In addition, from December 10 to December 12, 2019, the central economic work conference newly defined six major tasks in 2020, which clearly pointed out that the construction of municipal pipe network and urban parking lot would be strengthened. In addition, according to the relevant regulations of the state, from January 1, 2020, all passenger vehicles in production will start to implement the requirements of mandatory installation of TPMS (tire pressure monitoring system).
Under the joint efforts of policy and 5g support, the current depressed sales volume of new energy vehicles and their industrial chain are expected to bottom out and recover, while the intelligent parking, etc, automatic driving, tire pressure monitoring and other fields that are still in the rapid development and popularization period are expected to break out in 2020, and the whole market will eventually drive the rapid development of automobile electronics industry.
In terms of the new energy vehicle industry chain, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the subdivision field of the new energy vehicle battery industry chain whose profitability and performance are basically at the bottom, whose valuation is in the repair period, as well as the enterprises with full orders in the back end of the industry chain, such as electric motor control and other fields, and then the head enterprises in etc, automatic driving, tire pressure monitoring and automobile electronics.
25g industrial chain:
It is expected to usher in the period of performance explosion
From license issuance to commercial 5g package launch, Chinas 5g promotion speed is accelerating.
However, after September 2019, the bidding for 5g base station construction in China has been accelerated, and the government and operators have successively released 5g plans. The industry generally expects that China will usher in 5g construction tide in 2020, and the investment of the three operators in 5g construction will continue to increase, so the demand for equipment will increase, and the equipment industry chain will continue to benefit.
From the perspective of the whole 5g wireless industry chain companys performance, many industry chain companies have already shifted their business focus to 5g in the last two years, so the companys investment in 5g is also large during this period. However, many 5g industry chain companies are generally in the low performance in 2019, because no actual revenue has been generated in 2019. With the outbreak of 5g in 2020, such companies will usher in the turning point of performance in 2020, and the orders and performance of the whole 5g wireless industry chain companies will be released rapidly.
In addition, the use and popularization of 5g network will help to realize the interconnection of everything and create a new information consumption mode, and data traffic will explode, so data processing and cloud security companies will also usher in development opportunities.
3. Merger and reorganization:
The CSRC plans to loosen the rules on refinancing, and 2020 will be the year of equity financing and M & A. As early as may 2019, Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, once said that we should give full play to the invisible hand of the market, improve the mechanism of merger, reorganization, bankruptcy and reorganization, support the injection of high-quality assets into listed companies, improve the quality and efficiency of listed companies, and inject fresh blood.
Subsequently, the CSRC also revised the refinancing rules of listed companies for public comments, and proposed to loosen the refinancing rules of the main board and the growth enterprise board, and regulate the refinancing of the science and technology innovation board.
Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the fixed increase financing demand of listed companies will continue to be released from the aspects of streamlining the issuance conditions at the financing end, relaxing the financing restrictions and reducing the investment constraints at the investment end, stimulating the investment vitality, directly attacking the core of the fixed increase market, the fixed increase market investment enthusiasm is expected to ignite again, and then adding more convenient and loose financing conditions.
It can be seen from the revision time point of previous major asset restructuring management methods that the tightening of capital market is the beginning of every round of tightening, which is often accompanied by the market turning from hot to cold. On the contrary, each loosening of the binding often ushers in a good opportunity for the market.
Tianfeng securities judges that 2020 will be a big year of equity financing, and the deregulation of policies will drive the recovery of business scale of securities companies. Assuming that the scale of refinancing will rise to 1 trillion-1.2 trillion in 2020, it is expected to bring more than 3.5-5 billion yuan of revenue increase to securities companies.
4. Mobile phone industry chain:
Welcome 5g switch upsurge
Under the accelerated penetration of 5g, the pace of smart phone innovation will be accelerated, and the global smart phone will usher in a boom of replacement, which will help the consumer electronics market with declining sales to usher in a turnaround and boost mobile phone sales; meanwhile, 5g will also promote the innovation and vigorous development of smart wearable devices represented by TWS headphones and smart watches; in addition, 5g will accelerate the development of AI, AR and IOT with each other With the advent of the Internet era, consumer electronics terminal sales will be further driven.
