Super brain is not enemy brain? Big data fund overall running index

 Super brain is not enemy brain? Big data fund overall running index

Among the worlds major stock indexes, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index ranked second and third respectively, second only to Russias ETS index. As a result, A-share biased funds earn a lot of money, with an average return of 40%, and the return of five funds doubled.

However, big data funds, which had been in the best shape for a while before, did not perform well. 28 big data funds (a, B and C categories are calculated separately). In 2019, there are only 9 big data funds with an increase rate of more than 40%, and the highest one has an increase rate of 59.6%. Compared with the 121.69% increase of partial fund champion, the return is only half; while the lowest one has an increase rate of 16.2% last year, obviously losing the index.

Big data becomes a gimmick?

Once it was launched, big data funds attracted a lot of money for its genes of Super Brain (computer + human brain) and the support of the bull market. In 2014, A-share is the first big data fund. It was a bull market that year. Big data fund soared to the sky and quickly attracted market attention.

After that, big data themed funds exploded, and Internet giants such as bajt rushed in. But with a wave of market adjustments, the Super Brain is not as originally envisaged - up much, down little..

In 2019, there will be a wave of bull market in the market, and the performance of big data fund is generally backward. The best performance was Zhejiang merchants big data smart selection consumption, with an increase of 59.6% in 2019; Tianhong cloud life optimization increased by 53.2%, ranking second. In addition, the cumulative unit net value growth rate of 10 big data funds in 2019 is less than 30%. The products with the lowest performance come from China Southern Fund, and the growth rates of big data 100C and 100A are only 16.2% and 16.7%.

According to the prospectus of China Southern Fund, the big data 100 index is a strategic index. For the stocks in the sample space, the model is optimized according to the scores of financial factors, market driving factors and big data factors. Then the calculated comprehensive scores are sorted from high to low, and the stocks ranking in the top 100 are selected to form the initial sample stocks of the big data 100 index.

Specifically, financial factors mainly include the latest PE / E ratio, roe, year-on-year growth rate of annual operating revenue, year-on-year growth rate of annual net profit, excluding the stocks ranking lower in PE and roe, excluding the stocks with negative year-on-year growth of operating revenue and negative year-on-year growth of annual net profit; calculating the relative growth of year-on-year and month-on-year growth of main business revenue and net profit The range change of the indicator in the previous period is regarded as the performance acceleration score, and the above score is calculated as the total score of financial factor through the factor model.

Market driving factors mainly include stock turnover rate, volatility, price change rate and liquidity factor in the last month. The total score of market driving factors is calculated by the quantitative factor model.

Big data factors mainly include calculating the heat score of a single stock according to the heat of stock page access under Sina Finance and economics channel, calculating the heat score of a single stock news report according to the positive and negative effects of news reports under finance and economics channel, and calculating the micro blog score of a single stock according to the positive and negative effects of the stock on the micro blog, combining the above scores and optimizing the results according to the historical backtesting Data score. Finally, the adjustment and equal weight calculation are carried out under the rules agreed in the index preparation scheme, and the index component stocks and weights are finally determined.

But the ideal is very full, the reality is very bone feeling. Although considering various indicators, the accumulated net value of two big data funds in South China, 100A and 100C, is less than 0.7 yuan, respectively 0.67 yuan and 0.66 yuan.

In essence, big data fund is a kind of quantitative fund. On the basis of traditional quantitative indicators, it integrates all kinds of public information on the Internet and online and offline payment information.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Research Center, there are four main data sources of big data Fund: the first is general search data, such as Baidu, 360 and other websites users relevant search records on the securities market; the second is financial website data, such as Sina Finance, tonghuashun, Dongfang wealth and other websites users attention index on the industry or individual stocks; the third is consumer Fee data, such as purchase records of users on Taobao, Jingdong and other websites, as well as offline POS data, etc.; fourth, social website data, such as microblog, snowball and other community investors views on the securities market.

From 20 billion to 9.6 billion

The first big data fund of a share was born in March 2014. There are 28 existing big data funds.

From the perspective of scale, at the peak of 2015, it once exceeded 20 billion yuan; now the performance is poor and the redemption is obvious. By the end of 2019, the scale has dropped to 9.6 billion yuan, hitting fracture.

At present, the largest scale is southern big data 100, with a and C shares totaling 2.79 billion yuan. The smallest one is China Merchants financial big data stock, which is less than 18 million yuan and has been significantly lower than the liquidation line. This fund was established in November 2016, with the establishment scale of about 250 million yuan and the latest net value of 0.85 yuan.

From the perspective of establishment time, it is mainly concentrated in 2015-2017; since 2018, only one product of e-fonda e-hundred intelligent quantification strategy has been established.

In terms of accumulated net value, 17 products are currently positive income, and the remaining 11 products are under 1 yuan. At present, the best performing is Galaxy fixed investment baotencent Jian index, with a cumulative net value of 1.63 yuan, which is the earliest big data fund established.

Big data funds have been deified before. Its essence is to model and select stocks through the sales or search data of Baidu, Tencent, Taobao, Jingdong and other websites, combined with the regular financial analysis of the enterprise, such as business income, profit, cash flow, etc. There are obvious loopholes in this way, because if this way works, Ma Yun and other entrepreneurs can make money by themselves through stock speculation, and they dont need to run enterprises at all. So big data fund eventually becomes a gimmick, and poor performance is normal. In the secondary market game, only these so-called big data can get good returns, so many professional investment institutions have no job. Wang Qunhang, a senior fund commentator, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.

Zeng Linghua, director of the research center of Haomai fund, told 21st century economic reporter that the essence of investment is to make money for the growth of enterprises, which generally depends on the fundamentals of enterprises. Todays big data funds are mostly screened through stock price fluctuations driven by market sentiment, search frequency or short-term events. They do not pay enough attention to fundamentals, which is different from the nature of investment. In the future, big data will certainly have more value to be mined, but the current model is not accurate enough, and there is still a long way to go to defeat the human brain.

From the current actual situation, our big data fund tends to be closer to CSI 500, which does not show the original state of up helps up and down less , more like a sharp rise and fall when rising. Due to the large fluctuation, the scale of fund redemption is very large, and the current stock scale is very small. Previously, the company planned to work on big data and recruited a lot of relevant talents, but now the plan has been put on hold. Big data factors are not as effective as you think, and they are less effective than active products. The head of a South China based fund company told 21st century economic reporters.

A base people told reporters Tucao said: how much did the big data fund fire to that year? Its hard to get a basic one. Almost every one needs to be limited. Now its how much. I bought one at the end of 2015, and now the net value is up 15%. The cumulative income is similar to that of the Monetary Fund.

(Editor: Ma Chunyuan)

Source: editor in charge of 21st century economic report: Yao Liwei ufe63 nt6056