Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a house budget committee hearing to address the Federal Reserves outlook for the U.S. economy. He said the U.S. economy is in good condition and has not seen danger signals in other cycles. Low inflation indicates that there is little risk of overheating. The main reason why the US manufacturing industry lingers on the edge of recession is the deterioration of the global trade situation. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the risks. At present, it does not see the spillover effect of the weak manufacturing industry affecting the overall economy. There is little room for the fed to cut interest rates in a low interest rate environment.
In a subsequent speech, several Fed officials said that the U.S. economy is in or close to achieving the Federal Reserves dual goals, and there is no evidence that wage growth leads to excessive inflation. Williams, chairman of the New York Fed, believes that the Feds previous interest rate cut is to deal with the potential risks. At present, the U.S. economic and monetary policies are in good condition, and inflation is expected to reach the Feds 2% target. St. Louis Fed chairman Brad said that the fiscal and monetary policies will have a more effective role in reducing interest rates or repositioning inflation and expectations, and the current monetary policy is in a loose state.
Andrew hunter, US economist at capital economics, said in the research paper that the possibility of the Fed turning to the position of suspending interest rate adjustment for a longer period of time has become increasingly large.
U.S. Treasury Secretary manuchin met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the two sides are close to reaching an agreement on the fiscal year 2020 spending bill involving the border wall, which is expected to avoid another government shutdown. Nita Lowey, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said the goal was to reach a consensus by November 20 on key items in 12 spending bills.
Wal Mart, the worlds largest retailer, fell 0.3% after hitting a new record in the session. The companys revenue in the third quarter increased 2.5% year-on-year to US $127.99 billion, of which online sales increased 41%, EPS per share and same store sales growth were better than the market expected. Cisco fell 7.3% and its latest performance guidance disappointed the market.
Among the five giants of faang, Nai soared 2.30%, Google rose 1.04%, Amazon rose 0.08%, Facebook fell 0.02%, and apple fell 0.69%. On the news, Maxim announced that it would downgrade Apples rating from hold to sell, pointing out that iPhone revenue could decline next year. Chip stocks were mixed, with AMD up 2.21%, micron technology up 1.08%, NVIDIA up 0.58%, Intel down 0.14%, Texas Instruments down 0.72%, Broadcom down 1.50%, and Scarlett news down 2.36%.
In China, vipshop rose 5.70%, JD rose 0.60%, Alibaba rose 0.18%, baidu fell 0.08%, pinduoduo fell 0.89%, funny headlines fell 3.13%, Ctrip fell 4.43%, iqiyi fell 5.96%, Weilai automobile fell 7.89%. In addition, Weibo and Sina fell 17.70% and 18.75% respectively, and Xunlei fell 18.59%. The main reason is that the third quarter report was significantly lower than expected. Sinas net profit fell more than 50% year on year, The growth of microblog advertising revenue slowed down significantly, and the main business revenue of Xunlei declined, with the number of members down 11%.
Crude oil rises and falls
International oil prices failed to continue to rebound, and the unexpected rise in US crude oil inventory weighed on market sentiment. By the end of the day, WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.6% to $56.77/barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.12% to $62.30/barrel.
According to EIA data of the U.S. energy information administration, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 2.219 million barrels to 449 million barrels last week, rising for three consecutive weeks, significantly higher than the market expectation of an increase of 1.44 million barrels. The crude oil inventory of Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 1.229 million barrels, and fell again after five consecutive weeks of growth. Domestic crude oil production in the United States rose 200000 barrels a week to 12.8 million barrels a day, another record high.
OPEC reported that crude oil production in October increased by 943000 barrels per day to 29.65 million barrels per day. Crude oil is expected to be oversupplied at the beginning of 2020. If OPEC continues to produce crude oil at the speed of November, there will be a surplus of 70000 barrels / day in 2020 (340000 barrels / day in September). It is predicted that the growth of global oil demand will remain unchanged in 2020, at 1.08 million barrels / day or 1%, and non OPEC oil supply will increase by 2.17 million barrels / day, down by 40000 barrels / day compared with the previous forecast.
European stocks fell across the board
European stock markets dived in late afternoon trading as the market focused on President Trumps final decision on auto tariffs. By the end of the day, the pan European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.36% to 404.41, the FTSE 100 index was down 0.80% to 7292.76, the DAX30 index in Germany was down 0.38%, to 13180.23, and the CAC40 index in France was down 0.10% to 5901.08. Poor performance in the auto sector led losses, with Daimler down more than 3% as the company announced plans to cut costs, which are expected to have a negative impact on earnings in 2020 and 2021.
Germanys GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a technical recession, mainly driven by consumer and government spending, but machinery and equipment investment continued to decline. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scholz said that Germanys economic growth slowed but did not fall into a dangerous zone. There is no need for stimulus at present. Germanys economy will grow further next year, which is cautiously optimistic and capable of taking necessary actions in the economic downturn. Less than four weeks before the British election, the brexit Party announced that it would attack all labours parliamentary seats. The Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Johnson will lead the main opposition Labor Party by 10 percentage points ahead of the general election on December 12, according to a poll conducted by savanta comres on December 13. Source: First Financial Editor: Wang Xiaowu NF
Germanys GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a technical recession, mainly driven by consumer and government spending, but machinery and equipment investment continued to decline. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scholz said that Germanys economic growth slowed but did not fall into a dangerous zone. There is no need for stimulus at present. Germanys economy will grow further next year, which is cautiously optimistic and capable of taking necessary actions in the economic downturn.
Less than four weeks before the British election, the brexit Party announced that it would attack all labours parliamentary seats. The Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Johnson will lead the main opposition Labor Party by 10 percentage points ahead of the general election on December 12, according to a poll conducted by savanta comres on December 13.