Wednesday, citing foreign minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif as the source.
This is clearly a terrorist act... Iran will launch a variety of legal measures at the international level to hold the United States responsible for the assassination of suleymani.
This is an information photo of Iranian President ruhani (China) attending the cabinet meeting in Tehran on September 18, 2019. (Xinhua / Reuters)
Other cyber security experts warned Wednesday that hackers supported by Iran may use malware to attack us targets such as factories, oil and gas processing facilities.
Some experts worry that if Iran retaliates against the United States, it will lead to further tensions in the Middle East.
Robert Marley, chairman of the international crisis research organization, said Trumps order to air strike the Holy City Brigade is actually a declaration of war, which will surely bring more retaliatory attacks on the Iranian side.
However, some experts believe that the United States and Iran will maintain a certain degree of restraint, and the two sides may not open a comprehensive conflict.
Ding long believes that Iran will not overreact to the attack, because in the recent protests in Iraq, the United States and Iran have become the targets of Iraqi peoples protests, and both countries are under pressure due to agent wars.
Wu Bingbing, director of the Institute of Arab Islamic culture at Peking University, also believes that Irans response to the attack may be more restrained, because Iran is very clear that once it confronts the United States in an all-round way, it will bear enormous pressure and suffer heavy losses. The trump administration is also reluctant to interfere with the presidential election by taking full military action against Iran. Both sides will avoid long-term and large-scale military conflicts.
Many countries call for restraint
In response to the attack, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press conference on the 3rd that China has always opposed the use of force in international relations and urged all parties concerned, especially the US side, to maintain calm and restraint and avoid further escalation of tensions.
French President Marcon spoke by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday to discuss the situation in the Middle East, the French presidential palace said in a press release. President of France and Russia agreed to maintain close communication in the next few days and called on all parties to exercise restraint.
On January 3, in Tehran, Iran, people took part in a march to protest the bombing of Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Holy City Brigade. Shen Jizhong
Makron and Erdogan expressed their common concern about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East region and believed that it was necessary to avoid the escalation of dangerous situations.
British Foreign Minister Dominic Labu said that Sulaimanis armed forces pose an offensive threat. After his death, Britain called on all parties to reduce the conflict, further conflict is not in our interest..
This is a security room lit by protesters outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, on December 31, 2019. Shen Jizhong
The Syrian foreign ministry said in a statement that Syria expresses full sympathy and solidarity with Iraq and Iran, strongly condemns the attacks launched by the United States, which is responsible for Iraqs instability, and that the U.S. policy is aimed at creating tensions and fuelling conflicts among countries in the region, which constitutes a dangerous escalation of the regional situation.
The foreign ministries of Qatar and Lebanon also issued statements calling on all parties concerned to exercise restraint and avoid a cycle of violence in the Middle East.
Oil price fluctuation risk highlights
Affected by the attacks, New York oil price and Brent oil price rose 4.75% and 4.95% respectively on the 3rd intraday, Brent oil price is only one step away from the integer level of $70 per barrel.
Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at energy vision UK, said that people are concerned about what kind of retaliation Iran will take and the market will react instinctively, leading to a 3% or 4% increase in oil prices.
On December 5, 2019, in Vienna, Austria, Iranian oil minister zangane (China) attended the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Photo by Guo Chen, reporter of Xinhua News Agency
Some analysts also believe that the current oil inventory is sufficient and the production capacity is surplus, and geopolitical tension is difficult to keep the oil price at a high level.