In this context, the previously depressed consumer electronics sector is expected to usher in the new year of consumer electronics driven by 5g, the Internet of things, AI, AR and other technologies, which will eventually drive the rapid development of the entire consumer electronics industry chain, such as precision devices, cameras, chips and other enterprises.
From the perspective of the overall global consumer electronics pattern, Samsung, apple and Huawei are the top three consumer electronics enterprises in the world, among which Huawei develops rapidly in 2019, has grown into the worlds second largest and Chinas largest smart phone manufacturer (based on the volume of shipments), and has become the smart terminal manufacturer with the largest sales volume and sales volume in China. In addition, wearable devices such as Apples wireless headphones have also been selling well recently.
To sum up, with the coming of the consumer electronics year, it is suggested to focus on the leading enterprises in the industrial chain of Huawei, apple, 5g mobile phones and wearable industries. In addition, Huawei is also building its own operating system, database, chip, etc. based on its own it underlying technology to build Kunpeng ecosystem, among which Huaweis it ecosystem partners deserve attention.
5 infrastructure sectors:
Leading indicators start to be restless
In 2019, the growth rate of infrastructure sector is at the bottom of the industry. The current P / E ratio and P / N ratio are both at the bottom of history, and most of the blue chips of central enterprises are broken. With the steady growth policy continuously implemented, the infrastructure industry is expected to continue to improve. The large volume of orders from central construction enterprises in the first three quarters has confirmed that the turning point of the industry is coming. With the word stable leading and the expectation of infrastructure underperforming continuing, the valuation of infrastructure sector is expected to be restored.
Recently, the Politburo meeting proposed to strengthen infrastructure construction and promote the formation of a regional economic layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development, which was proposed to strengthen infrastructure construction again in the Politburo meeting after July 2018. Combined with the early issuance of special debt quota, the reduction of capital ratio of some infrastructure projects, and the issuance of the Yangtze River Delta integration outline, this years infrastructure policy implementation is very definite, the construction of urban agglomeration will be accelerated, and the growth of infrastructure investment is expected to be further large.
According to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, the declared amount of infrastructure projects increased by 34.9% in the first 11 months of 2019, among which the central declared amount of projects increased by more than 100% in 7 months, and only in February there was a negative growth due to the Spring Festival. The amount of projects declared by local governments has increased by more than 100% in 10 months and by more than 50% in one month.
In addition, historical statistics show that cement index has obvious spring agitation market in recent 20 years. In the first quarter of the past 20 years, the cement index has risen for 13 years, outperforming the Shanghai index in 15 years, mainly benefiting from the policy driving of the two sessions and the factors such as the resumption of work after the year.
Construction machinery is the leading indicator of the infrastructure industry, fully benefiting from the implementation of the stable growth policy. The industry has been in a boom cycle of more than 40 months.
6 undervalued cyclical stocks:
Outstanding investment cost performance
At the end of last year, undervalued cyclical stocks changed frequently, with banks, securities companies and real estate sectors showing the most outstanding performance.
Bank stocks are the worst hit area of breaking net. The breaking net rate once reached 75%. At present, the average market net rate of the industry is about 0.85 times. By the end of December 26, 2019, the lowest market net rate of Huaxia Bank is only 0.58 times, and the highest Bank of Ningbo is only 1.92 times. The earnings ratio of banks stock market is generally below 10 times, the lowest Minsheng Bank is only 4.51 times, and the highest Zijin bank is only 13.9 times. In addition, the dividend rate of Minsheng Bank, Bank of Beijing, Bank of China, Bank of communications and other shares exceeds 5%.
