In the Middle East, which is full of dry firewood, there is always only one Mars left before the war broke out. Now the United States has lit this Mars? In the early hours of the morning of the 3rd, the US launched four Hellfire missiles at Baghdad airport, killing major general Sulaimani, commander of Holy City Brigade of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard (how important he is detailed below).
The already tense situation suddenly escalated. President trump threw explosives into a powder box, former Vice President Joe Biden said It doesnt mean war, it doesnt lead to war, it doesnt create war risks, said Andrew eckersam, a former assistant deputy secretary of defense. It is war.
Washington also feels that Tehran will not give up. 12 hours after Sulaimanis death, the U.S. Embassy in Iraq officially issued a notice of withdrawal to Iraq.
We are the free people, we are the terrorists. whats the reason why the United States said that the assassination would be the assassination of such an important political figure in other countries? Chinese netizens have also expressed their views on the matter. The microblog of the US embassy in China has turned over.
The more serious question is: how big is this? Will the world turn a corner? What does it mean for China?
Shortly after the incident, trump posted an American flag on twitter without any words. In the early morning of March 3, trump tweeted a long time, saying with his usual exaggeration: general Kassem Sulaimani killed and seriously injured thousands of Americans for a long time (Sulaimani) he should have been killed many years ago! On another twitter on the 3rd, trump said, Iran has never won a war, but has never lost a negotiation. .
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi also condemned the US militarys Assassination in Baghdad, calling it an act of aggression against Iraq and a violation of sovereignty, which will lead to war in Iraq, the region and the world.
According to the New York Times, Sulaimanis killing is a striking blow to Irans military and national pride, and a serious escalation of tensions between trump and Tehran. This is not only the killing of an important officer, but also a national hero of Iran, which is hard for the Iranian people to accept psychologically. This comment can be said to have a good grasp of the psychology of Iranians.
Iran held three days of mourning for Sulaimani. Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, said it would be ruthless revenge to wait for those with the blood of the general in their hands. There are signs that this is not bluff.
Over the past week, we have watched the situation evolve rapidly in Iraq, but the main players in the game are the United States and Iran.
On December 27, 2019, a US military base in northern Iraq was attacked by rocket, resulting in the death of one US arms contractor and the injury of four US military personnel.
The United States believes that this is what the pro Iranian militia armed Allah brigades did. Two days later, the U.S. military attacked the strongholds of the Allah brigades in Iraq and Syria, killing more than 70 people. The attack caused discontent among Iraqis. The Iraqi government has also expressed its opposition to the violation of Iraqs sovereignty.
On December 31, thousands of Iraqis surrounded the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Baghdads Green Zone, setting fire and throwing stones, causing serious clashes with security personnel and Iraqi government forces, killing and injuring dozens of people. Although no US personnel were injured, the attack on the US embassy caused outrage in Washington.
On November 4, 1979, Iranian students tried to climb the wall of the US embassy in Iran
Trump urgently ordered the Marines in Kuwait to parachute into Baghdad, and even used elite US troops. On January 2, U.S. Defense Secretary esper also said, the game has changed, and the United States may have to take preemptive action to protect American lives.
Next, the US launched a lethal missile at Sulaimani. According to the president of the international crisis organization, a president who vowed not to involve the United States in another Middle East war actually made a declaration of war..
Democratic Senator Murphy tweeted that the United States killed Irans number two without congressional authorization, knowing it could lead to a potentially large-scale regional war.
How important is Sulaimani?
A guardian article a few days ago suggested that he was one of the top 10 politicians to shape 2020.
In 2019, Khamenei awarded him the highest military medal of Iran, the zolfikar medal. This is the first time an officer has received such a medal since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. Sulaimani is also the most untouchable person in Iran. His death may completely change the relationship between the United States and Iran, US Middle East reporters said.
These, may be able to see the importance of suleymani.
Sulaimani was born in 1957. He was born in a very mediocre family. His parents were farmers. He had no higher education. When he was young, he worked as a bricklayer and a weaver.
