The peoples Bank of China announced on January 1 that in order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) on January 6, 2020.
The peoples Bank of China will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, avoid flooding, take into account internal and external balance, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, adapt the scale growth of monetary credit and social financing to economic development, stimulate the vitality of market players, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply side structural reform.
At the same time, the relevant person in charge of the peoples Bank of China said that the reduction was a comprehensive one, reflecting the counter cyclical adjustment, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds, effectively increasing the stable sources of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, and directly supporting the real economy.
This decision of the peoples Bank of China will inevitably have a greater impact on the stock market. For shareholders, how to go after the reduction of the standard A shares is also the most concerned issue. Lets take a look at the views of the institutions.
Shenwan Hongyuan strategy
The most important significance of the reduction is to eliminate two short-term downside risks: (1) at the beginning of 2020, the risk of insufficient renewal of centralized maturity of reverse repo will be directly excluded, and the macro liquidity environment will continue to benefit the stock market. (2) Some investors are worried that if the economic data validation falls back in December 2019 and January 2020, the market will be temporarily driven back. However, this reduction dispels the markets doubts about the strength of stable growth. The importance of data validation before the Spring Festival has declined. It is optimistic that the space for fermentation ahead of time will be opened, and the upward resistance along the cycle will decline.
At the same time, the original pattern is that the problem of cost performance ratio of science and technology growth begins to appear, and the diffusion of profit-making effect is blocked; however, the opportunity to follow the cycle has not yet arrived, and it needs to wait for the verification of key data from February to March, so it is not easy to improve the net worth in a short term. We summarize this pattern as two-stage theory of spring market. At the same time, it will benefit the growth of science and technology and the smooth cycle, or make the interpretation of spring market more smooth. The short-term Pro cyclical relative cost performance is better than the growth. In the future, the classic rotation of cycle set up, growth performance may reappear, pushing the spring market to a higher level. In the specific direction, the growth of science and technology needs to select individual stocks, focusing on video games, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles. Along the cycle, we focus on the optimized mechanical equipment and building materials, as well as the undervalued banks, real estate and architectural decoration.
Zhang Yulong, chief strategic analyst of CSCI
Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of Anxin strategy
I think its a good start to the new year, but it may not be the same as the end of 2014. I think its reasonable to see that if the social integration is good in January, there will be no obvious actions such as reducing the accuracy. The economy has shown signs of stabilizing in the fourth quarter of last year, which is better than that in the second half of 2014, and we can see from the above. Now it is more to implement the established deployment to ensure a smooth economic and financial start in the first quarter of the well-off year. In 2019, the standard was reduced by 1.5 percentage points twice, and by October last year, the financing cost of small and micro enterprises had dropped by 0.64 percentage points. In the comprehensive economy, after this reduction, it is expected that the currency will stop for a while, and stay at the later point to choose the opportunity to reduce the reserve again. Although the short-term reduction is in line with our expectations, its landing is still conducive to the market index continuing to rise. It is expected that short-term securities companies will continue to be strong, and cyclical stocks will also have a impulsive market performance.
Although there are a series of uncertain factors in 2019, with the launch of the science and technology innovation board, the opening of the core asset market, the finalization of the central economic working conference, the agreement reached in the first phase of trade agreement between China and the United States, institutional investors represented by equity funds have won a great victory All of these are doomed to 2019 is a year when investors see the dawn coming out of the horizon in the changeable situation, and 2020 is also a year full of vitality!
Looking forward to the investment road in 2020, what are you looking forward to? The first day of opening, a shares will usher in a red start? Lets take a look at big data statistics to see what the trend of open market will be.
On the first day after new years day, the Shanghai index has a 62% chance of opening up,
The probability of closing and rising in the first month is 55%.
The opening bell of A-share market on the first day of 2020 also heralds a new milestone of A-share market - the opening of the first year of full registration system. The new securities law will be implemented on March 1 after the fourth revision. What profound changes will it bring to the A-share market? How will the new news of the central banks reducing the standard help the A-share market? In the market of great change, how should investment thinking change in 2020 and what opportunities should be seized to achieve wealth growth? We specially comb out five dry products of A-share market investment in 2020 for you to help you look forward to the market operation rhythm, understand the market hot spot trend and target selection, and avoid the market black swan event and potential risks.
