The former Chinese ambassador to Iran: stabbing a hornets nest

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 The former Chinese ambassador to Iran: stabbing a hornets nest


Suleymani, Irans living martyr, died in a US air raid.

For Shias in the Middle East, hes a mixture of James Bond, Rommel and Lady Gaga. For the west, he is the commander of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Holy City Brigade, responsible for exporting Irans Islamic revolution, supporting terrorists, subverting Pro western government, and launching Irans overseas war.

Time magazine described Sulaimani, Irans top general, among the 100 most influential people in the world in 2017.

Suleymani, regarded as a national hero by Iran, stood out in the iran iran iran war, and Khamenei, Irans top leader, hailed him as the living martyr. As the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards overseas operations, Sulaimani, the spy king of the Middle East, has also become a symbol of Irans power in the Middle East.

During the Syrian civil war, Sulaimani helped the Assad Government: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi and Afghan militias, and Russians. During his first visit to Iran since the Syrian civil war, Assad met directly with Khamenei and Sulaimani, without even knowing it in advance.

In the war against Isis in Iraq, Sulaimani appeared in Amiri in northern Iraq, helping Amiri become the first town in Iraq to successfully resist Isis attack. The former Iraqi transport minister said in a thank-you speech that if it were not for Sulaimani, the Iraqi government would have been in exile.

In the Israel Lebanon war in 2006, Sulaimani appeared on the battlefield as a consultant of Hezbollah in Lebanon; in the Yemen war, Sulaimani participated in the formulation of plans to support the Hussein armed forces.

Some commentators compared the US President Trumps order to kill suleymani to the Iranian presidents order to assassinate US Secretary of state pompeio. Khamenei has warned that the United States will face tough retaliation..

Where will the situation in the middle east go in the future? Former Chinese ambassador to Iran Hua Liming has interpreted the interface news.

Interface news: how does Sulaimani exist in Iran?

Hua Liming: Sulaimanis international reputation is mainly established in the last decade, especially after the Syrian civil war. Irans military forces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and other countries are all under the command of Sulaimani.

He is a commander with strong leadership and is highly valued by Khamenei. The western media think that he is the most trusted and effective cadre of Khamenei, and also the eyesore of the United States. The United States has been trying to take action against him, but has not found a proper excuse, and finally found this time.

His death dealt a huge blow to Iran, equivalent to cutting off an arm of Khamenei. Although Sulaimani cannot speak with the Iranian president in the same day, he is the real power figure of Iran and the main designer and commander of Irans Middle East policy.

Interface news: trump has previously expressed his unwillingness to start a war with Iran, and various analysts predict that the US and Iran will continue to fight among agents. Why did the United States fight directly against Irans top general this time?

Hua Liming: since May last year, the conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated, multi-national oil tankers have been bombed, U.S. drones have been shot down, and Saudi oil fields have been attacked, but Trumps response has been relatively low-key, and no direct retaliation has been taken. This time, such a decision was made, on the one hand, because of the stimulation of the siege of the US embassy in Iraq, and more because of the US election.

The recent siege of the U.S. Embassy in Iraq reminds Americans of the Tehran hostage incident 41 years ago after the siege of the U.S. Embassy in Iran.

Iran is a deeply demonized country in the United States, and the hostage incident in Tehran is a pain point for the Americans. In that year, Iranian students occupied the American embassy, which never happened in the history of the United States. It was a great shame for the United States. The incident at the Iraqi embassy almost repeated the hostage incident in Tehran.

Protecting the interests of Americans abroad is the top priority of American voters. Trump killed suleymani on the grounds of protecting American security after the siege of the embassy, and his actions against Iran will surely win the support of voters. Just as Trumps raid on Baghdad, the head of the Isis, in October last year, was able to vote for trump.

Interface news: can Iran replace Sulaimani? Will it have an impact on Irans actions overseas?

Hua Liming: since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Sulaimani has led Irans actions in the Middle East. There is no strong man to replace him.

Sulaimani is not only in charge of planning and leadership, but also a key figure in connecting Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. As soon as he died, the line was broken, which would also have an impact on Irans actions in Yemen and other places.

The United States also considered that the elimination of Sulaimani would cause a relatively big blow to Iran, so it targeted the attack.

Interface news: along with Sulaimani, the deputy commander of the Iraqi peoples mobilization army was killed. Iraq is deeply influenced by Iran. What will happen to the situation in the country?

Hua Liming: Trumps action only considered domestic votes, but he ignored one point. I think it was a big mistake he made: he stabbed a hornets nest in Iraq.

Khamenei has said he wants to make a tough response, and there are many ways to respond. Before, after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, although the United States put extreme pressure on Iran, Iran was relatively low-key, and had not played the card of Iraq, but wanted to make matters smaller.

If the Iranian government does not take strong measures to respond to the bombing of suleymani, domestic public opinion will not agree, so it must take revenge. What kind of action should be taken and to what extent, Iran needs to consider carefully. Irans Supreme National Security Council has held an emergency meeting to discuss this strategy.

Now the easiest card Iran can use is Iraq. The previous anti-government march in Iraq was a game between pro Iranian forces and American forces.

The U.S. military in Iraq has more than 5000 people, while Irans power in Iraq is very strong. The U.S. military in Iraq may be the target of Pro Iranian militia and people in the future.

It is likely that the United States and Iran will turn Iraq into a battlefield for fighting each other, or even a second Iraq war. This serious consequence may not have been expected by trump, and such development will have a huge impact on the situation in the Middle East as a whole.

How the United States and Iran will play and fight in Iraq in the future; how big Iran wants to fight back and how the United States will end up are the key points to be observed in the next step.

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