The main reason for the sharp rise of stock price is divergence
Early investors intensively reduced their holdings by HK $30 billion
On the first day of being incorporated into the Hong Kong stock connect, the net purchase value of meituan Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect reached 1.205 billion yuan and 749 million yuan respectively, with the turnover reaching the highest value of the Hong Kong stock connect on that day. The intraday share price touched to 97.15 Hong Kong dollars / share, approaching a historical high of 97.4 Hong Kong dollars / share on October 21.
A private fund manager who specializes in Hong Kong and US stocks told red weekly that he was sorry for missing out on buying meituan, and that brokers have organized research, but I didnt participate. I understand that the core principle of meituan is to put the functions of Ctrip, Didi, hungry? And other software together. Before, many people questioned this model, but now it seems to be recognized.
As one of the underwriters of meituans listing, Goldman Sachs recently released a report that the reason why meituans shares were revalued in the market was mainly due to the improvement of takeout business. Goldman Sachs predicted that meituans performance in the third quarter would slightly exceed the market expectation, and its revenue would increase by 36%. At the same time, due to the factors of the golden week of the 11th, the companys predicted order volume in the fourth quarter would be increased.
On August 23, this year, meituan released the second quarter report, Q2 achieved a net profit of about 876 million yuan (RMB, the same below), which is the first (quarterly) profit achieved by meituan since its listing. The market reacted strongly to this. On the next day of the financial report, meituan directly jumped short and opened higher and closed up 8.86%. As a result, the realization of the first profit is interpreted by the market as a good start for meituan, but in fact, meituan has recovered to the issue price in June.
Zhuang Shuai, founder of Beijing Bailian Consulting Co., Ltd., told reporters that profit is only one aspect. Profit is not the key reason. For example, vipshop has continued to make profits in 27 quarters, but it cant promote the stock price to go up, including Jingdongs announcement that it has made profits several times. When meituan went public, its valuation was $53.4 billion. Many people asked me if it was too high. I didnt think it was too high. I saw $55 billion. After going public, meituan once fell to more than $30 billion. In my opinion, the first and most important reason for meituan to gain market revaluation is the competition pattern. Last year, one of the biggest concerns of capital about meituan was that meituan had too many competitors, was there any hunger in the field of takeout, there were Ctrip and flying pigs in tourism, and there were word-of-mouth and Meicai in other life sectors. Word of mouth + hungry you + taopiao + Feizhu belong to the same Ali department, which also constitutes Alis lineup against meituan. But the financial statements of meituan and Ali revealed that they could not win meituan in a short time. Secondly, meituans business logic has been verified, that is, meituans high-frequency consumption driven low-frequency consumption mode, and its customer acquisition mode has been verified to be feasible from the data. For example, people who order food and eat can go to hairdressing by the way. Such user migration is not difficult.
According to trustdata, in the first half of 2018, the transaction volume of meituan takeout, hungry and Baidu takeout accounted for 59%, 36% and 3% respectively. By the first quarter of this year, data released by DCCI showed that meituan was further away from hungry? Department. The market shares of meituan takeout, hungry? And hungry? Xingxuan (formerly Baidu takeout) were 64.6%, 25.5% and 8.4% respectively.
A technology investor who asked for anonymity pointed out to reporters that pinduoduo and meituan diverted Alis advantages and market value. Is it Alibabas strategic mistake that M & A is hungry. A large part of the sharp rise of meituans stock price is due to the change of market sentiment. The long-term fundamental performance of meituan still needs a verification process. Unless starved to utter defeat, it is likely to remain as competitive as the video industry for a long time.
The value of meituan from the perspective of retail commercial company
With the influx of funds from the south, meituan has become one of the most popular stocks among short sellers. According to wind data, in October, meituan listed the top 10 largest short selling stocks in Hong Kong, while Tencent holdings was the only Hong Kong Internet company enjoying the same honor.
Those who asked for anonymity said, pinduoduo and meituan are now favored by all, just as they were a few years ago by vipshop and Jingdong. This shows that the country is too short of good assets. Meituan may be better, with some exclusivity, less competitive pressure and better profits, but these cannot change the nature of its business model. Because of the easing of competition and the improvement of market expectation, the stock price will soar, which may be a forgetful and short-term profit seeking performance of the market. Companies like meituan are not afraid of being unprofitable, they are afraid of being profitable. Will there be a higher dimension in 5g era? This is not the potential risk point of meituan, but the common risk of the whole Internet technology leaders. In contrast, in recent years, enterprises like Anta are evolving, not based on scientific and technological progress, but only on the evolution of business philosophy, which can be captured and integrated into the changing trend of the times.