At present, the macro-economy shows a strong resilience, while the banking sector is still at a low valuation, with a high dividend rate. Since December last year, Beishang capital has bought 7.5 billion yuan of banking stocks, and nearly half of the banking stocks have been bought more than 100 million yuan by Beishang capital.
In recent years, the stock market of securities companies has also seen frequent collective gains. In December last year, the plate index rose nearly 16%, far more than the 6.2% increase of Shanghai stock index in the same period, basically copying the market at the end of 2014.
The real estate sector is also a valuation depression for a shares, with 27 stocks with a P / E ratio of less than 10 times, one more than banks. The number of broken net stocks is up to 36, which is the industry with the largest number of broken net stocks. In addition, recently, MLF, Omo and LPR interest rate reduction continue to appear. The peoples Bank of China announced on January 1, 2020 that it decided to reduce the reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point on January 6, 2020, which greatly improved the market expectation for the real estate industry.
7 semiconductor industry:
Benefit from autonomous and controllable strategy
Recently, the trend of national integrated circuit industry investment fund (large fund) has once again focused the markets attention on the chip industry. According to wind data, there are about 60 chip related stocks in the A-share market at present, and the largest market value is Weils share price which rose more than 4.5 times last year.
With the upgrading of domestic high-tech industry, the independent control of semiconductor industry chain is a strategic task. From the current scale of domestic and overseas semiconductor listed companies, the overall market value of A-share semiconductor enterprises is less than 1 trillion yuan, and the overall market value of overseas semiconductor listed companies is more than 10 trillion yuan, about 10-15 times of that of domestic companies. The largest market value of overseas semiconductor enterprises is 20 times that of A-share semiconductor enterprises.
According to Guoxin Securities, under the background of continuous transfer of semiconductor industry chain to China in the next 10 years, Chinas semiconductor listed companies have an overall 10 times growth space and 20 times growth space of industry concentration to the leader.
The second phase of the national big fund was registered and established in October last year with a registered capital of 204.15 billion yuan. The purpose of the first phase investment of big fund is to complete the industrial layout, and the second phase fund pays more attention to the linkage development of integrated circuit industry chain. In terms of investment direction, the second phase of big fund focuses on upstream equipment and materials, downstream applications and other fields.
A-share semiconductor listed enterprises mainly include chip design, semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials in the upstream of the industrial chain, wafer manufacturing in the middle of the industrial chain, and packaging and testing enterprises in the downstream of the industrial chain.
8 film and television media:
The industry is expected to rise at the bottom
In 2019, the life of the film and television industry and related listed companies is not easy, film and television winter is frequently mentioned. Last year, Shenwans film and television media sector increased by 20.45%, which is in the middle and lower reaches of Shenwans 28 industries. Excluding the new shares listed last year, nearly 60% of the film and television media companies share prices still rose in varying degrees last year, among which the share prices of 37 mutual entertainment, No. 100 holding, peoples network and Zhonggong education doubled.
After the overall profit decline in the first half of 2019, the operation of the film and television media sector began to improve in the third quarter, and many institutions estimated that the industry would have a positive growth in the fourth quarter. In terms of valuation, after four consecutive years of decline in the film and television media sector, the valuation risk of the whole sector has been fully released, and the current valuation is at a historical low level. According to wind statistics, the latest P / E ratio of Shenwan film and television media sector is 41 times, 47 times lower than the historical average (the average since 2012).
Looking forward to 2020, many institutions believe that the media industry will meet the new growth cycle, and the industry is expected to rise at the bottom. On the one hand, after the tax storm, the project investment cost can be standardized; on the other hand, the long-term demand for terminals is still strong, the competition pattern of content end is improved, and the industrial chain is expected to usher in the redistribution of value chain. In addition, with the rapid landing of 5g, new technologies such as VR, AR, cloud games, Ultra HD and content applications are closely combined to bring new development opportunities, and industry leading stocks are expected to benefit.