In addition to this full of dry goods, we also send eggs at the end of the article, please taste!
On the morning of December 28, 2019, the 15th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National Peoples Congress deliberated and passed the newly revised Securities Law. The revised Securities Law will come into force on March 1, 2020. From the perspective of historical market, the revision and implementation of previous securities laws will have a greater impact on the market of A-share.
In the 20 years since the implementation of the securities law, there have been three amendments and one amendment.
Looking back on the market performance after three amendments to the securities law in 2004, 2013 and 2014, the quarterly growth of the non-bank financial industry was 13.42%, 13.67% and 44.51% respectively. In addition, according to the market performance after the revision of the Securities Act of October 27, 2005, banks (up 23.62%) and non bank finance (up 22.73%) ranked the top three in terms of quarterly growth in all industries.
The newly revised Securities Law clearly and comprehensively implements the registration system, indicating that A-share will enter the era of registration system, does this mean that the expansion of the stock market is accelerated? Can the registration system bring a bull market? What changes will this bring to investors stock selection logic? Does it lead to more favored blue chip stocks, while shell stocks and junk stocks are ignored? How do investors adapt to the registration system? Lets look directly at the dry goods!
The full implementation of the registration system will promote the transformation of securities companies into comprehensive financial services, which puts forward higher requirements for the pricing and research capabilities of securities companies, with relatively prominent leading advantages. We believe that the securities industry is in a very obvious era of change, and the leading advantages of the top securities companies will be more obvious, and the policy dividend will be released continuously, which will obviously catalyze the valuation of securities companies. We suggest that we pay attention to: the most beneficial industry concentration to enhance the leading securities companies CITIC Securities; Huatai Securities, the leading industry in science and technology finance; CICC, the fast transformation of wealth management.
Tang Xin, Professor, School of law, Tsinghua University:
The implementation of the registration system in the capital market must take information disclosure as the core, and also must be accompanied by a strict accountability mechanism. This revision of the securities law clearly introduces a class action system with Chinese characteristics, which conforms to the call of the market, and is expected to further improve the comprehensive punishment of vicious illegal acts. In order to avoid the possibility of abusing litigation, China has introduced the investor protection institution set up by the state as the chief plaintiff, which is not explicitly stipulated in the securities law, but it should be. Through such a mechanism, we can reduce the possible monopoly of the plaintiff and the lawyer in the group action in the United States, and avoid the situation of endless ending and the result of abuse of action. Taking the financial fraud of listed companies as an example, it said that in the future, a pattern of 5 + 1 system, such as separate litigation, joint litigation, representative litigation, collective litigation, model judgment and docking mediation, could be formed for a long time.
Zhang Zongxin, professor and doctoral supervisor of Financial Research Institute of Fudan University:
It can be said that the most important reform in the capital market in the past 10 years is to carry out the registration system in an all-round way, and the most important reform in the last 10 years is the reform of non tradable shares. From the start of the science and technology innovation board, the reform of the registration system has begun, and the full implementation of the registration system is not simply to increase market supply, more importantly, it will have a systematic impact on the capital market. In the future, the governance environment, legal environment, resource allocation efficiency, investor behavior, pricing mechanism and other aspects of the whole capital market will change. In the era of approval system, under the background of limited stock supply, market pricing is more determined by the supply-demand relationship of stock, while in the era of registration system, market pricing is more determined by the value of stock itself. In the long run, the registration system will optimize the efficiency of resource allocation and realize the optimization of market functions. For example, from the perspective of overseas mature markets, the market will favor those truly valuable enterprises.
Wang Lin, general manager of Tibet Linlang Investment:
The expansion of the market is likely to be accelerated and the stock supply will increase. In the long run, the price of the stock is more determined by the quality and value of the company, not by the implementation of the audit system or the registration system. The development of Chinas capital market is ultimately determined by the fundamentals of Chinas economy and the quality of listed companies.
