The central bank sent down big gift package A shares to add catalyst in spring Market

category:Finance
 The central bank sent down big gift package A shares to add catalyst in spring Market


It is of great significance to choose the reduction between the open market renewal and the reduction. As we can expect, there is room for a cut in interest rates. Li Huiyong, deputy general manager of Huabao fund, told first finance.

At the same time, this reduction is undoubtedly a catalyst for the A-share market, which has just stabilized at 3000 and is rebounding.

The reduction meets the expectation and meets the liquidity demand

This reduction is expected by the agency.

First finance and economics learned that due to factors such as Spring Festival, tax payment, issuance of local bonds, and large amount maturity of open market operation, the liquidity gap in January was large, and the market had generally formed the expectation of reducing the standard in January.

Three aspects determine the necessity of this reduction. The first is that the early position has capital maturity; the second special bond is issued in advance, and liquidity needs to be supported; the third spring festival is approaching, which is the traditional time point of liquidity shortage, so there is no suspense to release liquidity at this time point. Li Huiyong said.

Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, told first finance and economics that the significance of the reduction is to ease the liquidity constraints in the process of bank credit issuance and release the liquidity with long term and low cost.

At the same time, since 2018, the problem of poor interest rate transmission has become prominent, and the downward trend of credit interest rate faces many obstacles, including LPR (loan market interest rate quotation) only for new loans, slow downward trend of bank debt end cost, local implicit debt resolution, etc.

Last week, the central bank announced that the pricing benchmark of stock loans will be linked to LPR, which will help to achieve the effect of interest rate reduction, and this reduction will also help reduce the cost of the banks liability side, thus leading the downward trend of entity financing cost.

However, some analysts also said that the liquidity gap in January exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and the central bank reduced the overall reserve by 0.5 percentage point, releasing about 800 billion yuan of funds. Therefore, in terms of volume, it is not enough to fully hedge the fund gap, and it is expected that the central bank will take measures such as reverse repurchase, temporary reserve utilization arrangement to supplement.

The central bank mitigates and invests long-term funds by timely reducing the reserve. First, the significance of counter cyclical regulation is more obvious, which helps to reflect the requirements of six stability ; second, releasing low-cost liquidity, which helps to reduce the banks debt cost and dredge the monetary policy transmission path; third, the advantage of reducing the reserve is more obvious than the MLF operation with a term. Li Huiyong further said.

Stock to debt excitement

In this comprehensive reduction, the market gives different interpretations on the possible performance of the stock and bond market.

Looking forward to the performance of the stock market on the 2nd. A private equity person said that the reduction will help boost investor confidence, bring benefits to the stock market, stabilize the current gradually stable macro-economy and improve the performance of listed companies.

Its hard to say how much the market hasnt digested this time. But considering the policy intention behind the reduction and the opening of some space for monetary easing, I think it may be a booster for the spring market. Li Huiyong said.

According to the above analysis of private investors, according to experience, spring is often an important time window for the market to make long, and this reduction is undoubtedly the catalyst of the market, which will further promote the rebound of the A-share market.

Zhang Jiqiang also said that adding to the previous signing of the first phase of Sino US trade agreement, the stock market may be more excited about reducing the red envelope for the new year. For bond market, Zhang Jiqiang, a fixed income analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that the reduction is expected. In the last few weeks of the end of 2019, bond market performance is strong, liquidity and allocation power are strong, so the reduction is not intensive information, and the impact on bond market is likely to be small. The use of reserve instruments does not mean flooding or rising bonds. In fact, the rise and fall of the bond market is more related to the financing cost of pledge repo in the inter-bank market, and the reduction of the standard may not necessarily lower dr007 (7-day pledge between banks and depositors). In fact, the liquidity in the inter-bank market is not very loose after the implementation of the standard reduction on September 16, 2019, which is mainly the reason. Zhang Xu also told reporters. Source: First Financial Editor: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931

Zhang Jiqiang also said that adding to the previous signing of the first phase of Sino US trade agreement, the stock market may be more excited about reducing the red envelope for the new year.

For bond market, Zhang Jiqiang, a fixed income analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that the reduction is expected. In the last few weeks of the end of 2019, bond market performance is strong, liquidity and allocation power are strong, so the reduction is not intensive information, and the impact on bond market is likely to be small.

The use of reserve instruments does not mean flooding or rising bonds. In fact, the rise and fall of the bond market is more related to the financing cost of pledge repo in the inter-bank market, and the reduction of the standard may not necessarily lower dr007 (7-day pledge between banks and depositors). In fact, the liquidity in the inter-bank market is not very loose after the implementation of the standard reduction on September 16, 2019, which is mainly the reason. Zhang Xu also told reporters.