Is it necessary for Boeing NMA to develop Airbus a321xlr?

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 Is it necessary for Boeing NMA to develop Airbus a321xlr?


Analysis shows that the a321xlr of United Airlines will be used to replace the Boeing 757-200 in the current fleet. Both have close passenger capacity and range, but a321xlr fuel consumption is reduced by 30%.

According to United Airlines executives, a321xlr can not only replace some of the older and less efficient planes currently used by United Airlines for intercontinental route operation, but also help United Airlines develop new destinations and route network.

The deal is worth $7.1 billion at catalog prices.

Airbus a321neo

Uniteds order is just a microcosm of American Airlines rush to buy Airbus a321xlr. Prior to United Airlines, both American Airlines and JetBlue have announced orders for the aircraft.

But for Boeing, with more and more airlines ordering Airbus a321xlr, the pressure will be even greater.

We need to note that although Boeing is considering the NMA program to compete for the 200-300 seat mid size airliner market, the uncertainty of this program is in sharp contrast to the popularity of the a321xlr.

United also ordered 100 Boeing 737max10, which is close to a321xlr in passenger capacity, after Boeing tried to compete with a321neo series with 737max10.

But judging from the orders of several major American Airlines, 737max cant meet the needs of airlines, so it cant replace the medium-sized airliner market in the post 757 era.

The biggest problem is the voyage. A321xlrs range advantage enables American Airlines to better apply it to Atlantic routes, and even to open some new North Atlantic routes.

Uniteds 757 fleet needs to be renewed in ten years

In the case that 737max10 is difficult to compete with a321neo, Boeing has considered the possibility of developing NMA project.

However, we also have a question: is it necessary to develop NMA?

A321xlr was officially launched at Paris air show in June this year, and delivery is planned to start in 2023. According to Boeings previous statement, NMA will determine whether to launch the new model in 2020, if the launch will start delivery in 2025.

The two seem to have little difference in planned delivery time, but the new order also shows that airlines are losing patience.

Europe and the United States is the largest market for the 757. Whether its used for transcontinental or transatlantic routes in the United States, the 757s range and capacity are suitable.

For many years, airlines have been expecting Boeing to have a 757 successor, but Airbus met their requirements earlier. In the absence of a breakthrough and a clear model, more orders will naturally flow to Boeings competitors.

Once the airline decides to use a321xlr, even if NMA is put into the market, the willingness to order will naturally decline for the sake of simplifying the fleet.

At this point, Boeing lost the lead.

NMA is still a concept

Of course, NMA does not have no chance at all. American Airlines still have a large number of 767 and 757-300 to replace. In fact, NMA can meet part of the demand of this market.

But on the 767 alternative, the Airbus a330-800 and Boeing 787-8 are competing fiercely. For example, United Airlines is ordering 787-8 in large quantities to carry out 767 fleet alternation.

As a result, NMA may only be able to gain a greater advantage in the alternative market of 757-300 in the end. However, this market cannot support the R & D cost of a whole new model.

Boeing needs to consider whether the existing NMA concept needs to be optimized to find a balance between market demand and R & D cost.

In our opinion, if the benefits from NMA are not significant, Boeing may as well concentrate more resources on other aircraft, such as a new narrow body airliner.

Boeing still has an advantage in wide body aircraft

(function() {(window. Slotbydup = window. Slotbydup| []). Push ({ID: 6374560, container: ssp_, size: 300250, display: inlay fix, async: true});)))); in fact, rather than Boeings research and development of NMA, aviation enterprises hope that Bo Yin can launch a new narrow body aircraft model after 737, and this model can have greater expansion. But in terms of current technology, no matter Airbus or Boeing, its less likely to launch a new model that can be significantly different from the 737max in recent years. But it cant be denied that after the 737max, Boeing must also have a better narrow body aircraft platform. Source: Netease aviation manuscript editor: Lin Zhiheng

In fact, rather than Boeings research and development of NMA, airlines hope that Boeing will launch a new narrow body aircraft model after the 737, and this model will have a greater degree of expansion.

But in terms of current technology, no matter Airbus or Boeing, its less likely to launch a new model that can be significantly different from the 737max in recent years.

But it cant be denied that after the 737max, Boeing must also have a better narrow body aircraft platform.