How about a shares on the first trading day of the new year? Big data tell you

category:Finance
 How about a shares on the first trading day of the new year? Big data tell you


(picture from hailo)

Does the overall reduction of the standard mean that big water will come?

You are being paranoid. The central bank stressed that we should not carry out flood irrigation and keep the overall price level stable.

1. Since November 30, 2011, the central bank has reduced the standard 14 times in an all-round way, and the probability of A-share rising is 50%.

2. In the past 20 years, on the first day after new years day, the probability of A-share rise is about 60%.

Release long-term funds of more than 800 billion

The head of the central bank said that the reduction was a comprehensive one, reflecting counter cyclical adjustment and releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds,

(screenshot from the official website of the central bank)

Notice, its not flooding.

The central bank said on January 1 that the reduction of the reserve ratio is a hedge against the cash investment before the Spring Festival, and the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable, flexible and moderate, rather than flooding, which reflects the scientific and steady control of the counter cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, and the orientation of stable monetary policy has not changed.

Although reducing the standard is not reducing the interest rate, but the capital is abundant, which can also lower the market interest rate. But why not cut interest rates directly?

On the one hand, inflation CPI is under increasing pressure; on the other hand, it is under pressure of stable growth. This means that in order to prevent the spread of inflation expectations, it is essential to maintain the pertinence and stability of monetary policy.

Another question, why did it drop in January?

The central bank announced the reduction of the reserve ratio on New Years Day 2020, which is related to the large demand for capital in January and the pressure on bank liquidity. The industry believes that, on the one hand, the reduction can hedge the liquidity gap before the Spring Festival; on the other hand, the reduction can create a stable financing environment for local governments.

The Spring Festival in 2020 is earlier than that in previous years, and it arrives on January 25 ahead of schedule. January is usually the month of paying taxes. More importantly, in order to stabilize growth and other needs, new special bonds will be issued in January.

14 years big data: 50% probability of A-share increase after overall reduction

The new years gift from the central bank is the first trading day of the new year. Will a shares rise?

What kind of stocks will benefit the most after the reduction?

u25b2 Chen Guo, chief strategic analyst of Anxin strategy:

Although the short-term reduction is in line with our expectations, its landing is still conducive to the market index continuing to rise. It is expected that short-term securities companies will continue to be strong, and cyclical stocks will also have a impulsive market performance.

u25b2 comments on Shenwan Hongyuans strategy:

At the same time, it will benefit the growth of science and technology and the smooth cycle, or make the interpretation of spring market more smooth.

The short-term Pro cyclical relative cost performance is better than the growth. In the future, the classic rotation of cycle set up, growth performance may reappear, pushing the spring market to a higher level.

In the specific direction, the growth of science and technology needs to select individual stocks, focusing on video games, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles. Along the cycle, we focus on the optimized mechanical equipment and building materials, as well as the undervalued banks, real estate and architectural decoration.

u25b2 Zhang Yulong, chief strategy of CSCI:

There are four aspects of significance in this reduction:

First, to hedge the impact of bank stock loans, reduce the cost of banks, and ensure the stability of the banking industry and financial system;

Second, we should supplement the liquidity of the Spring Festival to ensure sufficient and stable liquidity;

Fourth, this is very helpful to the market. A shares will continue to rise substantially. Real estate, building materials, construction and securities companies, banks and other cycle + finance are the most dominant varieties.

Big data in the past 20 years: 60% increase in probability on the first trading day of the new year

According to winds analysis of the market performance of Shanghai and Shenzhens main indexes after new years day since 2000, on the first day after new years day, Shanghais index has risen 12 times, while Shenzhens index has risen 11 times, with a rising probability of about 60%.

The biggest increase occurred on the first day after new years day in 2015, when the Shanghai stock index rose 3.58%.

Among the eight declines of Shanghai stock index, the biggest one occurred in 2016. On January 4, 2016, a share experienced the first circuit breaker in history. On that day, Shanghai stock index fell 6.86%.

Wind statistics show that in the past 20 years, the probability of the first day after new years day of the Wande all a index rising is 65%.

Since 2006, the small and medium-sized board index has risen nine times on the first day after new years day, with a growth probability of 64.29%.

The first day after the new years day, the growth enterprise market performance is slightly weak. Since 2011, it has only risen four times, with a rising probability of only 44.44%.

What sectors have attracted more market attention in January in the past decade

In terms of industry sector, who has attracted more market attention in January in the past decade?

According to wind data statistics, in January 2010, information technology, health care and energy industries ranked first in terms of cumulative growth, with two times of industry index growth ranking first.

Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Qian, nf4425