Dry goods 3: Top 10 securities companies predict the operation of Shanghai stock index in 2020
The A-share market represented by the Shanghai stock index opened the first day of trading in 2020 today. After the Shanghai Stock Index repeatedly bottomed out around 3000 points in 2019, the expectation of new years market and wealth will start a new process. In the new year, what kind of running rhythm and track will the market be? In particular, we have combed the prospects of the top ten securities companies for the new years market, so that you can know ahead of time.
In the next six months, the market index is still sideways, no bull, no bear, you can be assured to select individual stocks boldly. The index has two operating ranges, 2700 to 3000 and 3000 to 3300. Before New Years day, it basically runs between 2700 and 3000, and after new years day, it basically runs between 3000 and 3300.
In 2020, A-share will enter the second stage of the 3-5-year bull market opened in 2019. In the macro-economic decisive environment, capital market reform and corporate profit recovery, A-share is expected to usher in the well-off cattle for 2-3 years. In terms of rhythm, a shares performed well in the second and fourth quarters of 2020. In the fourth quarter, fundamentals are expected to open up space, industry and finance will be launched in an all-round way, and index growth will be greater than that in the second quarter.
It is expected that the market will go through the stage of digesting high prices and ushering in policy power from weak to strong in 2020, so it is important to grasp the rhythm and structure. The trend of Chinas consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading remains unchanged. It is likely to continue to deepen in 2020. With the deepening of 5g application and science and technology cycle, the new economy may still be the focus of structural opportunities.
With the release of reform dividend in 2020, the logic of A-share capital supply improvement seems to be smoother, but it is difficult to significantly improve the profit growth rate, which may inhibit the rise of valuation. Spring is the first window for the improvement of numerator and denominator in 2020. We are optimistic about the spring Market in 2020.
At present, the known macro variables at home and abroad and the current valuation level of a shares determine that the direction of a shares in 2020 is still upward, and the main index center of a shares in 2020 will be higher than that in 2019. From the end of 2020 to 2021, the negative impact of anti globalization on the 30-year-old bull base of US equities may gradually appear, while the overall domestic corporate profit rate and discount rate may benefit from anti globalization in the medium and long term.
A-share has a big cycle every seven years. In early 2019, the improvement of liquidity has driven bear bull to turn to a new upward cycle. In 2020, residential funds are expected to accelerate the market entry and boost the market upward. It is estimated that the A-share market will continue to maintain a good profit-making effect in 2020. In 2020, it is necessary to increase the allocation of equity assets to obtain excess returns. Science and technology enter the upward cycle, and the capital market opens a new round of reform, providing the basis for the improvement of risk appetite.
On the whole, in 2020, the market will be dominated by the central governments gradual shock and upgrading of the market, and seize structural opportunities. Looking forward to the general trend of liquidity easing in 2020, the prospect of the 14th five year plan and the acceleration of opening-up will bring the opportunity of valuation improvement for the stock market and related industries. Under the guidance of the Quartet of national attention, resident allocation, institutional allocation and global allocation, the era of real rights and interests in China is expected to officially open, and a share is experiencing its first long bull opportunity.
The spring market of A-share in 2020 is still available, but the starting time may be around the Spring Festival in 2020. In the first half of the year, the restriction of pig inflation on monetary policy and the convergence of investors trading structure made the trend of A-share in the first half of the year in a volatile and repeated trend. In the first half of the year, it was relatively optimistic about the market situation of A-share in February, March and April after the Spring Festival. On the whole, in 2020, A-share opportunities are far greater than risks. From the perspective of the whole year 2020, we predict that the trend of a share will change from repeatedly bottoming to structural bull market. It is estimated that the Shanghai stock index will run between 2800 and 3500 points in 2020.
Dry goods 4: six private equity dramas opportunities in 2020
The big consumption and technology sectors are the most outstanding in 2019. Although the hot spots in the stock market are always you sing and I come on stage, with the overall drive of the reform of the capital market and the development of science and technology, will the market hype in 2020 continue the hot varieties in 2019 or will it find new hot targets? In this regard, we invited six private placements to predict the hot spot distribution of the new years market, providing a reference for your investment layout.
