The silver ten has ended, and the real estate market in China is actually stable. Data shows that at the end of the silver ten, the heat of the real estate market has declined, and the volume of transactions is less than the eve of the national day. In addition, most of the second and third tier cities, affected by policy control, have seen a significant decline in transaction area.
The land market also failed to reap the fruits of the silver ten. The data shows that the supply and demand of the land market have declined on the same month on month basis, and the overall turnover of the national land market has decreased by more than 40% on month basis, and the total amount of gold solicited has declined significantly. Gold nine has not arrived, and silver ten has also failed to keep the agreement.
The market heat of the last week of silver ten declined
According to the data released by Zhuge housing search data research center on October 30, the sales area of new houses in 20 cities under key monitoring in the last week of Yinshi was 3.404 million square meters, down 8.2% from the previous week, up 6.2% from 2018.
In addition, it is worth noting that in the last week of October, the turnover heat of new houses decreased, and the turnover was less than before the national day. From the perspective of city level, the trading volume of each line city is lower than that of the previous week. Among them, the largest decline was in the first tier cities. According to the data monitored by Zhuge housing search data research center, the area of new housing transactions in first tier cities, second tier cities and third tier and fourth tier cities decreased by 19.2%, 2.1% and 17.6% respectively compared with the previous week.
However, Zhuge pointed out that in the last week of the silver ten, although new house transactions were weaker, they were still at a higher level compared with the same period last year, and the fundamentals of real estate tended to be stable. At present, the real estate market is still stable and there is no significant change.
Nearly 60% of the second and third tier cities saw a decline in transaction area
On the whole, the silver ten once again failed to meet the property market. According to the report released by China Index Research Institute on October 28, in October 2019, the overall trading area of first tier cities declined by 15.8% month on month, with Guangzhou the largest decline of 28%. In the four first tier cities, only Beijings transaction area rose, up 11% on month. From a year-on-year perspective, the transaction area of first tier cities in Yinshi increased by 6.0% year-on-year. Each city presents a trend of differentiation, among which Shenzhens growth rate is relatively large, up 54% year on year.
The real estate market performance of the first tier cities is unsatisfactory, while the silver ten performance of the second tier and third tier cities is not brilliant enough. Nearly 60% of the citys transaction area has declined, of which Dongguans transaction area has declined by 35.2%. According to the data released by China Index Research Institute, in October 2019, the trading area of second tier cities rose by 2.2% month on month, 46.3% year-on-year.
Among them, Nanning and Dalian have the largest increase, both exceeding 30%. Wuhan is still a hot city in the second tier cities, with the transaction area rising more than 20% month on month. It is worth noting that Yangzhous trading area also rose significantly on a month on month basis, at 35.9%. But the rising cities are in the minority. Nearly 60% of cities such as Dongguan, Lianyungang, Suzhou and Qingdao saw a month on month decline in transaction area. In addition to Dongguan, Lianyungang also saw a significant decline of 34.6%. From this point of view. At present, the property market is also polarized, and the transaction data of some potential cities have increased significantly, but most cities have declined.
In addition to the general decline in transaction area, the overall inventory of the property market also rose month on month. Data released by China Index Research Institute showed that seven representative cities (Beijing, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing) rose 0.7% on a month on month basis. Among them, the saleable area of Beijing tends to be stable, and the ring is basically flat compared with August 2019. Among the seven key cities, only Fuzhou and Guangzhou saw a month on month decline in inventory, while the other cities saw an increase of less than 5%.
Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the China Times: with the increasing push of real estate enterprises in October, the supply of new houses has increased. However, due to the recent interest rates on housing loans, discounts and promotions of real estate enterprises and other reasons, many buyers still have a strong wait-and-see mood, so there will be an increase in inventory.
More than 40% reduction in land volume
The housing transaction market has declined, and the transaction of the land market is not optimistic. According to the data released by China Index Research Institute, in October 2019, the land market showed a cooling state, the supply of the national land market fell on a month on month basis, and the supply of residential land fell slightly on a month on month basis. In terms of transaction volume, the overall volume of transactions in the national land market decreased by more than 40% month on month, the average transaction price increased by more than 20% year on year, and the total amount of gold solicited decreased on month on month basis.
According to the data, in October 2019, 300 cities nationwide launched 103.36 million square meters of land, a decrease of 7% month on month and a decrease of 13% year on year. The total transaction area was 56.17 million square meters, a significant decrease of 43% on a month on month basis and a decrease of 40% on a year-on-year basis. At the same time, the transfer fee is not optimistic. The land transfer fee of 300 cities in China was 230.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 47% on a month on month basis and a decrease of 25% on a year-on-year basis. The average transaction price decreased by 10% month on month, 24% year-on-year, and the premium rate was only 10%.
Among them, Wuhans land market collected 19.87 billion yuan in October 2019, and its total transfer fees ranked first. Among the 19.87 billion yuan, Qingshan District in Wuhan provided more than 6.6 billion yuan of homestead, and OCT competed for the plot. In addition, from the perspective of cities, the overall supply and demand of the four first tier cities increased slightly on a month on month basis, but the average transaction price decreased by more than 20% compared with September 2019, and the total amount of transfer fees decreased by nearly 60% on a month on month basis.
The supply of land in the second tier cities decreased by more than 20% month on month, but the average transaction price rose nearly half year on year, which became the sweet spot in the eyes of real estate enterprises. Although the third and fourth tier cities have increased the land supply, the total volume of transactions has declined compared with the month on month, and the transaction situation is not good.
In the middle of the year, many real estate enterprises said that they would take the land cautiously or even temporarily in the second half of 2019. The financing pressure and payment collection pressure made many real estate enterprises change their development strategies, and the expansion before this turned to stable. In the fourth quarter of the market, experts believe that stability is still the main theme. Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Tongcheng and anjuke, told China Times: the market differentiation will continue, some third and fourth tier cities may continue to cool down, and it is expected that the price reduction of real estate enterprises will be more in the fourth quarter. The market will still be dominated by stability, with a small chance of overheating.
Source: China Times Author: Li futureeditor: Shi Jianlei, nbj11331