Cross border king throw another 8.9 billion new plan pig raising of kangdalmou bureau?

 Cross border king throw another 8.9 billion new plan pig raising of kangdalmou bureau?

It is such a company that is addicted to the real estate business, and now it begins to hit the breeding industry with a lot of money.

On November 13, Kangda and the agricultural and rural Bureau of Meizhou City, Guangdong Province signed the investment framework agreement for the 600000 pigs industrial chain project of Kangda Meizhou city. The project is planned to invest in two phases, totaling about 1.5 billion yuan.

According to 21st century economic report, this is only a small part of the companys aquaculture investment this year.

Since late August, kondar has signed a number of cooperation agreements, and plans to build a number of pig breeding bases in Gaozhou City, Maoming City and other places, with a total investment of 8.9 billion yuan. There is an important background in this, that is, the six-year equity struggle for kondar has come to an end, and Chen Hua, the head of Beijing based group, has officially become the main listed company.

Judging from the current situation, the direction he set for the company may be the breeding industry.

Final destination?

Kondar, formerly known as Shenzhen chicken company and the founder of Shenzhen listed company, has been on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as early as 1994.

Listing time is long, the story is indispensable, making the current business layout of the company very complex.

Taking the recently disclosed 2019 Zhongbao as an example, the companys revenue of 1.172 billion yuan comes from 14 different businesses, including full price feed, real estate development, tap water, taxi passenger transport, house leasing, property management, etc., which are so complex that they can be called golden oil.

Although Condor also has poultry and pig businesses, its revenue scale is very small.

According to the financial data, in the first half of the year, the companys pig product income was only 25.9 million yuan, accounting for only 2.2% of the current revenue, which can be ignored. However, the feed business is relatively large, accounting for 36.7% of the revenue.

It may be that seeing the synergy of feed business and the existing breeding foundation, or the high vision of the current pig industry, comdale began to pay a lot of money to the breeding industry.

On August 21, kangdal signed framework agreements with Gaozhou Municipal Peoples government and Xuwen County Peoples Government of Guangdong Province.

The company plans to build one million pigs industrial chain project annually in Gaozhou City, with a total investment of about 3 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan in the first phase and 1.8 billion yuan in the second phase. At the same time, a project with an annual output of 1 million pigs will be built in Xuwen County, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan.

On October 30 and November 13, Kangda signed a framework agreement with the peoples Government of Dianbai District of Maoming City and the Bureau of agriculture and rural areas of Meizhou city to build an industrial chain project with an annual output of 500000 and 600000 pigs respectively, with an investment of 1.4 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan. So far, the total investment has reached 8.9 billion yuan and the annual production capacity of pigs has increased by 3.1 million.

What is the concept of 3.1 million head? Although it cant be compared with the stock of muyuan (002714. SZ), which has an annual turnover of 10 million, it is at least equivalent to the volume of new hope (000876. SZ). The accumulated turnover of the latter in the first 10 months of this year is still less than 2.75 million, and it is estimated that the annual turnover will be about 3.5 million.

According to the market price estimate, the value of the 3.1 million head is even more amazing.

Take this October as an example, the average selling price of live pigs of Wynns stock (300498. SZ) is 36.19 yuan / kg, while that of muyuan and Xinwang is 33.5 yuan / kg and 33.98 yuan / kg.

Even if the lowest average price of new hope sales is selected, and the lower 110 kg market weight in the industry is calculated, the value of a single pig is 3685 yuan, and the total value of 3.1 million pigs has reached 11.4 billion yuan.

According to the open data of 21st century economic report, in the 25 years since kondars listing, the highest revenue in 2018 is only 3.4 billion yuan, which is the increase contributed by the current real estate business revenue from 300 million yuan to 1.8 billion yuan.

Conjecture on the effect of making money

Some insiders said frankly when they were interviewed that its a little late to spend money on pig farms, and the enterprises with keen sense of smell have already started.

According to the public information, Liu Yongxing and his companys Dongfang hope reported that in January and March this year, the annual output of 1 million pigs was built in Pingyin County of Jinan and Nanzhao County of Henan.

The key to determining whether comdar can make money this time is mainly the time point of capacity release.

Judging from the characteristics of the industry, the construction and capacity release of Kangdas pig farm can not be completed in a short time. The above people believe that the price of pigs is unlikely to rise all the time. When the supply-demand relationship begins to balance, it is the turning point of price decline.

Generally speaking, it takes six months to build a pig farm with higher specifications, and six months from piglets to adult pigs. If you choose to breed by yourself, it will take one to one and a half years for you to be able to breed sows and binary sows. Zhuo Chuang information pig industry analyst Zhang Lili said Thursday.

According to this, even if Condor chooses to build its own pig farm and purchase its own piglets, the fastest time for pigs to go out of the market will be until the end of 2020.

From the details of the projects disclosed by the listed companies, they are all self-sustaining, and the actual launch node may wait until the middle of 2021, which has not yet considered the factors of staged investment of the projects and the need to ramp up production capacity.

The potential risks faced by the 3.1 million pigs project cannot be ignored.

The first is the source of sows. The market price of the two yuan reserve sows is about 5000 yuan per sow, which can be bought, but the supply is not sufficient. Zhang Lili said.

The second is epidemic risk. Although it was stable in the second half of the year, the epidemic continued to recur in some areas.

According to the website of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China on November 13, African swine fever occurred in Tengchong City, Yunnan Province, and a farmer in Jietou Town, Tengchong city. At the time of the outbreak, 261 live pigs, 177 of them were sick and 97 died.

However, some insiders also judge that when the end of 2020, when the market of Kangdas pigs starts to come out, even if the price of pigs falls, there will not be much room for reduction.

Production capacity can not be recovered in a short time, but the current high price is also difficult to sustain. It is expected that the pig price will fall to around 30 yuan / kg in the second half of next year, and there is limited space for downward adjustment. Zhang Lili said.

According to this trend, the gross profit margin of pig breeding industry can still reach about 50%, and the higher price provides sufficient safety cushion for such late moving breeding enterprises as kangdal.

Its not hard to earn money by raising pigs, but its better to move quickly

Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Yang bin_nf4368