Next 15 years of new energy vehicles: 25percent of new vehicle sales by 2025

 Next 15 years of new energy vehicles: 25percent of new vehicle sales by 2025

According to the draft, after 15 years of continuous efforts, Chinas core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. While clarifying the mainstream status of pure electric vehicles, the draft also affirmed the two major technical directions of plug-in hybrid (including add-on) vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.

It is worth mentioning that in addition to the target of new energy vehicle sales proportion, the draft also proposes that by 2025, the sales proportion of new vehicles of intelligent Internet connected vehicles will reach 30%. This means that electrification, intelligence and networking are the trend of the development of the automobile industry, which has become a consensus to a large extent.

This is the first time that Chinas latest industrial plan for new energy vehicles has been publicly solicited for opinions. In 2012, the energy saving and new energy vehicle industry development plan (2012-2020) was released and implemented. The plan and a series of subsequent policies formulated around the plan provided important support for the development of new energy vehicles in China.

The 21st century economic news reporter learned that as the top-level design document of the industry, the new plan had been formulated and a lot of modifications had been made at the beginning of February this year. Before that, in mid October, there was a version of the draft for comments that was mainly from local governments, but this time for further comments from industries, enterprises, etc.

At present, Chinas new energy vehicle industry has entered a new development cycle, with its production, sales and ownership ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. However, with the gradual decline of subsidies, new energy vehicles also need to change the development momentum. How to guide the sustainable development of the industry needs to be discussed by the industry.

Affected by the release of the draft, on December 3, under the overall downturn of market volume, the auto sector led the way, with Vitti, Suo sensor, Quanfeng automobile, Wantong intelligent control and other stocks up more than 5%.

More optimistic about the future of new energy vehicles

Compared with the previous industrial planning, the focus of industrial planning in 2021-2035 has changed significantly, and it is more inclusive in industrial development.

According to the 21st century economic report, in terms of development goals, the 2012-2020 plan emphasizes the production and sales of new energy vehicles at the stage node (the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million in 2020, and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million), while the new plan emphasizes the proportion of new vehicle sales.

It is worth mentioning that the draft reflects a better prospect for new energy vehicles. According to the draft, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 will reach about 25%, while in the October version, the target proportion for 2025 is 20%.

In addition, the 2012-2020 plan also makes a detailed plan for the performance of new energy vehicles and their main parts, including the maximum speed, the driving mileage under the comprehensive working condition under the pure electric drive mode, the specific energy of the power battery module, etc., while the latest plan cancels these detailed digital targets.

An insider from a new energy vehicle manufacturer told reporters that when the plan was made, Chinas new energy vehicle industry was just in its infancy. The overall idea was to guide and promote the application of the plan, so it put forward requirements on some specific parameters. However, with the development of the industry, the tasks of the new stage were not the same. In the past few years, there has been a one-sided pursuit of indicatorsu201c Bad phenomenon.

There are some things to reflect on. The above people told reporters that there was a version of the draft that also proposed specific target values for the energy density of cells, but deleted this indicator after industry feedback. In the past two years, the spontaneous combustion accidents of pure electric vehicles occur frequently, which is related to the high pursuit of battery energy density and endurance mileage to a certain extent.

However, the draft also mentioned a detailed indicator, namely, the average power consumption of new energy vehicles, which is required to be reduced to 12 kwh / 100km by 2025. This reflects the planning requirements for energy consumption level.

This indicator has attracted the attention of the industry. Some automobile enterprises think that it is not appropriate to regard energy consumption as the core indicator of the development of new energy automobile industry. On the one hand, electric energy as renewable resources is not suitable for simple analogy with fuel consumption. On the other hand, setting the target of power consumption may restrict the development of Intelligent Networking. After all, with the improvement of intelligence, the power consumption of intelligent components can not be underestimated.

In addition, in terms of development technology path, the latest industrial planning has also been significantly adjusted, focusing on the development of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

However, it should be noted that the position of pure electric vehicles is still important in the short and medium term, and there is such wording in the development vision: strive to make pure electric vehicles the mainstream after 15 years of continuous efforts.

Pay attention to ecological construction

After years of efforts, the technical level of Chinas new energy vehicle industry has been significantly improved, and the industrial system has been increasingly improved. The production, sales and ownership of Chinas new energy vehicle industry have ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, and electrification has ranked the top in the world. But under the influence of the overall car market downturn, subsidy decline and other factors, new energy vehicles are also inevitably impacted.

According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, as of October this year, new energy vehicles have been declining for four consecutive months year-on-year, and the declining range is expanding constantly. According to the current development trend, the sales volume of new energy vehicles this year may have a negative growth.

This is a real problem. On the whole, the cost of new energy vehicles has not reached the level of traditional fuel vehicles. At the time of subsidizing and declining, it is facing a cruel development power conversion difficulty.

In the latest industrial planning released this time, there is no word of financial subsidy in the relevant content of improving the system of policies and regulations. It only refers to improving the tax preferential policies such as new energy vehicle purchase tax, optimizing classified traffic management and supporting measures such as finance and insurance, as well as breaking down local protection, establishing a unified and open fair market system.

The draft also supports the development of new energy vehicle industry in local areas and among specific entities. For example, local governments are encouraged to increase support for vehicle operation in public services, shared travel and other fields, and give preferential policies for the passage and use of new energy vehicles. It also requires that from 2021, the national ecological civilization test area and the public areas in key areas of air pollution prevention and control will be added or changed New energy vehicles will be used in all new vehicles, and specific measures will be formulated to incorporate the research and development of new energy vehicles into the assessment system of state-owned enterprises.

In order to achieve the phased goal of 2025, the new industrial planning puts forward five strategic tasks, and defines the specific path for China to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry, including improving technological innovation capacity, building a new industrial ecology, promoting industrial integration and development, improving infrastructure construction and deepening open cooperation.

The current industrial planning pays more attention to coordinated development and ecological construction. A summary of the automotive industry. On the one hand, the plan encourages the integrated development of industries, such as the integrated development of new energy vehicles and energy; on the other hand, the plan also includes the development trends of other automobile industries such as intelligence, networking and even sharing.

In fact, as early as the beginning of this century, China has put forward the development strategy of three vertical and three horizontal new energy vehicles, but the draft redefines three vertical and three horizontal, the former three horizontal refers to the control system, motor and its control system, battery and its management system of multi energy power assembly, and the three horizontal in the draft is the power battery and management system, drive Motor and power electronics, networking and intelligent technology.

The development momentum of networking and intelligence is strong, the sharing application market is growing, and the industry has entered a new stage of superposition, convergence and development. The draft states. Under the guidance of this idea, intellectualization and networking are also important power sources for the development of new energy vehicles. According to the established goal, by 2025, the sales volume of new vehicles of intelligent networking vehicles will reach 30%.

In the latest industrial planning draft, the policy encourages cross-border collaboration between new energy vehicles and enterprises in the fields of transportation, information communication, etc., so as to build an ecological leading enterprise covering key links of the industrial chain such as solutions, R & D and production, and operation services around diversified needs.

Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Chen Hequn, nb12679