On January 1, 2020, the central bank announced on its official website that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) on January 6, 2020. This reduction is a comprehensive one, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds.
The heavy news of new years Day holiday directly made A-share open higher after the festival. Under the performance of hot sectors such as media, electronics, agriculture and household appliances, the Shanghai index once approached the 3100 level in the intraday, up 1.15% in the whole day, and the growth enterprise market index also rose nearly 2%. The stock market ushered in a good start.
Fang Wei, fund manager of Huatai Bairui: the trend of technology stocks in the future is still promising
Fang Wei said that the main reason for the market rise on the first day of the new year is that there are a number of good news on the festival, but the root cause is related to the trend of macroeconomic stabilization and recovery, and the market expects that the economic recovery will continue. From the single day market situation, the main line of investment in the market has not changed, and technology stocks continue to rise. Fang Wei believes that in the future economic recovery, technology stocks are an important driver, and the trend of technology stocks in the future is still promising. He pointed out that the trend of all listed companies generally shows performance expectation orientation, and the companies with better performance are expected to rise more, while some companies with lower performance than expected tend to be weaker. It is worth noting that cycle stocks are also starting, and hot spots have spread. The rise of cyclical stocks did not weaken the rise of technology stocks, which shows that the overall market environment is good, and the market hot spots are one after another.
Min Liangchao, chief macro and strategist of HSBC Jinxin: continue to be optimistic about Spring Market
Min Liangchao, chief macro and strategist of HSBC Jinxin, believes that the market surge on the first day of 2020 is mainly due to the continuation of the strong market in December last year. The main reasons and logic behind this are three factors. One is the stabilization of economic data in November, and the market expects that the domestic economy will recover in 2020. The other is the agreement text reached in the first stage between China and the United States, with the largest market uncertainty, Third, the reduction of the standard released liquidity and strengthened investors confidence in the economic recovery in 2020.
Strategically, they continue to be bullish on the spring market, with undervalued big finance as one of the main lines, he said. After the rise in December last year, they did not worry about overdraft of the market in January, because the staged stabilization of the economy has been continuously verified, the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States reached an agreement, and the risk appetite is expected to be maintained. Moreover, the rise in December last year was limited, and there is still room for agitation in spring.
Boshi Fund: the economy is expected to stabilize in the first quarter
Boshi Fund said that the first is to hedge the liquidity gap. During the Spring Festival, there is a large demand for liquidity in the market. The reduction of the reserve will help to fill the liquidity gap. In January, due to the demand for cash in advance of the Spring Festival, early issuance of special bonds, tax payment and other factors, there is still a liquidity gap, so we can still focus on the introduction of liquidity hedging policies in the future. Secondly, Q1 economy is expected to stabilize with the advance of fiscal efforts. In 2020, local bonds have been advanced to January, and the specific issuing time is earlier than last year. The release of long-term funds by reducing the standard will play a role in stabilizing infrastructure with the newly issued local debts, and the economy is expected to stabilize. Third, it is good for the market. Although there is early expectation for the overall reduction of the standard market, there is the possibility of continuous follow-up for the subsequent policy marginal relaxation, which may be good for the performance of risk assets.
China Southern Fund: reduce the standard and improve the financial and cycle sectors
South Fund said that overall, the reduction is in line with market expectations. On the one hand, the Prime Minister stated during his recent research in Sichuan that he would further study and take various measures such as reducing the standard, reducing the standard in a targeted way, and refinancing; on the other hand, monetary policy needs to release liquidity in advance to hedge the liquidity pressure before the beginning of the year and the impact of the stock loan anchor swap. With the amount of money that the central bank has put into the open market in December last year, the liquidity across the year and before the festival is relatively sufficient, which is expected to further boost market sentiment and stimulate the turbulent market in spring.
In terms of equity, from a structural point of view, the reduction of the standard will benefit the large financial sector first. In addition to the securities companies, the banking sector that has suffered a short-term setback due to the stock loan anchor swap is also expected to be repaired. Secondly, the regular fourth quarter monetary policy meeting just held deleted the statement of the general gate of money supply, and also released the signal of marginal easing of short-term stable growth policy, so industrial raw materials, building materials, real estate and other pro cyclical sectors are also expected to benefit.
In terms of fixed income, the bond market has fully expected the reduction in January, with limited impact. At present, the core logic of bond markets rise lies in loose funds and strong allocation power. In the short term, these two factors remain unchanged, and bond market will remain strong. However, at present, the demand for funds and allocation has been high, and it is expected that the margin will change in the later period, so it is necessary to guard against the adjustment of bond market.