9 medical biology:
In recent years, the pharmaceutical industry has been the cradle of big bull stocks, which are favored by the market due to its weak periodicity. In 2019, the cumulative growth of pharmaceutical bio index exceeded 30%, outperforming that of Shanghai index in the same period; more than 20 stocks, such as Xingqi eye pharmaceutical, Jimin pharmaceutical, Changchun hi tech, doubled last year, with a large number of bull stocks.
In 2019, the pharmaceutical reform entered the deep water area, with the volume procurement being promoted nationwide, the price reduction of consumables being implemented in various provinces, and the reform of DGRs payment mode being actively piloted, etc. POLICIES continued to accelerate, and the internal differentiation of the pharmaceutical industry accelerated. Many institutions said that differentiation is still the main theme of the pharmaceutical industry in the future, but the logic of the industrys overall rise remains unchanged.
On the one hand, the increase of the aging population and the growth of medical and health expenditure are the important driving forces to promote the development of the pharmaceutical and biological industry; on the other hand, economic development, the continuous growth of per capita income and the growing awareness of residents health care will further promote the development of pharmaceutical and medical industries.
Looking forward to 2020, under the background of clarifying the general direction of national medical reform, the uncertainty from policies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry has declined significantly, and the market has certain expectations for normalized volume procurement, medical insurance control fees, etc. Specifically, there is still a large growth space for the industry segments with a certain policy shelter and the leading enterprises with a higher industry boom.
10 chemical industry:
Its winter to spring
Chemical industry is a traditional cycle industry, which is greatly affected by inventory cycle. The single inventory cycle is about 40 months, and now 38 months have passed. The performance and stock price of the chemical industry mostly hover at the bottom. At present, the industry average PE is 14 times. In addition, the chemical industry is closely related to the real estate cycle. From commencement to completion, the real estate projects are inseparable from bulk chemical products, and the start of the real estate cycle is being recognized. Driven by the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle, the chemical industry is expected to usher in a recovery. There is no sunset industry, only sunset enterprises. In 2019, although the chemical industry is in a recession as a whole, the advantages of large-scale leading enterprises and sub sector leading enterprises are increasingly obvious. Some subdivided leading chemical enterprises have the properties of new materials and import substitution. For example, the OLED material plate and zeolite products of Wanrun Co., Ltd. are new chemical materials with good prospects for import substitution; Yangnong chemical industry is the global leader in pyrethroids, whose layout of dicamba has recently become a new growth point, competing with international giants; Yanggu Huatai is the global leader in coke inhibitor, and the advancing insoluble sulfur products can achieve import substitution. Written by: Yan cuikang, Yin Maojun, Chen Jing, Li Shisheng, charted by: officers and soldiers, source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang Bin Gu, nf4368
Chemical industry is a traditional cycle industry, which is greatly affected by inventory cycle. The single inventory cycle is about 40 months, and now 38 months have passed. The performance and stock price of the chemical industry mostly hover at the bottom. At present, the industry average PE is 14 times. In addition, the chemical industry is closely related to the real estate cycle. From commencement to completion, the real estate projects are inseparable from bulk chemical products, and the start of the real estate cycle is being recognized. Driven by the inventory cycle and the real estate cycle, the chemical industry is expected to usher in a recovery.
There is no sunset industry, only sunset enterprises. In 2019, although the chemical industry is in a recession as a whole, the advantages of large-scale leading enterprises and sub sector leading enterprises are increasingly obvious.
Some subdivided leading chemical enterprises have the properties of new materials and import substitution. For example, the OLED material plate and zeolite products of Wanrun Co., Ltd. are new chemical materials with good prospects for import substitution; Yangnong chemical industry is the global leader in pyrethroids, whose layout of dicamba has recently become a new growth point, competing with international giants; Yanggu Huatai is the global leader in coke inhibitor, and the advancing insoluble sulfur products can achieve import substitution.
Written by: Yan cuikang, Yin Maojun, Chen Jing, Li Shisheng