2900 points of a share support strong consumer electronics

category:Finance
 2900 points of a share support strong consumer electronics


With the main line position of science and technology stocks becoming more and more popular, some institutions assert that the starting point of a large cycle of science and technology innovation is at present, and they are optimistic about big innovation, especially in the field of hard science and technology, import substitution and 5g related industrial chain targets in the medium term.

Bull stocks emerge in endlessly

According to wind data, excluding the newly listed stocks in recent years, 11 stocks have reached a new high in communication, computer, electronics and other technology categories in the past five trading days, 10 of which belong to the electronics industry, including Yutong optics, zhuoshengwei, Pengding holdings, Shengbang shares, Weil shares, Guangpu shares, feirongda, lingyizhizao, Lixun precision, Wentai technology.

In the past five trading days, 56 stocks have reached a 60 day high, 34 of which belong to the electronics industry. The recent strong position of the consumer electronics sector can be seen.

According to the third quarter report of this year, the profitability of the consumer electronics industry has improved significantly. According to the Southwest Securities Industry Research Report, there are three main lines of performance growth in the consumer electronics industry chain: first, the value of mobile phone RF and related parts brought by 5g is improved, and companies involving RF front-end and related parts are expected to benefit; second, investment opportunities brought by domestic substitution are expected to benefit companies with import substitution logic; third, the introduction of new products, TWS headset as Star products are the main driving force for the growth of consumer electronics performance. Several generations of airpods released by Apple have achieved great success. At the same time, with the new technology of TWS developed by Qualcomm and Huawei gradually coming to the market, TWS headset is expected to become an important growth point of consumer electronics in the future.

According to statistics, as of September, there are 129 5g terminal devices in 2019. In addition to consumer level terminal products such as smart phones, they also include industrial terminals such as robots and drones. Among them, smart phone is still the most important terminal application of 5g technology. As of September, the number of 5g smartphones released worldwide in 2019 was 41.

According to the Pacific Securities Strategy Research Report, for 5g, smart phone is the most mature downstream application terminal at present; for smart phone, 5g is expected to become a new driving force to drive the shipment back to the growth track. This year is the first year of 5g mobile phone development. Almost all the worlds first-line Android brand manufacturers have relevant products, and they have penetrated the price range of 3000-4000 yuan. For apple, it is expected that the new product will carry 5g chip in the second half of 2020. For the above reasons, after the layout in the first year (2019), the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones is expected to increase rapidly in 2020.

Some market participants believe that the good third quarter report, together with the expected volume of products next year, is an important reason for the markets pursuit of Consumer Electronics Stocks in the near future.

Strong support at 2900 points

On the 14th, the three major A-share indexes rose slightly. Among them, the Shanghai index rose 0.16% to 2909.87, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.61% to 9746.56, and the growth enterprise market index rose 0.64% to 1692.58. The total turnover of the two cities is about 387.8 billion yuan.

In terms of technical form, on the 12th, the Shanghai index reached the bottom with a single needle, on the 13th, it confirmed the support twice, and on the 14th, it received a small Yang star. In the three trading days, the Shanghai index overall maintained 2900 consolidation points. Market participants pointed out that the strong support around 2900 points has been repeatedly verified, and the index has shown a certain resilience. The reason for such resilience is that, on the one hand, the market has little momentum to kill the market, on the other hand, it is related to the outstanding performance of technology stocks represented by consumer electronics.

Lianxun Securities believes that the A-share market may usher in a rising market at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, the Shanghai composite index may challenge the 3700 point region in 2020, and the market in the first half of 2020 may be more certain.

From a longer cycle, securities companies are more optimistic about the slow bull trend of a shares. Societe Generale Securities said that factors such as the general trend of liquidity easing and acceleration of market opening have brought opportunities for stock valuation improvement. Under the guidance of residential allocation, institutional allocation and global allocation, the era of real rights and interests in China is expected to open, and A-share will usher in long bull.

According to China Merchants Securities, from historical experience, A-share ushers in an upward cycle of two and a half years every seven years. 2019 is exactly the starting point of this upward cycle. It is expected that the market in the first half of 2020 will be more structured.

In terms of incremental capital, foreign investment is still a relatively certain force. Minsheng securities strategy research report points out that the internationalization process of A-share continues to advance, and the three major overseas indexes are expected to further increase the proportion of A-share in 2020. In March 2020, FTSE Russell will increase the A-share inclusion factor to 25%. It is estimated that in 2020, the increase of northward capital is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan. In addition, the inflow channel of foreign investment is expected to be further unblocked, and the funds from QFII and rqfii are expected to maintain a stable growth trend. It is estimated that the incremental fund of QFII / rqfii in 2020 will be about 80 billion yuan.

Focus on new technology cycle

The structure of the market is in full swing, it is particularly important to choose a good track. Looking forward to 2020, which sectors deserve attention?

Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, believes that two clues can be followed to seek the investment direction with excess return in 2020: one is the great innovation represented by the growth of science and technology; the other is the varieties with high dividend rate, high dividend and stable undervalued value. In terms of industry allocation, focus on core assets, high dividend assets and technological growth.

CICC said that in the next 3-6 months, it is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, food and beverage, medicine and some service industries that tend to outperform the market during inflation, and agriculture and related industries that benefit from high food prices; second, industries that benefit from 5g and deepening of application cycle, and related industries of science and technology industry chain; third, relatively backward and low valuation in the consumer sector , industries with low expectations and low institutional positions but potential for positive changes in the future, such as home appliances, automobiles, etc. In addition, the financial sector with absolute undervalued value and large market value may also have relative earnings at a certain stage. CICC suggested that in terms of theme, it could focus on industrial upgrading and new made in China, consumption upgrading, second-line leading, 5g and application, state-owned enterprise reform and other themes. China Merchants Securities said that the strongest main line in 2020 still comes from the new technology cycle brought by 5g. In terms of industry configuration, it is suggested to focus on technology, securities companies and undervalued real estate construction. Specifically, liquidity driven securities companies, stable growth of real estate construction and counter cyclical medicine are expected to perform well next year. From the perspective of science and technology cycle and policy cycle, next years market style may return to the balanced or smaller market style, superimposing the new technology progress cycle, TMT plate also performs well. Source: responsible editor of China Securities News: Yang bin_nf4368

CICC said that in the next 3-6 months, it is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, food and beverage, medicine and some service industries that tend to outperform the market during inflation, and agriculture and related industries that benefit from high food prices; second, industries that benefit from 5g and deepening of application cycle, and related industries of science and technology industry chain; third, relatively backward and low valuation in the consumer sector , industries with low expectations and low institutional positions but potential for positive changes in the future, such as home appliances, automobiles, etc. In addition, the financial sector with absolute undervalued value and large market value may also have relative earnings at a certain stage.

CICC suggested that in terms of theme, it could focus on industrial upgrading and new made in China, consumption upgrading, second-line leading, 5g and application, state-owned enterprise reform and other themes.

China Merchants Securities said that the strongest main line in 2020 still comes from the new technology cycle brought by 5g. In terms of industry configuration, it is suggested to focus on technology, securities companies and undervalued real estate construction. Specifically, liquidity driven securities companies, stable growth of real estate construction and counter cyclical medicine are expected to perform well next year. From the perspective of science and technology cycle and policy cycle, next years market style may return to the balanced or smaller market style, superimposing the new technology progress cycle, TMT plate also performs well.