In many financial products, although there is no return on October linked insurance, the average return on September linked insurance is only 0.47%, far lower than bank financing, trust, P2P and other products. As the trend of investment linked insurance earnings is positively related to the trend of A-share, the probability of average investment linked insurance earnings in October is flat.
Decline in bank financing and goods based income
Since last year, the new regulations based on the new regulations on asset management and financial management have taken a number of combined measures, such as breaking the rigid exchange, de nesting, breaking the capital pool and shadow bank, and implementing the transformation of net worth. Under this influence, bank financial management faces a difficult transformation at both the sales end and the investment end, and the survival scale, quantity and income of financial management have declined.
From the perspective of data, in the fourth quarter of 2017, the number of bank financing continued to exceed 120000. Under the pressure of transformation, by the third quarter of 2019, the number of bank financing continued to be less than 100000. From the perspective of survival scale, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the number of financing continued to reach the peak of about 31 trillion yuan, which is worthy of being the king of the scale of the capital management industry, but the scale has declined subsequently. According to the general standard of profit According to the accurate estimation, by the third quarter of 2019, the financing market will last for about 27 trillion yuan.
In terms of income, Liu Yinping, an analyst with financial 360 big data research institute, said, the rate of return of bank financial products continues to decline, mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, the monetary market environment is loose, the market interest rate continues to fall, and the return rate of fixed income financial products, including bank financial products, is falling; on the other hand, according to the new regulations on asset management and financial management, strict investment requirements are put forward for non-standard bond assets, including strict term matching, and specific provisions are put forward for the balance of non-standard assets, in the future The non-standard investment is limited, and in the process of bank de stocking, it will also lead to further decline of financial products.
In addition, in addition to bank financial products, P2P product revenue remained at a high level for a long time. In October, the revenue was significantly higher, rising to 9.98% on a month on month basis; trust financial product revenue decreased slightly to 8.22% on a month on month basis, widening the income gap with P2P products, but both kept a high level. The income of Monetary Fund keeps fluctuating downward trend, and the income of bank financing also gradually increases.
There is no obvious risk event in the financial market
From the perspective of the banking financial market that investors pay most attention to, the general interest standard believes that the risk level of banking financial institutions as a whole declines. In particular, with the acceleration of the pace of bank transformation and the deepening of the degree of transformation, the effect of transformation has gradually emerged, which is reflected in the gradual increase of the proportion of net worth products in banks, the further extension of the investment period of financial products, the increasingly decentralized investment direction of financial funds, and the gradual return of interbank financial management to the origin of liquidity management. However, this trend will continue in the future, but financial management needs to be prevented The rigid cash behavior of institutions, the irregular information disclosure and the concentration of asset investment are repeated. In the long run, the risk level of bank financial institutions will still tend to decline.
From the perspective of P2P industry, the data disclosed by the CBRC on November 12 at the news conference showed that as of the end of October, there were 427 online operation online lending platforms under systematic supervision in China, down 59% from the end of last year, and all of them have been included in the scope of supervision; the loan balance and number of online lending platforms decreased by 49% and 55% respectively compared with the end of last year. Li Junfeng, director of Inclusive Finance Department of China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that since this year, the online loan industry has undergone a fundamental change and the stock risk has been better handled.
From the perspective of market risk of investment linked insurance, as a large part of investment linked insurance accounts are invested in the equity market, some investment accounts lost money in September. With the fluctuation of the stock market in October, there is still a negative account. Therefore, investors who invest in such insurance products still need to pay attention to the trend of the equity market.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Daily: Yang qian_nf4425