Hua Changchun, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said that since October, the price of pork has increased, as has the price of other livestock meat. Specifically, the high-frequency data in October shows that as of the third week of October, the year-on-year growth rate of pork price is 26 points higher than that in September; in addition, the year-on-year growth rate of beef price is nearly 2 points faster, the year-on-year growth rate of mutton price is also slightly higher, and the year-on-year growth rate of egg price is 5 points faster. In addition to meat, the year-on-year growth rate of vegetable prices also improved by nearly 5 points to - 5.1%, but the year-on-year growth rate of fruit prices slowed down significantly. In general, the year-on-year growth rate of food prices in October may be further accelerated. On the other hand, since October, the year-on-year growth rate of crude oil price has fallen slightly, or it has a certain suppression on the overall CPI. CPI is expected to continue to rise in October.
Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with Securities Daily that from the perspective of inflation, the rise of pork price pushed up the rise of food price, bringing pressure on CPI, which is expected to rise 3.1% year-on-year in October, but is generally controllable. On the contrary, PPI has been negative growth for three consecutive months, and it is expected that PPI will continue to decline year-on-year in October, and corporate profitability will be under pressure. Under the background of strengthening real estate regulation, the price of real estate is generally stable. Therefore, inflation and asset prices should not be considered as the main factors to reduce policy interest rates.
In terms of PPI, Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, told reporters that PPI growth in October is expected to be zero month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 1.8%. In October, the prices of crude oil, black, non-ferrous, coal and chemical industries generally turned to decline on a month on month basis. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil are generally balanced, and the neutral PPI center is expected to be between - 0.5% and 0 this year. The fourth quarter of this year is likely to be a periodic low point of PPI, which is expected to change from negative to positive in the first quarter of next year.
Li Yong, chief macro fixed income analyst of Soochow securities, said that the average price of Brent crude oil in October closed at US $62.29/barrel on a month on month basis, which was lower than the average price in September. Other bulk product prices also showed a downward trend. Therefore, it is expected that the PPI in October will be lower than the PPI in September. It is expected that the PPI in October will close at 0 on month basis (the previous value is 0.1%), which translates to - 1.7% on a year-on-year basis in October.
In terms of the trend of monetary policy, Li Chao said that in the future, price tools such as interest rate reduction may also be gradually used. It is expected that monetary policy will remain stable, mainly through credit expansion, focusing on good projects and real estate. However, there is limited space for improvement of credit supply and demand structure in the fourth quarter of this year, and the effect of credit expansion will be reflected in the first quarter of next year.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Daily: Yang qian_nf4425