Opportunities for private placement of finishing touch New Years A-share target
Gao Yi assets
Valuation change and profit growth are the two main factors affecting the market. The overall valuation of the market has significantly increased in 2019, and the profit fluctuation in 2020 will be one of the main factors affecting the market fluctuation. With the slowdown of economic growth, most industries are gradually entering the mature period, and the company differentiation in the industry will become a long-term trend. Competitive companies will gradually gain more market share, and will be able to improve the pricing ability. In the traditional manufacturing industry, there will continue to be investment opportunities for the improvement of market share and pricing ability brought by the improvement of industry pattern. With the continuous improvement of per capita income, consumption upgrading in the field of consumption will still be a structural trend for a long time in the future. Companies with rapid product development capabilities, high-quality supply chain system capabilities, and the ability to provide high-quality services to consumers with the help of scientific and technological forces will continue to enjoy the dividends of consumption upgrading. In the financial field, the difference of the companys operating capacity will be more and more significant, and there are still structural opportunities for underestimation.
(a number of star investment managers are gathered under Gaoyi asset group, with an overall yield of over 30% in 2019.)
Shanghai Chongyang investment Wang Qing
Looking forward to 2020, we choose to adopt the investment strategy of keeping watch and helping each other: keeping watch is to guard the high-quality companies that are related to the national economy and the peoples livelihood but are seriously underestimated by the market; looking is to look forward to those real science and technology, real innovation, especially the high-quality companies with the strength of hard science and technology. Technology breakthrough is the key for China to win international competition. With Chinas current level of development and comprehensive national strength, we expect a group of outstanding hard technology companies to stand out; help refers to both sound defense and selective progress. We believe that if the relationship between one internal and one external two variables evolves well in 2020, Chinas stock market will not exclude the possibility of exceeding expectations. Especially in Hong Kong stock market, the current valuation is at a historical low and more international. The capital naturally has the characteristics of pursuing profits. The capital in the negative interest rate area is likely to seek another haven. Undoubtedly, the Hong Kong stock market is a good potential choice. Combined with the historical law, we judge that Hong Kong stock market may reach the bottom before A-share market, and deduce the market before A-share market.
(Chongyang investment is one of the first 10 billion private placements, longer than equity valuation and hedging strategies, with an overall yield of more than 20% in 2019.)
Jiang Hui, chairman of Xingshi investment
In 2020, growth stocks will significantly exceed value stocks, which will usher in a long-term bull market. From a macro perspective, the world will enter a new period of easing in 2019, and Chinas fiscal policy is expected to remain positive. At the same time, the counter cyclical adjustment continues, the loose currency + wide Finance + real estate policy is implemented by the city, and the Sino-U.S. trade relationship is gradually eased. Against this background, the upgrading of science and technology industry is accelerated, and the consumption industry is continuously concentrated. In the next 5-10 years, the biggest trend is high-tech breakthrough.
For the investment opportunities in 2020, first, 5g industry chain investment will shift from the upstream base station hardware to traffic facilities and later applications, focusing on 5g applications. In the early stage, VR / AR, video, live broadcast and cloud games will take the lead, and in the later stage, more advanced applications such as the Internet of things, the Internet of vehicles and the industrial Internet, such as automatic driving, will take the lead.
The next is the new energy automobile industry chain. The trend at home and abroad reflects that the long-term growth space of the new energy automobile industry is broad. Domestic policies continue to escort, overseas electrification speed up, demand into a large period, mainly optimistic about core components with higher certainty.
Third, we are optimistic about the pharmaceutical and biological industry, focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, high-end generic drugs and medical services. As the aging problem of Chinas population intensifies, the pharmaceutical industry may usher in a golden age of 10 years.
(Xingshi investment is one of the earliest sunshine private equity companies in China, with an overall yield of over 30% in 2019.)
Ma Zhuyun, vice president of Baoyin investment
In 2020, a share is still a year of differentiation. There are two sectors with investment value: one is big consumption, the other is big technology. Chinas advantage is that the policy has continuity, which is the core to develop consumption and science and technology. Special attention should be paid to the leading companies with real performance support in the consumption and technology industries. Since 2019, consumption and technology have become the focus of the stock market throughout the year, and many companies stock prices have risen sharply. But in the eyes of Baoyin, some leading stocks are still very cheap. For leading stocks, if the net profit growth is very fast, then they can enjoy the overvalued value. The stock prices of big consumers and big technology have indeed risen a lot, but the companys profits may have risen even more, so the valuation has declined instead.