Guangfa: short term focus on cyclical sectors with undervalued values such as finance, building materials and real estate
At the current stage, economic stability and improvement, warm policy tone and gradual easing of monetary policy, combined with the first phase agreement between China and the United States and the start of the second phase of consultation, are indeed good for the market at the beginning of the year. However, in the short term, it is not easy to be overly optimistic, and it is too early to have a hot spring market. First, the potential impact of the peak of lifting the ban on stocks is still faced in late January. Second, the market growth in 2019 is large, and there is no obvious adjustment, so valuation spillover needs to be further digested. Third, at present, the market has a large expectation on the accumulation of economic and monetary policies, and the follow-up performance may be more cautious, so as to prevent the late spring cold in the future market.
Under the background of global monetary easing and economic stabilization, with the improvement and stabilization of domestic economic data, the gradual easing of monetary policy, the continuous inflow of capital in the north and the rise of the balance of the two financing, the A-share market will usher in new strategic opportunities. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the cyclical undervalued sectors such as finance, building materials and real estate, and pay attention to the deterministic comparative advantage of the profit margin improvement of the science and technology sector represented by 5g. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to focus on technology, electronics and other sectors and industries.
China Merchants Fund: the index still has some upward momentum
China Merchants Fund believes that todays market surge was mainly affected by the announcement of the central banks comprehensive reduction of 0.5 percentage points yesterday. Recently, there are some signs of stabilization in domestic economic indicators. This reduction will help to fill the seasonal liquidity gap before the festival and the need for appropriate financial support for local bond issuance since January, which will help consolidate the economic recovery momentum and further improve the short-term market risk appetite.
In the short term, we believe that the index still has some upward momentum. On the one hand, the central economic working conference still emphasizes that next years macro policies are mainly stable, which is expected to continue to stabilize market expectations; on the other hand, the global macro-economy may be entering the repair window, the first phase agreement between China and the United States is about to be reached, and the relationship between the two countries is expected to enter a long time In recent years, with the gradual decline of RMB devaluation expectation and the emergence of A-share valuation advantage, the capital inflow of Beishang still maintained a rapid speed. In the medium term, the reform dividend of the capital market and the policy guidance of the government to promote the proportion of direct financing may still be the main driving force for the central upward trend of A-share volatility, including the relaxation of the refinancing policy, which will reactivate the M & A and restructuring market in the long term, which is conducive to the growth and strength of listed companies. In terms of sectors, as economic pessimism is expected to usher in the repair window period, the periodic sector of undervalued value needs to be focused, in which non-silver and periodic sectors benefiting from economic stabilization and upward market risk preference are recommended, while science and technology sectors benefiting from policy support and information catalysis, new energy sectors and post real estate cycle industrial chain with upward prosperity are also worth selecting Participation.
Jingshun Great Wall: in the short term, it will help to improve the risk preference of A-share market
Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that in December last year, the stock and bond market had sufficient expectations for the reduction in January this year. This operation meets the expectations, releasing more than 800 billion long-term funds by 0.5% of the reduction, which helps to supplement the liquidity gap in January. More importantly, it helps to promote the reduction of LPR quotation and achieve the goal of cost reduction. In the short term, considering the liquidity gap of more than 2 trillion yuan in January, the central bank still needs to use other tools to put money. In the whole year of 2020, it is expected that there will still be room to reduce the MLF interest rate, and broad currency is still expected to be the normal state in the economic bottom stage. In addition, this reduction reflects the idea of the central banks counter cyclical regulation, which is helpful to maintain the reasonable and sufficient market liquidity before the Spring Festival, effectively increase the stable capital source of financial institutions to support the real economy, reduce the capital cost of financial institutions to support the real economy, and directly support the real economy. For the equity market, this reduction is the confirmation of the optimistic expectation of the early market. On the one hand, the loose macro liquidity environment is conducive to the market trend, on the other hand, the counter cyclical adjustment has also eased the uncertainty of investors on the future steady growth. At the same time, the trade friction between China and the United States is slow, local special bonds are issued in advance, spring market and other factors are superimposed, which will help A-share in the short term The improvement of market risk preference.
Ten thousand funds: the stock market in spring is restless ahead of time, which is good for the performance of the stock bond market
Wanjia Fund believes that there are three purposes for the central bank to reduce the reserve: first, to properly compensate the banks interests under the condition of LPR stock reform. This reduction is conducive to easing the market pressure caused by the promotion of LPR pricing of stock loans. Second, steady growth and coordination with the issuance of special bonds. The issuance of special bonds is imminent, and there is a gap in liquidity. At this time, the reduction of reserve is conducive to reflecting the demand of six stability and the opening of the year. The third is to maintain the liquidity stability and other intentions before the Spring Festival. There is also a gap before the Spring Festival, which is also the reason why the market generally expected to reduce the standard in January.