Zhuang Shuai also put forward the view that meituan should not be profitable in the short term a year ago. He said that I was surprised by the fact that meituan is now profitable. Investors should not take the profits of meituan as the investment reference factor. For example, will it continue to make profits in the future? In my opinion, meituan may make profits in different business segments. At present, it seems that the takeout segment is likely to continue to make profits. In my opinion, meituan should invest more funds, improve its ability to obtain customers and set up a deeper moat, which can resist more risks for it, especially from the risk of technology cycle - no matter when the cycle of technology cycle comes.
A former editor in chief of a science and technology creation media also had a similar feeling. He pointed out to reporters that meituan is a company with a high concentration of pure physical labor, which is why I dont like it very much.
But according to Zhuang Shuai, labor-intensive meituan is still a good company. All Chinese companies, except (ALI) social companies and (Tencent) game companies, are basically labor-intensive. I have always been in the retail industry, which is a capital and labor-intensive industry and has never been lighter. Wal Mart, the biggest retailer in the world, employs 2.2 million people, equivalent to the size of Chinas big cities. The capital market does have market value, as long as the higher the human efficiency is, the higher the value is. I just think that the management system of meituan is one of its moats. Being able to manage such a large staff is a barrier in itself. Im optimistic about meituan at present. I think it benefits from the cultural cycle, economic cycle and technological cycle, such as house culture and one person food . The economic cycle mainly benefits from the economic downturn and people are price sensitive, but this is not to say that there is any positive correlation or negative correlation - eating is not affected by the cycle, but hotel travel is affected. Technology cycle means that with the development of new technologies, new business models may be derived. Now, like the online red belt model, such as Li Jiaqi, it is a sales based on human carriers. After the rise of live broadcasting, it no longer depends on the platform, which actually poses a potential challenge to meituan.
Meituan already has the prototype of super platform
Li Chengdong, a former strategic analyst of Tencent and Jingdong, pointed out in his report at the beginning of this month that when meituans market value just stood at HK $500 billion, he analyzed that meituans market value was HK $547 billion after the business was split up, and meituan had an undervalued space. Among them, meituans take out business was assigned to 75 times PE, and its arrival and tourism business was 16 times EV / EBITDA. Meituan Hotel referred to Ctrips historical development In terms of new business, Mobai bicycle is valued at 15 billion yuan based on cost method. Compared with the scale of users, Didi should be valued at 1 / 10 of Didis value, i.e. 39 billion yuan.
If it is the overall relative valuation method, there will be more. However, the market recognition for meituan is HK $457.8 billion. Of course, valuation is greatly affected by various external factors, including investor psychology, market trading environment, etc., which will cause short-term fluctuations in market value. In the report, he pointed out that, however, the strong performance of meituan slightly exceeded this forecast, reaching a record high of HK $565.3 billion on October 21. As of Fridays closing, the market value of meituan fell to HK $544.1 billion.
For the pressure brought by the lifting of the ban, Li Chengdong told reporters, the early lifting of the ban is not a problem, the core or business. Like Xiaomi, if the performance is poor and the ban is lifted, the pressure will be great. The main reason is that Chinas catering service market is very large, with a scale of 20 trillion yuan. Secondly, the online process has just begun, which means that meituan reviews have a long-term and stable growth space. Meituan reviews are in a monopoly position in the field of catering services, which is greater than Maotais voice in the high-end market. Zhuang Shuai said that the core of meituan is to form a super platform, and the ultimate goal is to achieve cross sales of multiple categories of goods. I think meituan now has the prototype of a super platform. Many of the above are the moats of meituan, but the most important moat is meituans understanding of high-frequency consumption, organization, management and operation efficiency serving high-frequency consumption. The so-called high-frequency consumption is based on day and week, while most companies do quarterly / annual business, Ali is the quarterly business, JD is the half year and annual dimension, meituans food + p The strategy of platform is to infiltrate from daily / weekly to monthly / quarterly / annual, but it is difficult to reverse this process. u25a0 source of this article: Red weekly of securities market editor: Liu Song, nbj9949
For the pressure brought by the lifting of the ban, Li Chengdong told reporters, the early lifting of the ban is not a problem, the core or business. Like Xiaomi, if the performance is poor and the ban is lifted, the pressure will be great. The main reason is that Chinas catering service market is very large, with a scale of 20 trillion yuan. Secondly, the online process has just begun, which means that meituan reviews have a long-term and stable growth space. Meituan reviews are in a monopoly position in the field of catering services, which is greater than Maotais voice in the high-end market.
Zhuang Shuai said that the core of meituan is to form a super platform, and the ultimate goal is to achieve cross sales of multiple categories of goods. I think meituan now has the prototype of a super platform. Many of the above are the moats of meituan, but the most important moat is meituans understanding of high-frequency consumption, organization, management and operation efficiency serving high-frequency consumption. The so-called high-frequency consumption is based on day and week, while most companies do quarterly / annual business, Ali is the quarterly business, JD is the half year and annual dimension, meituans food + p The strategy of platform is to infiltrate from daily / weekly to monthly / quarterly / annual, but it is difficult to reverse this process. Exergy