Detailed explanation of macroeconomic data in October: continuous release of consumption potential

category:Finance
 Detailed explanation of macroeconomic data in October: continuous release of consumption potential


At the same time, Liu Aihua pointed out that at present, the global economic growth is slowing down, there are many external unstable and uncertain factors, domestic cyclical problems and structural contradictions overlap, and the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. We should strive to implement the policies that have been issued, coordinate and link them, enhance the resilience of economic development, resist downward pressure on the economy, promote stable employment growth, maintain basic price stability, and do a solid job in ensuring peoples livelihood.

Steady expansion of market sales

Regarding the future economic trend, Liu Aihua summed up as long-term basis, short-term support. After a long-term development, we have accumulated a solid material foundation, increasingly improved infrastructure, gradually completed industrial system, very rich human resources, increasing high-quality talents, and growing market scale. Chinas economy is resilient and has great potential, but also has vigorous vitality.

In the short term, there are still many supports for the economy to maintain stable operation. The consumption potential has been released continuously, the kinetic energy of industrial upgrading has been continuously enhanced, the vitality of opening up has been continuously demonstrated, and the policy effect has been continuously demonstrated.

In terms of consumption, from January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 33477.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to September. In October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3810.4 billion yuan, up 7.2% year on year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, the total retail sales of social consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 8.3%.

Liu Zhe, vice president of Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, told the first financial reporter that from January to October, the overall growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. Structurally speaking, the retail sales of rural consumer goods are faster than that of urban consumption, and the promotion of sinking market, the construction of consumer infrastructure such as convenient logistics, perfect supply chain and flexible payment mode are conducive to stimulating the development of consumption potential in the third and fourth tier cities Played a positive role in promoting.

According to the location of business units, in October, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 3274.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% year on year; the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 536 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6%. From January to October, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 28626.8 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year; the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 4851 billion yuan, up 9.0%.

Liu zhe said that from the perspective of structure, the traditional automobile consumption in the stage of relatively saturated supply still has some downward pressure, and has entered the supply aging stage, but the consumption of upgrading goods, such as communication equipment, sports and entertainment products, is still growing rapidly.

According to the data, the number of communication equipment and sports and entertainment products in units above the designated size increased by 22.9% and 11.5%, respectively, faster than the total retail sales of all social consumer goods by 15.7 and 4.3 percentage points. Domestic tourism revenue and the total box office revenue of the national film continued to grow rapidly.

Liu zhe believes that in the future, we need to take multiple measures to meet consumer demand and stimulate consumption potential. The first is to improve the consumption capacity of residents from the demand side by reducing taxes and fees; the second is to unblock supply channels, accelerate the construction of supporting facilities for rural consumption, and start the growth valve of sinking market. Third, improve the quality of supply, optimize the structure, enhance the consumers shopping experience itself, and stimulate the final demand.

The growth rate of private investment is still down

In terms of investment, from January to October, Chinas fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 51088 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, 0.2% lower than that from January to September. From January to October, investment in high-tech industry increased by 14.2% year-on-year, faster than the total investment by 9.0 percentage points, among which investment in high-tech manufacturing industry and high-tech service industry increased by 14.5% and 13.7% year-on-year respectively. Investment in social sectors increased by 12.9% year-on-year, among which investment in education, culture, sports and entertainment increased by 18.0% and 13.8% respectively.

According to Liu Zhes analysis, the structural characteristics of the growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to October are obvious. The downward pressure on the growth rate of fixed asset investment in traditional manufacturing industry is large, which is in line with the law of investment change in the late industrialization and urbanization. At the same time, the growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing industry and high-tech service industry has been maintained at more than 10%, reflecting the investment growth potential in the new economic field in the economic transformation.

The growth rate of investment in the fields of complete competition and oversupply has declined, while that in the fields of insufficient supply has risen. One drop and one rise are also inevitable trends to meet the needs of a better life and high-quality economic development. Liu Zhe said.