In 1979, after the victory of the Islamic revolution, suleymani began to appear. At that time, as an activist, he entered the 500 member regiment (the predecessor of Irans Revolutionary Guard) founded by Khomeini.
In 1980, when the Iran Iraq war began, Sulaimani joined the Revolutionary Guard. During the eight years of bloody war, he repeatedly built miracles and was promoted to division head when he was less than 30 years old.
This position made him famous in the future, established his position in Iran, and finally put him on the list of people to be cleared by the United States.
The Holy City Brigade is the main military force of Irans Revolutionary Guard. It is a gathering of elites. It is specialized in overseas missions, like a special force.
Although it has only 10000 members, it is good at infiltration, guerrilla warfare and so on, becoming the backbone of Irans export of Islamic Revolution.
For a long time, Al Quds has been regarded as providing military assistance and economic support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hussein armed forces in Yemen.
These agents are the thorn in the eye of the United States or its allies, and the United States is certainly not happy.
On the other hand, the Holy City Brigade has long established a relationship with the United States in Iraq.
After the 2003 Iraq war, Sulaimani seized the power vacuum in Iraq and sent a large number of secret agents to infiltrate and support the Mahdi Army in Iraq against the US Army.
In 2007, the Holy City Brigade was entered into the list of specially designated terrorists by the United States, and senior officials such as Sulaimani were also sanctioned.
In 2014, Sulaimani resigned as brigade chief of the Holy City Brigade, but he was also considered the shadow commander of the force.
In 2014, the rise of Islamic state, a terrorist organization, unexpectedly gave the United States a sweet time with Al Quds. At that time, the Islamic state made great strides in Iraq, once conquering Mosul and forcing Baghdad.
Sulaimani was ordered to go deep into Iraq. On the one hand, the peoples mobilization army was reorganized to fight against the Islamic state. In addition, Irans arms were sent to the autonomous region in northern Iraq to resist the heavy artillery fire of the Islamic state. These are the heaviest punches for the eventual collapse of the Islamic state.
In this process, Sulaimani became famous as one of the most famous military generals in the Middle East.
In addition to the old grudges above, there have been many exchanges between the United States and Iraq over the years, including the Iran nuclear agreement. There are too many new grudges.
The western media also mentioned such a detail. In 2018, Sulaimani publicly challenged president trump of the United States. In an online video, he said: I tell you, Mr. trump, you gambler, I tell you that where you think we dont exist, we are very close to you, you will start a war, but we will end the war.
Is that a prophecy?
How will Iran retaliate? To answer this question, it depends on what strength and resources Iran has in the Middle East.
They are the new force in the game between Iran and the United States. It is not hard to imagine that it will pose an unavoidable threat to the United States. Under the tense atmosphere, the possibility of attacks on American institutions and personnel in the Middle East will increase greatly.
The spatter of Mars will only push the situation in the Middle East out of control.
How will the United States respond?
Some scholars believe that in 2020, if the United States is really going to fight a war, then the opponent is likely to be Iran rather than North Korea. Its hard to say whether to fight in Iran or in the Persian Gulf, or in Iraq or Syria, but the U.S. - Iran struggle will escalate step by step.
Although Trumps overall policy in the Middle East is to reduce investment and exit, his flexibility comes very quickly and he dares to take action on local issues. For example, two missile attacks on Syria are the same in Iraq. Trump soon made a decision to increase 750 troops.
The United States does have the military capability to wage another war. However, it has not been forgotten that in 2003, the U.S. army invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Husseins regime with the force of thunder, but 16 years ago, the Americans in Iraq often only dare to shrink in the fortress like green area of Baghdad. Did you win or lose the battle?
Another problem is that today Iraq is still a sovereign state, and is it not in violation of international law to carry out political assassination in a sovereign state? Shouldnt such behavior be condemned by the international community?
At the beginning of the 2020 new year, the US militarys killing of suleymani not only brings great uncertainty to the Middle East, but also to the whole world. For the Chinese, we should not only oppose and condemn all acts violating international morality from the general standards of international morality, but also observe and assess the development of the situation from a special perspective.
The right way of the world is vicissitudes of life!