In this regard, the central bank pointed out that the overall reduction of the release of funds is about 800 billion yuan, and the targeted reduction of the release of funds is about 100 billion yuan.
Yuan Yayu, a senior researcher at the Research Institute of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the targeted reduction today (15 days) will release about 60 billion yuan of capital, and it will have little impact on the capital for specific institutions. In addition, the standard reduction has been deployed in early September, and the market expectation has been digested in advance.
Three times of reducing the standard and raising the standard to support the development of real economy
Since 2019, the central bank has reduced the standard three times. Including the comprehensive reduction in January implemented in two times, the directional reduction in May implemented in three times, the comprehensive reduction in September implemented in two times.
It is worth noting that in the three reductions, the central bank mentioned supporting the development of real economy such as small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
As for the targeted reduction implemented today (15), the central bank pointed out on September 6 that the targeted reduction is an important measure to improve the policy framework of three grades and two advantages for small and medium-sized banks to implement a lower deposit reserve ratio, which is conducive to promoting urban commercial banks serving the grassroots to increase their support for small and micro businesses and private enterprises. All these are conducive to supporting the development of the real economy.
In addition, the two overall reductions in the year do not mean that the orientation of sound monetary policy has changed.
On January 4, the peoples Bank of China pointed out that the reduction was still a targeted regulation, not a flood of water, and the stable monetary policy orientation remained unchanged. The implementation of the policy is divided into two stages, which is in line with the pace of cash delivery before the Spring Festival. It is conducive to maintaining a reasonable and sufficient amount of liquidity in the banking system, taking into account the internal and external balance, and to maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
On September 6, the central bank again stressed that the orientation of sound monetary policy has not changed. As a hedge against the tax period in mid September, the total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable, and the targeted reduction will be implemented twice, which is also conducive to the stable and orderly release of funds.
Will it be reduced in the future?
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On November 5, the central bank launched a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, basically equal to the maturity of the day, with a term of one year and a bid winning rate of 3.25%, down 5 basis points from the previous period.
In this regard, Mingming, chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that in the future, the policy space for monetary easing will be opened. After this MLF interest rate cut, the way of volume price coordination will be introduced. It is expected to launch a reduction in the standard at the end of the year or the beginning of next year to stabilize the liquidity supply.
On November 14, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that CPI rose 3.8% year on year in October, 0.8 percentage points higher than last month, and the current price rise continues to show the characteristics of structural rise.
Liu Aihua said that with the gradual effectiveness of the counter cyclical adjustment policy, it will help to gradually play out our medium and long-term opportunities and advantages. We are fully confident in maintaining a stable, sustainable and healthy development of the future economy.
Looking forward to the future, Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the regulatory authorities will further strengthen the counter cyclical adjustment, and it is expected that the 1-year LPR quotation on November 20 will resume a slight downward trend, and there is still the possibility of reducing the standard before and after the end of the year.
In addition, Sheng Songcheng, former director of the survey and Statistics Department of the peoples Bank of China, also believes that at present, interest rate can be reduced appropriately, so as to partially alleviate the problem of financing difficulty and high cost. However, interest rate reduction mainly refers to the reduction of enterprise loan interest rate, which can be achieved through the reduction of MLF or LPR interest rate. Although it does not exclude the possibility of overall reduction in the future, at present, the bank does not lack liquidity, more importantly, it still has It is to reduce the cost of entity financing and promote the willingness of enterprises to lend. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
Source: Zhongxin Jingwei editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu NF