By sector, infrastructure investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, manufacturing investment by 2.6% and real estate development investment by 10.3%.

Liu zhe said that the current peak of infrastructure investment has passed, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment fell slightly from January to October, in line with expectations. In the future, infrastructure investment will focus on the field of peoples livelihood and the short board field in the central and western regions, to hedge the saturation pressure of traditional infrastructure, and to support infrastructure investment to maintain a relatively stable growth rate for a period of time.

58 Zhang Bo, President of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, told the first financial reporter that overall, the growth rate of national real estate development and investment continued to decline, continuing the trend of continuous growth rate decline since May this year. However, it is worth noting that the decline in the eastern and northeast regions is particularly obvious. Due to the high absolute value of investment in the eastern region, the slowdown in its growth rate has a significant pull-down effect on the national average.

By industry, investment in the primary industry decreased by 2.4%, investment in the secondary industry increased by 2.3%, and investment in the tertiary industry increased by 6.8%. Private investment reached 29152.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%.

Liu zhe stressed that it is worth noting that the growth rate of private investment is still in a downward trend and has been lower than the growth rate of fixed assets for seven consecutive months. In the future, it is necessary to increase reform efforts, implement tax reduction and fee reduction, deepen the reform of business environment, stimulate the vitality of micro main bodies, stabilize the expectations of enterprises for economy and operation, and realize the transmission from expected improvement to investment improvement.

Survey unemployment slightly down

It is worth mentioning that from January to October, 11.93 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, and the goal of 11 million new urban jobs was achieved in advance.

The survey also showed a drop in unemployment. In October, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month. Among them, the unemployment rate in the population survey of 25-59 years old is 4.6%, which is the same as last month. The unemployment rate in 31 cities and towns was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month. The average working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide are 46.8 hours a week, an increase of 0.1 hours over the previous month.

Liu Aihua said that the factors of economic aggregate expansion, structural adjustment, entrepreneurship and innovation, and the continuous effect of employment stabilization policies are the four very important reasons why the employment situation remains stable under the downward pressure of the economy.

The continuous expansion of economic aggregate brings about incremental effect. GDP in the first three quarters of this year still maintained a medium high growth rate of 6.2%. It is estimated that each percentage point of economic growth will generate about 2 million jobs, and 6.2% of the growth rate should be able to generate between 11 million and 12 million jobs. Liu Aihua said.

This year, the government attaches great importance to the promotion of employment. At the macro policy level, employment has always been given priority, and the policy effect continues to show, especially in solving the employment of key groups. In October, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey fell to 5.1% from 5.2% in September. The most important factor is that the employment situation of college graduates is gradually improving. In October, the unemployment rate of college graduates aged 20-24 dropped by more than 1 percentage point.

Prices are a livelihood issue of high concern. Due to the rise of pork prices, CPI rose 3.8% year on year in October, a new high in more than seven years. However, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.1% on a month on month basis, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; it rose 1.5% on a year-on-year basis, the same increase as the previous month. For example, excluding the rise in pork prices, CPI rose about 0.1% on a month on month basis, up about 1.3% on a year-on-year basis, and was generally stable.

Liu Aihua said that the current price rise continues to show the characteristics of structural rise. In terms of CPI as a whole, it is mainly driven by food prices. In October, food prices rose 15.5% year on year, driving CPI up 3.05 percentage points, contributing 80% to CPI. In the case of relatively high food prices, non food prices continue to maintain a relatively stable rise.

With regard to the next price trend, Liu Aihua said that from the current situation of pork, governments at all levels attach great importance to the restoration of pig production. Recently, various measures have been taken to ensure supply and price stability, and various ways have been taken to increase pork supply. The mechanism of linkage between social assistance and security standards and price rise has been launched in a timely manner to increase living subsidies for the people in need and ensure the groups in need Peoples lives are not affected. With the implementation of policies and measures related to the recovery of pig production, pig production capacity will gradually recover and pork prices will gradually stabilize.

Source: First Financial Editor: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931