(Baoyin investment is an excellent asset management organization providing a series of selective (including equity and commodity) investment products for high-end customers, with an annual return rate of more than 20%.)
Ying Feng capital
In 2020, the driving force of valuation expansion will be weakened, which needs to be driven by the profit growth of industries and companies. The investment focus should be on industries and companies with more definite profit growth. In 2020, we will focus on the investment opportunities in the following four directions: first, the opportunity of partial cycle with cost-effective advantage, looking for industries with low value and high dividend, good industrial pattern and boom upward cycle, such as building materials, heavy trucks, home appliances, automobiles, etc.; second, the financial and real estate sectors that benefit from loose monetary policy, good performance and low valuation, such as banks, insurance Leading real estate companies; the third is the Internet service industry that benefits from the continuous improvement of penetration rate and low valuation; the fourth is the opportunity for the consumer and pharmaceutical industry to consider intervention after the valuation is digested to a reasonable level.
(with strong industrial and management background, Yingfeng capital has achieved outstanding performance in 2019, with an overall yield of over 40%.)
Fan Bo, vice president of bedrock capital
After the Shanghai index has crossed 3000 points, it is also difficult to cross 3288 points in a one-off strong way. Generally, it is still in this position. For the investment opportunities in 2020, we are still optimistic about the new energy vehicle sector, 5g application, new consumption and low blue chip. The logic is that new energy vehicles will usher in the turning point next year; 5g will enter the construction peak period, and the relevant industrial chain will successively fulfill its performance, and the back-end application will be gradually reflected; the investment logic of new consumption is to continue to benefit from economic transformation, and the low-level blue chip has the opportunity of valuation and repair.
(the core members of bedrock capital are all from the top investment banks at home and abroad, who have been deeply involved in the capital market at home and abroad for more than 20 years, with an annual return rate of more than 30%.)
Dry five: must read! Major considerations for transactions in 2020
A-share market starts to set sail in 2020, and now there is a more important event that we need to pay attention to, that is, the lifting of the ban on restricted shares in January 2020. From the perspective of the market value of lifting the ban, this will be a new high for a shares in the past six years. The most recent monthly lifting of the ban was in July 2013, with a market value of more than 740 billion yuan.
When we hear the release of the ban, we always think of selling and smashing and other bad words, and then we think that the index will fall or weaken.
However, through the data statistics, it is found that there is little correlation between the lifting of the daily ban and the rise and fall of the index.
In other months when the market value of the lifting of the ban is larger than that in January 2020, the Shanghai stock index is more three wins and two negatives, and the growth probability of the lifting month is 60%.
This also shows that investors expectations do not determine the objective trend of the index. In essence, the index is a collection of package stocks, and there are various factors that affect the trend of the index. Therefore, a single factor to lift the ban on restricted stocks will not determine the trend of the index.
Although the huge amount of lifting the ban has no decisive influence on the trend of the index, when it comes to the specific listed companies whose restricted shares are lifted, the situation is different. Because investors are focused on the specific lifting of the ban on the company, the stock price is bound to be greatly affected.
Of course, the lifting of the ban on restricted shares is not all bad for the company. Some companies, due to the undervaluation of their own share prices, triggered market competition on the date of lifting the ban on restricted shares, such as Haitian flavor industry. On February 13, 2017, the company lifted the ban on about RMB 25.68 billion of restricted stock market value. On the day of lifting the ban, the stock price not only didnt fall sharply, but increased by 3.47%. Since then, the stock price has gone out of a long bull market for nearly three years, with an increase of nearly 274%.
It can be seen that the huge amount of restricted shares has a great impact on the companys stock price, but the final rise or fall depends on the companys valuation position. If the company is in a non undervalued state, the huge amount of lifting the ban will have a negative impact on the company, which is easy to trigger selling; if the company is in an undervalued state, the huge amount of lifting the ban will have a positive impact on the company, which is easy to trigger fund-raising.
Top 10 companies with market value lifted in January 2020