The author thinks that the war of robbing people must be analyzed from two backgrounds: first, urbanization enters the second half, that is, big urbanization and metropolitan circle, dividend population (15-64 years old) has begun to decrease in recent years; second, economy enters the age of stock, absolute quantity or growth rate of population, material (such as house, car, mobile phone, etc.), capital and other resources are declining, capital and so on When we get to you, we cant get to me. As a result, the competition for the stock resources among regions and cities is becoming increasingly fierce. Under these two backgrounds, whether it is the flow of resources such as population, the main force of consumption, real estate demand, etc., all show obvious regional differentiation characteristics.
In the future, it is the established strategy of our country to cultivate metropolitan area and strong provincial capital city so as to create new growth pole, new engine of domestic demand and new highland of industrial transformation. Therefore, for each province, region and city, to avoid falling into the downwind in the fight for stock resources, and avoid being net siphoned by surrounding provinces and cities in resources, it is necessary to start the fight for stock resources in advance. Whether it is to promote domestic consumption, realize industrial transformation, or maintain the high-level operation of the real estate market, population is the first resource. Employment, industry, capital, planning, etc. all follow the population. With people, there is everything.
The problem is that most of the floating population (especially talents) has been flowing into the core areas and cities of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan, Chengdu Chongqing, Xian, Zhengzhou, etc. For example, in 2018, the top 20 cities with new permanent population are basically in these areas, which forms a net siphon to the population of other areas. Therefore, it is necessary to take the initiative in the late development area, the newly planned functional area and the new metropolitan area. For example, Tianjins Binhai New Area should compete with Hebeis around Beijing and xiongan new area for the population and industrial resources that Beijing has alienated; Nanjing is far away from Shanghai, so it needs to build a Nanjing metropolitan area constructed by peripheral suburban counties (Gaochun, Liuhe, etc.) and Nanjings main urban area; Changsha, sandwiched between Wuhan and the Pearl River Delta, needs to get a place in the construction of the central metropolitan area, as well To build a free trade zone and free trade island in the whole island, Hainan needs to break through its population disadvantage.
For these areas, compared with the developed areas or the surrounding competitive areas, their location, industry, education, scientific research, public services, etc., are more or less inadequate. How to attract people? The prominent advantage is that compared with the first tier cities or hot cities such as Hangzhou and Xian, their purchase policies are relatively loose. Therefore, the population policy of these cities or regions is essentially attracting people by housing. Of course, it does not rule out that some cities support the real estate market, or even stimulate the real estate market careful thinking. However, the author believes that the current situation of the real estate market is not yesterday, and the elasticity of the real estate market price to the talent policy and population policy is becoming smaller and smaller.
For example, according to Kerui statistics, the real estate boom in Lingang, Shanghai, where foreigners were deregulated to buy houses in August, lasted only one month (new house sales rose 148.94% month on month). In September, the trading volume of port plate (55700 square meters) fell 43.3% month on month. Earlier, in Shijiazhuang, where the zero threshold was announced in April, the house price did not rebound, but is still falling recently; in June, Nanjing released the purchase restriction policy of Gaochun on the periphery, belonging to Gaochun in the south of the city, and the property market trend was stable in the third quarter; since last year, Haikou and Sanya, which issued talent policies for many times, also saw the house price drop. In essence, the expectation of no speculation in housing and price only rising but not falling is breaking. After three consecutive years of high sales of commercial housing in 2016-2018, supply and demand and expectation are changing.
In the key period of real estate is not speculation, and the state has also clearly stated that real estate is not used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, which has formed a high-pressure situation for local policy adjustment. As a result, Changsha, Sanya and Yanjiao have dispelled the rumors that the policy of taking advantage of talents to loosen the restrictions on purchasing. At the same time, these provinces and cities also have a full understanding of the new situation of the real estate market. Whether it is the real estate market or the real estate market to stimulate the economy, the effect of this expedient is becoming less and more obvious. On the contrary, because of the short-sighted act of relying on the real estate market again, it missed a good opportunity to repair the industrial, population, public service and other foundations of economic development, and fell behind in the regional competition.
Therefore, the zero threshold of settlement is not the zero threshold of house purchase. After the cancellation of the restriction on settling down in Hainan, the restriction on buying houses is still the same. After settling down in Hainan, at least one family member still needs to pay taxes or social insurance in Hainan for more than 24 months; those who belong to talents need to pay social insurance for more than 1 year; those who are not registered in Changsha need to provide work certificate, 24-month salary flow, 24-month residence certificate, social insurance payment certificate, etc.; two in Binhai New Area, Tianjin The science and technology park is deregulated and limited to purchase, but it will be sold for three years after the purchase of Beijing nationality. It is not advisable to withdraw from the purchase and sale restrictions blindly. The regulatory policy must be in line with the local actual situation. Otherwise, it will lead to short-term speculation, industry and supporting facilities can not be implemented, and finally it will be a situation of over loss. The policy adjustment based on the introduction of population has blocked speculation and attracted population and talents, which is a good regulatory policy.