Chairman of the World Bank: dont expect the policy to relax the song of rising house prices

category:Finance
 Chairman of the World Bank: dont expect the policy to relax the song of rising house prices


Chen Jinsong said that the whole Chinese real estate industry has entered a new situation from now on, which requires new momentum and new playing methods. He predicted that the policy of five restrictions (purchase restriction, loan restriction, price restriction, sales restriction and commercial housing restriction) would be gradually relaxed in the first quarter of next year, but even if it was relaxed, the financial policy is also the most crucial. As long as the big principle of deleveraging remains unchanged, I think the real estate market is still not good..

Real estate is finance strictly

When winter comes, spring should not be far away. Because the current historical change of the whole industry comes from the overall development mode of the industry in the past. If we can change the operation mode and growth mode, it can actually become less painful. He pointed out that the local debt policy has been relaxed. We need to see where the local debt is used, which rail transit is used, and which major infrastructure is built. Then we will invest with the local debt investment place. Otherwise, we will see whether this plot is good or that plot is good in every city, and there will be directional mistakes.

In his speech, Chen stressed the risks of financial attributes derived from the real estate industry.

Chen Jinsong said that in the past, through the support of high leverage, high turnover and high decentralization, the universe level developers were born. Among them, the way of financing is very important. The previous regulation and control did not affect the way of financing. But this year, especially in the middle of this year, two extremely strict restrictions on real estate finance were introduced, which caused problems in the industry.

We not only used the financial leverage to the extreme, but also increased the universe level operating leverage in the past three years. If you dont add the operating leverage and off balance sheet leverage at all, this year will not be particularly hard, but if you add the operating leverage and off balance sheet leverage, you will have problems.

He further explained that operational leverage, such as the partner investment mechanism, off balance sheet leverage, such as the explanation of stock and real debt, etc. all of these things have no problem in the rising period of the industry, and will accelerate the growth, but many of the leverage is rigid, even if not absolutely rigid, but also elastic. Once there are problems in valuation, value of goods and market value, the real estate industry will appear deleveraging The huge pressure.

He believes that real estate is actually finance strictly, so we must pay attention to how finance will conduct and change in deleveraging. When there is a financial problem, a city, a project default situation, will lead to chain reaction, will lead to a large area of default.

I often meet developers who tell me that their city is healthy, Chen said, but the real estate industry is tied up with the overall financial environment, with horizontal and vertical transmission mechanisms. In many third and fourth tier cities, because the national developers didnt enter, the regional developers were cautious, didnt use any leverage, and the market risk didnt have the power to transmit. However, when the brothers of national replication of standardized products enter that city, they have problems in other cities, and the project marketing in this city is almost the guarantee of the bottom, the price will be affected naturally. So dont think the price here is not high, there will be no problem.

The marketing system of real estate enterprises involves hundreds of millions of corruption

For the recent anti-corruption of many real estate enterprises, Chen Jinsong also expressed his views. He said that in recent years, executives generally follow the investment. When the market goes down, the follow-up investment can not be realized. At this time, the original expected progress was generally delayed, and companies generally strengthened the sales KPI, which gave the management a lot of strict KPI payment collection system, resulting in the whole industry marketing system disregard mentality and sales office corruption.

In the past, there were industry rules for selling buildings. We were about 1% of the agency fee. Now when we start the channel, the channel fee is 6%, and the marketing fee has increased 6 times. Who is sharing the marketing fee of this channel? Its not about one million yuan, 10 million yuan, its about hundreds of millions of corruption.

Office vacancy rate continues to rise

As for business operation, Chen Jinsong believes that local governments should reverse their preference for business operation, be too willing to do business operation, and discriminate against housing, so that there is only one way out for business operation problems, that is, to change the use function, that is, to change apartments and houses.

For the leasing market, he said, the biggest problem is that developers have not yet focused on leasing, because of path dependence and high turnover demand. But when the collective land can be directly entered into the rental market without being recovered by the government, how can you calculate the rate of return when your self owned properties are still purchased at a high price? He said that the most important thing to reflect the economy is the industry and industry, especially the office buildings in major cities and core cities. This year, the situation of office buildings is pessimistic to more than expected. In cities like Shenzhen, the vacancy rate of office buildings continues to rise without improvement. On the contrary, he said, we must do the top-level design of accounting and finance of self-supporting property. In this respect, brokerage companies are ahead of the whole industry. If we dont do this for self-supporting property, our pressure will be greater. Thirty achievements, dust and earth, eight thousand miles of clouds and moon, Chen Jinsong concluded that the past 30 years have been dust, history and the future. We should have a new perspective and a new mentality to meet the brilliant second half of a Chinese dream city. Source: surging news editor: Wang Xiaowu NF

For the leasing market, he said, the biggest problem is that developers have not yet focused on leasing, because of path dependence and high turnover demand. But when the collective land can be directly entered into the rental market without being recovered by the government, how can you calculate the rate of return when your self owned properties are still purchased at a high price?

He said that the most important thing to reflect the economy is the industry and industry, especially the office buildings in major cities and core cities. This year, the situation of office buildings is pessimistic to more than expected. In cities like Shenzhen, the vacancy rate of office buildings continues to rise without improvement.

On the contrary, he said, we must do the top-level design of accounting and finance of self-supporting property. In this respect, brokerage companies are ahead of the whole industry. If we dont do this for self-supporting property, our pressure will be greater.

Thirty achievements, dust and earth, eight thousand miles of clouds and moon, Chen Jinsong concluded that the past 30 years have been dust, history and the future. We should have a new perspective and a new mentality to meet the brilliant second half of a Chinese dream city.