Since November, the recovery of pig production in China is obvious, and the expectation of price increase is also cooling. According to the monitoring and regulation of 200 wholesale markets by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, pork prices across the country fell for four consecutive weeks, a drop of more than 20%. On December 1, the price of pork was 41.48 yuan per kilogram, down 10.92 yuan or 20.84% from 52.40 yuan per kilogram, the peak price on November 1.
Yang Zhenhai, director of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said Wednesday that with the promotion of various supporting policies and market pull, the enthusiasm of pig farmers to supplement their pens and increase their breeding has increased significantly, and pig production has shown a significant recovery momentum.
According to the monitoring data in October, all the important indicators of pig production have changed positively, he said. First, the number of sows that can be bred in China has risen for the first time, and the number of sows that can be bred has increased by 0.6% month on month, the first increase in 19 months, which means that the basic production capacity of pigs has begun to recover. Second, the production of large-scale pig farms has recovered rapidly, and the number of pig farms with an annual output of more than 5000 and the number of fertile sows has been increasing for three consecutive months. Third, the recovery of production has been expanding. The recovery of pig production in Northeast, northwest and Huanghuaihai region is relatively fast. The pig stocks in Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Henan, Jilin, Shandong, Anhui and other 12 provinces have rebounded, and the decline of production capacity in southwest and South China has slowed down.
On the whole, the number of sows that can be bred has risen, and the number of sows that can be bred has declined. Although the data of November has not been fully collected, according to this trend, the production situation in November should be better. He said that the continuous recovery of production means that supply will increase in the future.
As for other factors affecting supply, Yang Zhenhai said that the import growth in the first three quarters of this year was 43.6%, and the import intensity in the fourth quarter was still increasing; there were many farmers raising large pigs in the previous period, and the output of 4 large pigs was equivalent to the original 5 pigs, even if the output did not increase, the output of pork would increase objectively; in the fourth quarter, the output of pork would increase by means of import, commercial inventory transfer, etc With frozen pork reserve, the reserve is relatively sufficient. In addition, since June, slaughtering enterprises, cold chain logistics enterprises and wholesalers have a lot of inventory, which will gradually increase the market input in the peak consumption season. The production of poultry, beef and mutton and other substitutes is increasing, and the total market supply is expected to be better, which does not support the continuous rise of pig prices.
Effective prevention and control of African swine fever is essential for the resumption of production. Since the beginning of this year, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hainan and other six provinces (regions) in central and southern China have carried out pilot prevention and control work, focusing on changing the traditional mode of pig transfer and promoting the transformation from pig transfer to meat transfer.
Yang Zhenhai said that it is of great significance for the prevention and control of animal epidemics to carry out regional prevention and control. According to the situation of CSFV prevention and control in Africa, in the 155 cases that have been identified, there are 100 cases caused by the transfer of live pigs and their products and the transmission of virus by relevant personnel and vehicles, accounting for 64.5%. Regional management of animal epidemics is a common international practice and basic experience in disease prevention and control, especially in countries that have successfully eradicated the epidemic of swine fever in Africa, most of them have implemented regional control.
Recently, the prevention and control emergency headquarters of six provinces (regions) in central and southern China jointly issued the notice on the pilot implementation of measures for live pig transportation in central and southern China, which made it clear that since November 30 this year, the pilot began to transfer pigs from outside the region through point-to-point.
Will the implementation of measures related to live pig transportation lead to the rise of pork prices in six provinces (districts) in Central South China?
Yang Zhenhai said that regional prevention and control is not a regional production and marketing blockade, but serves for animal disease prevention and control. The notice issued by the prevention and control emergency headquarters of six provinces (regions) in central and southern China does not mean that all pigs outside the region are not allowed to be transferred in. First, it is not allowed to take restrictive transfer measures for breeding pigs and piglets. The qualified breeding pigs and piglets can be transferred to the central and southern region at any time. Second, as long as the pork and pork products are qualified in the quarantine, they can be transferred to the central and southern region without any other restrictions. Third, before November 30, 2020, the pigs that meet the requirements of point-to-point transfer and record in the trans large region of central and southern region can still be transferred Enter the south central area.
The above measures fully consider the direction of industrial transformation and upgrading policy and the current reality of stable production and supply, and some rumors of total ban on transfer on the Internet are not in line with the reality. He said.
Yang Zhenhai said that according to the monitoring statistics of the Central South region, since November 30, there has been no significant change in the number of pork and live pigs transferred from outside the region, and the overall price of pork is stable. According to the comprehensive judgment, the pilot implementation of measures related to live pig transportation in central and South China will not become an additional price increase factor.