The central bank made it clear at the regular four quarter monetary policy meeting released on the 1st that it would reduce the cost of social financing, adhere to the market-oriented reform method to promote a significant reduction in the level of real interest rates, which means that the direction of broad currency and cost reduction in the coming quarter is very clear. On the whole, this reduction and the latest statement of the central bank have all sent a signal of further easing, which is conducive to the performance of the stock market and bond market, maintaining the view that the stock market is restless in spring and the bond market is more volatile.
At present, the macro environment is conducive to the stock market as a whole. First, the PMI in December last year was 50.2, which continues to exceed market expectations, and signs of economic stability are emerging. Second, since September, the central bank has continuously released the signal of reducing standards and interest rates. Third, China US trade agreement has been reached, which may be signed this month. We maintain the view that the stock market is restless and ahead of time in spring. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile. On the one hand, the central banks loose guidance is clear, and the allocation force at the beginning of the year is strong. On the other hand, the economic expectation to repair the rise of risk assets also constitutes a certain constraint. Therefore, it is expected that interest rate volatility will be strong.
Pengyang Fund: reducing reserve and smoothing capital gap and debt cost
Pengyang fund also believes that the impact of the central banks announcement of a comprehensive reduction of 0.5% on January 6, 2020 is as follows. First, this comprehensive reduction has smoothed the funding gap. January is the big month of tax payment. It is estimated that the scale of tax payment is 1.61 trillion yuan, and the net withdrawal of the whole fiscal month is 0.45 trillion yuan. In addition, the maturity of the open market this month is 857.5 billion yuan, and the issuance of local bonds (including special ones) exceeds 500 billion yuan. In addition, the demand for cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival is about 1 trillion yuan, and the total funding gap for the whole month is about 2-3 trillion yuan.
Third, a broad fiscal policy and stable growth need a broad monetary cooperation. Fourth, in terms of market expectations, the market has fully expected this time.
Jiutai Fund: the upward trend of the stock market does not change to focus on periodic opportunities
From the macro and meso data of Chinas economy, the acceleration of the completion of real estate and the increase of capital construction are driving the price rebound. In the short term, the short-term recovery of industrial production may be mainly related to the accelerated completion of real estate and the development of infrastructure. Since 2019, due to factors such as better sales than expected, inventory replenishment, accelerated completion of sales and withdrawal of funds, real estate investment has remained high volatility. Since the fourth quarter, the stimulus policy for infrastructure construction has been working frequently, which has promoted the recovery of infrastructure investment in the short term.
Secondly, if the economy is only stable, the final technology and consumption is still a better choice. For the stock investment, it is more about the valuation of some sub industries and stocks. On the one hand, the valuation can be digested by the growth, on the other hand, it can continue to look for better cost-effective varieties and new sub industry opportunities in the medium-term main line of technology and consumption.
In the future, with the marginal easing of economic and trade relations between China and the United States, the gradual implementation of hedging policies and the continuous recovery of medium and long-term credit of enterprises, and with the further easing of the monetary policy of local special debt issuance, the economy is expected to stabilize in stages. However, in the context of the current tight real estate financing, real estate land acquisition and start-up investment still need to pay attention to its downward pressure in the future.
Founder Securities: focus on undervalued, early cycle varieties, firmly optimistic about growth style
Founder Securities believes that this reduction is a comprehensive one, reflecting counter cyclical adjustment and releasing about 800 billion yuan of long-term funds. The all-round reduction of the standard will help further stabilize economic expectations and help the well-off society in an all-round way and the end of the 13th five year plan. After this reduction, it will be different from the overall reduction in September. The core is that the expectation of economic operation has changed, and warm winter market will continue. Similar to the reduction in March 2016, the economy will usher in a phased stabilization, and the stock market will usher in a long window period.
After reducing the standard, it can actively allocate the industries of finance, real estate, automobile, building materials and so on that are undervalued and related to the early economic cycle. In 2020, the abundant monetary environment is conducive to reducing the financing cost of the real economy, especially the trial and error cost of science and technology enterprises. The risk appetite has the opportunity of continuous improvement. The company is firmly optimistic about growth throughout the year, focusing on the electronics, media, computers, new energy vehicles, medical devices and other industries.
Xingshi Investment: the reduction of the standard will benefit the growth stocks
Xingshi investment believes that the market has been fully expected in the early stage of this reduction, and its core lies in reducing the financing cost of the real economy and filling the short-term funding gap at the beginning of the year.
In terms of capital market investment, the recent market environment is relatively friendly to equity assets. This comprehensive reduction in equity assets should be icing on the cake, and the long-term trend of equity assets will not change. This comprehensive reduction in the reserve ratio has driven down the risk-free interest rate, which helps to boost the valuation level of equity assets. In addition, relatively speaking, growth stocks benefit more from the downward interest rate environment; we still maintain the long-term bull market judgment of growth stocks.
Source: responsible editor of China Fund News: Liu songju nbj9949