Why should we break the restrictions on automobile consumption? The main reason is to stabilize the consumption of automobiles.
Automobile consumption accounts for nearly 30% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In October, the decline of automobile consumption seriously slowed down the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society. In addition, the production chain of automobile is long, the driving range is wide, and the proportion in GDP is also very large, so the country hopes to stimulate consumption and stabilize economic growth, and automobile consumption is an indispensable hand. He Lin, executive director of the Institute of digital economy, Central South University of economics and law, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.
So, does breaking the restrictions on automobile consumption mean that the restrictions on automobile purchase in big cities will be completely cancelled? Panhelin believes that considering the problems of congestion in big cities are still serious, it is unlikely that such big cities as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will completely eliminate the restrictions on automobile purchase.
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Relaxation and cancellation of automobile purchase restriction
The slowdown of automobile consumption has seriously slowed down the growth of Chinas overall consumption.
In October 2019, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3810.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 7.2%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 3487.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%.
According to data, automobile production continued to decline in October, with a total output of 2.279 million vehicles, down 2.1%. Among them, 899000 cars, down 8.7%. The output of new energy vehicles is only 85000, down 39.7%.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the promotion of International Trade Research Institute, told the 21st century economic reporter that auto consumption has entered a mature stage. In the future, the slow down speed of new car sales may slow down, and the possibility of stabilizing and recovering is great. However, new car sales have passed a period of rapid growth.
Behind this, many cities have a large number of cars. Taking Beijing as an example, data shows that by the end of May this year, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has reached 6.21 million, including 5.19 million passenger cars.
Coupled with the strict control of license plates in many big cities, the performance of automobile consumption this year continued to be sluggish.
In the face of this situation, some places have begun to take active action. For example, the implementation plan for improving the consumption promotion system and mechanism of Guangdong Province, released in May this year, proposes to gradually relax the car lottery and auction indicators in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, expand the scale of the purchase permission, and other cities shall not issue the regulations on the purchase restriction of automobiles.
In September this year, Guiyang City issued the notice on Abolishing the relevant announcement on the management of the number plate of Guiyang citys passenger cars, officially canceling the number lottery purchase, and becoming the first city in China to completely cancel the purchase restriction.
From the national policy, we can also see the encouragement of automobile consumption.
In August this year, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of circulation and promoting commercial consumption, proposing to release the potential of automobile consumption. The implementation of automobile purchase restriction should be combined with the actual situation to explore specific measures to gradually relax or cancel the purchase restriction. Where conditions permit, active support will be given to the purchase of new energy vehicles.
On November 15, Meng Wei pointed out in the above conference that it is necessary to break the restrictions on automobile consumption, explore and implement specific measures to gradually relax or cancel the restrictions on automobile purchase, and promote the transformation from the policy of restricting automobile purchase to the policy of guiding use.
The cancellation of the purchase restriction may have an immediate effect on some big cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. After all, these cities have restricted the purchase for many years, suppressed many normal car demands, and should be able to release the car consumption to a certain extent after opening up. Pan and Lin pointed out.
So, will these big cities fully open the purchase restriction?
Pan and Lin think its still hard. For example, if Shanghai and Beijing are completely cancelled, the congestion in these cities is also a big problem. A lot of times, I dont drive much myself. Therefore, I dont think cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou can completely and completely cancel the purchase restriction. Moreover, the number of cars in the first tier cities is also relatively saturated, and under the expectation of traffic congestion and various aspects, the stimulation of the liberalization of purchase restriction may not be lasting.
In fact, the signals from some big cities indicate that the restrictions on cars are relaxing, but they do not reveal the information that they are completely out of control. Taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou Transportation Bureau has clearly increased the quota of 100000 increment indexes of small and medium-sized buses from June 2019 to December 2020 based on the current 120000 increment indexes of configuration.
How to stimulate automobile consumption?
So, how to stimulate automobile consumption in addition to purchase restriction?
Panhelin believes that to stimulate automobile consumption, we must work hard in the vast sinking market. At present, the saturation of automobiles in many fourth and fifth tier cities is not high, and the residents also have the demand for automobiles. At present, the total price of automobiles is not high, and the residents in these cities have enough purchasing power.
Therefore, to stimulate automobile consumption, we need to guide some changes in the whole chain through policies. In the medium and long term, we should improve the circulation and encourage the purchasing power of third and fourth tier cities. Pan and Lin pointed out.
He believes that in terms of technological progress, we need to encourage the progress of some smart cars, so that the replacement rate of existing stock cars in first tier and second tier cities will be higher.
The 21st century economic reporter interviewed some first tier city residents randomly, and found that a large number of residents already have cars, and there is no need to replace them temporarily.
Sun Jing, a resident of Guangzhou, told 21st century economic news that her family had bought a car and would not consider replacing it in the near future. Another Guangzhou resident, Xu Lin (pseudonym), also told the 21st century economic reporter that her family has been buying cars for a long time, and has performed well in all aspects and can meet daily needs, so she will not consider changing cars for the time being.
So, if we change cars, will we consider new energy vehicles? In the 21st century, the answer for economic journalists is basically No. If you need to change cars, you will not consider new energy vehicles, because I think the development of new energy vehicles is not perfect and the supporting facilities are not mature, so you should not consider new energy vehicles. Xu Lin said.
This shows that if we want to trigger a greater impulse to change cars for first-line and second-line urban residents, the current technology of cars, especially new energy vehicles, needs further development.
However, in addition to the new car market, another car market is likely to flourish, which is the second-hand car market.
Meng Wei pointed out at the conference that we should vigorously promote the renewal of consumption. Focusing on household appliances and consumer electronics, we will implement the extended producer responsibility system, improve the recycling and dismantling system for used products, and improve the methods for recycling and updating motor vehicles, ships and agricultural machinery. We still have a lot of space and potential to tap in the recycling area.
Zhao Ping pointed out that in the future, the growth point of automobile consumption may be more in the new energy vehicle and second-hand automobile trading market. In recent years, the second-hand car trade has shown a rapid growth trend, which is based on the huge scale of car ownership in China, derived from the new car consumption demand, including car decoration, modification, car related tourism consumption, etc. are growing rapidly, and the second-hand car trade will become more and more active.
Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Yang bin_nf4368