Earlier in the first quarter of 2019, the online winning rate of Bank of Qingdao, Bank of Xian and Qingnong commercial bank were all within 0.21%, the lowest was less than 0.14%, and the number of subscribers exceeded 15 million at most. However, compared with Zheshang Bank, the issuance of new shares of these banks is relatively small. In addition to Qingnong commercial bank, all of them are within 500 million shares, with a minimum of more than 330 million shares, while Zheshang Banks issuance is more than 2.5 billion shares, ranking second in recent years.
The decline in the number of subscribers and the rise in the winning rate and the abandonment rate are not unique to banking stocks. In the past two months, the main board, science and technology innovation board and other new shares have also seen similar situations. However, it is precisely because of the large scale of issuance and the large circulation after IPO. With the acceleration of the pace of A-share break, what kind of performance will Zheshang Banks A-share listing have attracted the attention of the market.
New high winning rate of online subscription
Compared with the issuance of Yunong commercial bank a month ago, the online issuance winning rate of Zheshang Bank has increased significantly.
Zheshang Bank disclosed on the evening of the 14th that the number of effective subscription accounts for the online issuance was 10966105, and the number of effective subscription shares was 270446547000, with a preliminary winning rate of 0.28286551%. After callback, the final online issuance was 1.86 billion shares, and the final winning rate was 0.68805131%.
Compared with Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank, the initial winning rate of Zheshang Bank has increased nearly twice. According to the disclosure, the initial online winning rate of Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank is 0.14435959%, and the final winning rate after the call back is 0.35114522%, far lower than that of Zhejiang Commercial Bank.
The higher winning rate of Zheshang Bank is related to its higher IPO scale. The bank issued no more than 2.55 billion shares at a price of 4.94 yuan and raised a total of 12.597 billion yuan. Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank issued 1.357 billion shares at a price of 7.36 yuan.
Earlier, when the Bank of Qingdao, Bank of Xian and Qingnong commercial bank went public in the first quarter of 2019, the online winning rate was 0.2060226662%, 0.20839860% and 0.1938283217% respectively. In July, the winning rate of Suzhou bank also decreased significantly, and the final winning rate was 0.1309424821%.
Not only in banking stocks, the winning rate of Zheshang Bank has reached a new high since the implementation of the credit purchase system for A-share in 2016. According to public data, including Zheshang Bank, in the past four years, there have been four new shares with a winning rate of more than 0.5% in online subscription, and the previous record winning rate was 0.61478% for CNOOC development.
The higher winning rate is not related to the profit-making effect of new shares. On October 29, Yunong commercial bank failed to block the trading limit on the first day of listing, and fell the limit on the next day, then fell continuously, and broke on November 11 in 10 trading days.
An institutional investor in South China previously analyzed to the first financial reporter that when the effect of making money is not obvious, it will form a reminder effect on investors, which will lead to a decrease in the number of participants and an increase in the winning rate. In addition, although all of them are banks, the impact of issuance pricing also depends on specific banks, and there will be differentiation among different banks.
According to the number of issuance, the issuance scale of Zheshang Bank is not only in the forefront of the new financial and bank stocks listed in recent years, but also in the second place in the whole A-share market. Only China Guanghe listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 26, 2019, with nearly 5.05 billion new shares issued more than Zheshang Bank.
Bank of Xian, Bank of Qingdao and other banks have low winning rate and small issuing scale. Among them, Bank of Xian and Bank of Qingdao issued 444 million shares and 450 million shares; Qingnong commercial bank issued 555 million shares and Bank of Suzhou only issued 333 million shares.
It is not only Zheshang Bank, but also the new shares with high winning rate in recent years, with large scale of issuance. In the case of Huaneng hydropower and CNOOC, the IPO volume is more than 1.8 billion shares, 1.8 billion shares and 1.86 billion shares respectively, with a winning rate of 0.51337%. In addition, the winning rate of Bank of Jiangsu and China Taibao is also over 0.43%, and the issuance volume is 1.15 billion shares and 1.8 billion shares respectively.
Investors enthusiasm for subscription declined
In terms of the number of investor accounts participating in subscription, with the decrease of trading limit, the markets enthusiasm for subscription of new shares has indeed declined.
According to Zheshang Bank, the number of online investors participating in the subscription is 10.96 million, while the number of online subscribers of Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank is still more than 12 million, 12.6 million. In just one month, the number of online subscribers dropped by more than 1.6 million.
When the Bank of Xian and the Bank of Qingdao issued online, the number of investors subscriptions was also more than 12 million, 12.18 million and 12.31 million respectively. When we arrived at Qingnong commercial bank and Suzhou bank, the number of investors went up all the way, reaching 15.2 million and 13.51 million respectively.
