On December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) (Draft for comments). According to the opinion draft, by 2025, the market competitiveness of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, and major breakthroughs will be made in key technologies such as power battery, driving motor and vehicle operating system, with the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounting for about 25%.
Some fund managers believe that in the case of congestion of positions of many mainstream varieties, the current stock price and fund position data of the new energy vehicle sector have fully reflected the markets pessimistic expectations of the industry. From the data of the third quarter of 2019, the allocation proportion of institutional investors to the new energy vehicle industry has been at a low level in recent years, and the industry continues to move downward Yes, yes.
After the new low of the industry, the new energy vehicle leader took the lead in rebounding
According to the opinion draft, by 2025, the market competitiveness of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, and major breakthroughs will be made in key technologies such as power battery, drive motor and vehicle operating system. The sales of new energy vehicles account for about 25%, the sales of new intelligent connected vehicles account for 30%, and the highly automatic driving intelligent connected vehicles realize the commercial application in limited areas and specific scenes.
Bohai Securities pointed out that from January to October, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 947000, up 10% year on year. The installed capacity of power battery reached 46.38gwh, an increase of 34% year on year. The installed capacity of new energy passenger vehicles and special vehicles power batteries increased by 33.61gwh and 3.39gwh respectively. The installed capacity of new energy passenger cars was 9.39gwh, down 8% year on year. Since the second half of the year, the monthly sales data of new energy vehicles have declined compared with that of last year. The companies in the industry chain segment industry show a trend of accelerated differentiation. The leading companies are still optimistic about the future development space and prospects of the industry.
A key argument is that the new energy industry is at the bottom of valuation, which may be the reason why public funds and securities companies recently began to empathize with new energy vehicles. At the end of the year, there is a need for public funds to adjust positions and exchange shares, but a certain but cheap valuation plate is needed. The best thing is that the stock price in the first three quarters of this year did not show much performance. New energy vehicles may be in line with the taste of the fund.
In the context of the overall industry downturn, after the new energy automobile industry ushered in a new low, there was polarization, and some leading companies in the new energy automobile industry began to rebound from the low position. According to the data disclosed by FAW sedan, a listed A-share company, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, there are only 18 fund positions left, half less than the number of funds at the end of last year. When FAW sedans share price hit a new low of 7.63 yuan on October 21 this year, the share price immediately began to reverse. From October 22, FAWs share price rose all the way from 7.6 yuan to 11.7 yuan on December 3, a months increase of more than 50%. In addition, Ningde eras share price has risen easily by 30% since November.
At present, the industry is in the bottom stage from performance to valuation, with a high margin of safety. Bohai Securities said in a recent research report that the European traditional automobile giants continue to increase the pace of electrification, Volkswagen will invest 33 billion euros in the field of electric vehicles in the next five years, and it is expected that the overseas market will be a stable and powerful growth point of the industry in the future, and continue to maintain the optimistic investment rating of the new energy battery industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the stable growth of performance and the increasing market share Power battery companies, such as Ningde times and Yiwei lithium energy, as well as midstream material companies, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and putailai, with clear industry pattern and continuous improvement of downstream customer demand.
The low proportion of positions has reflected the pessimistic expectation of the market
From the data of active partial funds position in the new energy sector, it is easier to understand that the sector becomes the object of fund managers increase in position at the end of the year. According to the research data of securities companies, the fund position of the new energy automobile industry reached a new low at the end of the second quarter of this year. According to the second quarter report of public funds, the position of the new energy automobile industry is at the lowest level since 2018, with only 3% of the circulation shares of active partial funds. This data is slightly higher than the position of public funds in the game media sector. By the end of the third quarter, this data did not happen In essence, the new energy vehicle sector can be regarded as an area of serious fund low allocation.
According to a phrase often said by fund managers - dont go where there are many people, or the reverse strategy of no one has me. As a field closely related to the real manufacturing industry, with a huge market scale and the industry as a whole in the low allocation of institutional capital, a group of new energy vehicle sectors of a share have recently shown a continuous upward posture, or it suggests that some institutional capital may have been copied We started to get on the bus.
Some industries or stocks have been very crowded, and the fund has taken too many shares to drop slightly. Tian Hanqing, deputy general manager of Huatai parei foundation, accepted the interview with China securities broker. He also believed that the overall valuation of A shares is very cheap, but the mainstream stocks of the fund may be very expensive, and some asset structural bubbles have appeared. Those who have gone up well and funds have accumulated. Variety, there may be more risks, but there are also many A-share assets that are not rising very cheap, there are many opportunities.
Will new energy vehicles be a cheap and less crowded area in the eyes of the fund? Some fund managers believe that new energy vehicles, an area with less positions held by the fund, may have begun to usher in fundamental reversals by the end of the year.
Lu Bin, fund manager of HSBC Jinxin smart manufacturing pioneer fund, said the launch of Teslas Shanghai plant may be an important event to promote the new energy vehicle market. As we all know, iPhone 4 is a turning point event in the development of smart phone industry. Tesla will also play an important role in promoting user habits, upstream and downstream industry chains, etc. Therefore, Tesla is likely to become the iPhone 4 of the new energy automobile industry. At present, the basic conditions for turning point of the whole new energy automobile industry have been basically met.
The current stock price has fully reflected the markets pessimistic expectation on the industry. From the data of the third quarter of 2019, the allocation proportion of institutional investors to the new energy automobile industry has been at a low level in recent years. Lu Bin believes that at present, most investors in the market have reduced the industry growth in 2019 to the same or slightly higher than that in 2018, while maintaining the industry growth in 2020 There is relatively limited room for the industry to continue to move down due to differences and concerns.
Funds transferred to new energy vehicles
It is worth mentioning that when the fund position of new energy vehicles has reached a two-year low, from October this year, at the end of this year, the new energy sector with less fund positions is obviously more popular than the fund heavyweight stocks. The issuance business of the fund company also started to push the new energy theme fund products in November.
According to wind data, in the last month, the funds with the best rate of return increase are not the ones that have locked in the top ten of this years performance. Most of these funds with the highest performance have been unable to move at the end of the year. On the contrary, the theme funds that mainly focus on new energy vehicles have benefited from the fund position adjustment, and the board has rebounded strongly, and such funds have made profits, In the last month, half of the top 15 funds in terms of yield are theme funds focusing on new energy vehicles, among which, Cathay Pacific intelligent automobile fund and shenwanlingxin new energy vehicle fund all have a yield of more than 10% in the last month.
On November 28, Ping An funds Ping An China Securities new energy vehicle Index Fund released a notice saying that the fund will be put on public sale from December 9, 2019 to December 24, 2019. The fund mainly invests in the components of China Securities new energy automobile industry index and its alternative components. Among them, the proportion of component stocks and alternative component stocks invested in China Securities new energy automobile industry index shall not be less than 90% of the net asset value of the fund, and shall not be less than 80% of the non cash fund assets.
The new energy fund launched by CIC Credit Suisse fund Co., Ltd. has just been officially established in mid November. The fund focuses on investment opportunities in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, automotive electronics and Internet of vehicles. According to Shi Cheng, the manager of UBS new energy fund of SDIC, from the perspective of valuation, Shi Cheng said that the current new energy vehicle sector is at a historical low level, which is a better layout time point. The supply side of the new energy vehicle industry has ushered in a major reshuffle. At present, the signs of improvement in the demand side are obvious, and the whole industry is facing better investment opportunities.
Source: responsible editor of securities companies in China: Yang bin_nf4368