The future of stepping on the line and raising the price of refined oil depends on OPECs decision

 The future of stepping on the line and raising the price of refined oil depends on OPECs decision

Although the international oil price has suffered a large-scale decline in recent days, the overall decline has not yet been transmitted to the latest domestic oil product price adjustment.

On December 2, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice that, according to the current price formation mechanism of refined oil, from 24:00 on December 2, 2019, the price of domestic gas and diesel oil (standard products, the same below) increased by 55 yuan and 50 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the relevant price linkage and subsidy policies shall be implemented in accordance with the current provisions.

After this round of oil price adjustment, according to the national average, 92 gasoline rose 0.04 yuan per litre; 95 gasoline rose 0.05 yuan per litre; 0 diesel rose 0.04 yuan per litre. According to the calculation of ordinary private cars with 50L fuel tank capacity, after the price adjustment, the owners will spend about 2 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil.

Stampede line rise of finished oil price

Before this round of adjustment of domestic refined oil price, the last trading day of the international crude oil market (November 29) saw a sharp drop in crude oil price.

As investors are worried about the prospect of crude oil production reduction agreements reached by major non OPEC oil producing countries such as the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, the price of light crude oil futures delivered in January 2020 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.94 to close at $55.17 per barrel, or 5.06%, the biggest drop in two and a half months, by the end of the day on the 29th. London Brent crude oil futures for January 2020 delivery fell $1.63, or 2.54%, to $62.43 a barrel.

However, due to the obvious rise of crude oil price in the international market at the beginning of this pricing cycle, the conditions for domestic product oil price to rise according to the mechanism have been formed before the sharp fall of international oil price.

According to Jin Lianchuangs calculation, as of November 28, the eighth working day of the pricing cycle, the average price of reference crude oil is 61.64 USD / barrel, with a change rate of 1.32%. The corresponding price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 65 yuan / ton, which has exceeded the current red line of 50 yuan / ton price adjustment. Therefore, this round of oil price adjustment has seen a stampede on the line situation.

Xue Wenyu, an analyst with Longzhong information, believes that in the current pricing cycle, the growth of U.S. crude oil commercial inventory is less than expected, and in order to stabilize oil prices and help Saudi Aramco to go public, OPEC may continue to reduce production until June next year, while China-U.S. trade negotiations reproduce optimistic expectations, all of which stimulate the continued rise of international oil prices. But recently, US crude oil production has reached a record high, which has restrained the increase of crude oil price.

After entering the winter, the price of domestic refined oil market is mainly fluctuating, mainly near the end of the year, the main business units have clearing and settlement operations, and the overall inventory level is not high. With the continuous rise of international crude oil in the early stage, regional resources are tight, which promotes the price of gasoline and diesel market to rise. In addition, some of the main business units completed their monthly tasks ahead of time, and some even completed their annual tasks. As a result, they will shift from quantity guarantee to profit guarantee. The intention of price decline is not high, which also supports the steady rise of gasoline and diesel prices.

Oil price is likely to remain volatile

Under the background of the sharp fluctuation of oil price in the international market, is it possible to reduce the price of domestic refined oil in the future?

On December 5, OPEC, Russia and other major oil producing countries will hold a meeting in Vienna. Whether the current plan of OPEC member countries and non OPEC oil producing countries to reduce production to the end of March 2020 can be further extended during this meeting will largely determine the future trend of international oil prices and domestic oil products prices.

Li Yan, an analyst with Longzhong information, said that, based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of oil product pricing cycle will start with a downward trend, with a range of about 40 yuan / ton. However, considering that most of the recent news surrounding the OPEC meeting is favorable, and there is still room for further easing of Global trade risks, the overall market outlook is not pessimistic, so it is expected that the next round of oil product price adjustment will be stranded or increased.

The price monitoring center of national development and Reform Commission predicted that the current global crude oil supply is sufficient, and the short-term news factors will affect the operation of crude oil price shocks.

On the one hand, the further increase of US crude oil production and inventory will still bring pressure on crude oil prices. On the other hand, the upcoming OPEC meeting is still the focus of market attention. Whether the crude oil production policy in the next stage discussed in the meeting exceeds or fails to meet the expectation, the crude oil price will have a certain degree of volatility.

Source: editor in charge of daily economic news: Zhong Qiming