The situation of offline distribution is similar to this. Public data shows that the number of offline placement investors of Bank of Xian, Qingnong commercial bank and Bank of Qingdao are all maintained between 1977 and 4200, while the issuance of Bank of Suzhou is small, but the number of offline investors has reached 3077.
In terms of the number of shares to be repurchased, Bank of Xian, Bank of Suzhou and Qingnong commercial bank were 996000 shares, 952000 shares and 1350000 shares respectively, with the repurchasing rate of about 0.22%, 0.3% and 0.25%, while Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank was about 4.86 million shares, with the repurchasing rate of 0.35%, showing a slight increase.
This is not the only phenomenon of banking stocks. Since the next day and the third day of Qisheng technologys listing on October 31, and the first days gains of Zhiyuan Internet and jiepute were significantly reduced, the number of investors in the online issuance of new shares on other main boards and science and technology innovation boards also began to decline slightly.
According to the disclosed data, when Hongquan IOT was launched online at the end of October, the initial winning rate was 0.03219705%, the final winning rate was 0.04292939%, and the number of effective subscription applications was 3.49 million. On November 5, Lianrui New Material Co., Ltd. issued 3.422 million online subscription applications. Two days later, the number of effective applications for Jinshan office has dropped to 3.2996 million, nearly 200000 less than Hongquan IOT, and the winning rate has increased to 0.05343317%.
This situation is also reflected in the motherboard. On October 9, the number of effective subscription applications for online issuance of CCCC was 11.99 million, with a winning rate of 0.04823336%. Tongda Electric disclosed on November 14 that its number of effective subscription applications was 11.26 million, with a winning rate of 0.05625779%. However, Tongda Electric has issued more than 87.92 million shares, while Jiaojian has only 49.9 million shares. However, the number of subscribers is more than Tongda Electric.
Industry insiders believe that with the increase of the supply of science and technology innovation board and the acceleration of the launch of the gem registration system, the new stock supply situation will change in the future. The era of new must hit and new must fry will never return. The investment concept of the buyers self-sufficiency has been accepted by investors. The rising of the new stock winning rate and the declining enthusiasm of investors are inevitable for the development of A-share market.
How the stock price will walk
According to the original plan, the online and offline issuance of Zheshang Bank was supposed to take place on October 24, but due to pricing and market reasons, the banks issuance time was postponed to November 14. But there is a precedent for Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank to break. The market expects that the stock price performance of Zheshang Bank after listing will face certain pressure.
In the first three trading days of listing, the trend was not good, and Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank continued to fall after that, and failed to stop its decline after breaking off on November 11. As of the closing on November 13, the share price of the bank closed at 6.93 yuan. Although it turned red on November 14 and closed at 7.14 yuan, it was still lower than the issue price of 7.36 yuan by 0.22 yuan.
In terms of pricing, the issuing price of Zheshang Bank is 4.94 yuan, with a P / E ratio of 9.39 times, slightly higher than that of Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank. As for the price difference between a and H shares, as of November 14, the closing price of H shares of the bank was HK $4.45. After the exchange rate was converted, the price difference between them was also more than 20%. The first financial reporter learned that the main underwriter of Zheshang Bank had sent a text message the day before to remind the investors who had participated in the offline inquiry of Zheshang Banks IPO and successfully shortlisted for an effective quotation to apply for offline purchase on time on the 14th and remind them of the risk of being blacklisted after violating the rules. The circulation market value scale of Zheshang Banks A-share IPO will reach more than 10 billion yuan according to the issue price. According to the disclosure, the bank has issued 689 million shares offline, of which 207 million shares are issued on a regular basis without lock, and 1.86 billion shares are issued online, totaling nearly 2.07 billion shares. The circulation market is too large, which brings some resistance to the subsequent share price rise. Source: First Financial Editor: Yang bin_nf4368
In terms of pricing, the issuing price of Zheshang Bank is 4.94 yuan, with a P / E ratio of 9.39 times, slightly higher than that of Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank. As for the price difference between a and H shares, as of November 14, the closing price of H shares of the bank was HK $4.45. After the exchange rate was converted, the price difference between them was also more than 20%.
The first financial reporter learned that the main underwriter of Zheshang Bank had sent a text message the day before to remind the investors who had participated in the offline inquiry of Zheshang Banks IPO and successfully shortlisted for an effective quotation to apply for offline purchase on time on the 14th and remind them of the risk of being blacklisted after violating the rules.
The circulation market value scale of Zheshang Banks A-share IPO will reach more than 10 billion yuan according to the issue price. According to the disclosure, the bank has issued 689 million shares offline, of which 207 million shares are issued on a regular basis without lock, and 1.86 billion shares are issued online, totaling nearly 2.07 billion shares. The circulation market is too large, which brings some resistance to the subsequent share price rise.