For example, Guan Qingyou, President of the Financial Research Institute and chief economist, told the Securities Daily that from the perspective of the central governments policy on real estate, the main tone of no speculation on real estate is still very clear. Even if the short-term policy is no longer increased, it is unlikely to be relaxed in an all-round way, but one city, one policy will continue.
From the perspective of regulation effect, the goal of stabilizing land price, stabilizing house price and stabilizing expectation can be basically achieved at present. The price of the housing market has been running steadily, the increase rate has been generally narrowed, and the transaction differentiation in key cities has been significant. Guan said.
Commercial housing inventory reaches a new high
In the first half of the year, there was a wavelet sales market, and the house price rose slightly, but in the second half of the year, it fell again. The transaction was much lighter than that in the first half of the year. Recently, the inventory of second-hand houses in Beijing is the highest in recent years. Recently, when the reporter visited, a real estate agent of chain family said so.
Zhuges house finding data shows that as of October 27, a total of 21.493 million square meters were sold in 40 cities in October, down 16.4% month on month from September. In September, the sales area of new houses in key 40 cities reached 20.7924 million square meters, up 6.8% month on month (MOM) and 1.2% year-on-year (YoY).
After the cold gold nine silver ten, most real estate agents think that the end of the year will not rise. At present, there is no speculation in the market. They are just needed. I love a real estate agent in my family who told reporters. She doesnt think prices will fluctuate much before the Spring Festival. Before the end of the year, it may be a little bit lower, but after the Spring Festival, the probability will increase slightly.
According to Zhongyuan Real estate data, by the end of October, Beijings commercial housing inventory had reached 71200 units, a record high in the past eight years, up more than 30000 units from 40000 units before the current round of real estate market regulation.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told Securities Daily, Beijings real estate market inventory is related to credit policy. At present, the high proportion of non ordinary residential buildings in the Beijing market basically need to calculate the down payment according to 40% of the first set of houses and 80% of the second set of houses. The purchasing power of the buyers is insufficient.
One city, one policy will continue
From the perspective of the central government, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 emphasized the positioning of non speculation of housing, the implementation of long-term regulatory mechanism, and the clear proposal not to use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. The meeting set the policy tone for the third and fourth quarters, which played a key role in guiding market sentiment and follow-up policy. Guan Qingyou told Securities Daily that monetary policy is reasonable and abundant in the downward process of this economic cycle, and he does not intend to restart the real estate cycle to stimulate the economy.
This years report on the work of the government pointed out that we should reform and improve the housing market system and security system to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Since then, the relevant departments from the policy and supervision and other aspects to increase the regulation of the real estate market.
In April and may this year, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development gave early warning to 10 cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices. In July, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development announced the list of cities shortlisted by the central finance to support the development of the housing rental market in 2019, and vigorously promoted the construction of the housing system with rent and purchase. In August, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development made it clear that it would accelerate the promotion of housing security legislation.
In addition, in order to prevent the over financing of real estate enterprises, the CBRC, the national development and Reform Commission and the Central Bank jointly prevent the real estate market risks from three aspects, namely, the trust field, the issuance of foreign debts by enterprises and the loan issuance.
In July, the central bank put forward four requirements for the adjustment and optimization of the banks credit structure, including maintaining a reasonable and moderate growth of individual housing loans, prohibiting consumer loans from being illegally used to buy houses, and strengthening the management of funds flowing into real estate through bank financing, entrusted loans and other channels. Strengthen the supervision and risk prompt on the financing behavior of large-scale real estate enterprises with high leverage operation, and reasonably control the scale of interest bearing liabilities and asset liability ratio of enterprises. In addition, the central bank requires real estate enterprises to issue foreign debts only to replace the medium and long-term foreign debts due within the next year.
In August, the central bank stressed three times that it would not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, avoid the instrumentalization of real estate, and continue to strengthen the capital control of the real estate market in accordance with the basic principle of implementing policies for the city.
On August 25, the peoples Bank of China issued an announcement on the issues related to the newly issued commercial personal housing loan interest rate, making it clear that since October 8, the newly issued commercial personal housing loan interest rate is formed with the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding period of the latest month as the pricing benchmark plus point. The interest rate of the first commercial individual housing loan shall not be lower than the quoted rate of the loan market for the corresponding term, and the interest rate of the second commercial individual housing loan shall not be lower than the quoted rate of the loan market for the corresponding term plus 60 basis points.
Xia Fengfeng, fund manager of private placement network, told Securities Daily that the newly proposed de instrumentalization of real estate this year still continues the goal of no speculation in real estate and avoids using real estate as a means to stimulate the economy, which is significantly different from the previous policy measures in the period of economic growth decline. One policy for one city and the new housing loan interest rate policy are flexible arrangements for different regions, with stability and control. On the basis of no drainage and stimulation, the market has been stabilized and the expected effect has been achieved.
The performance differentiation of real estate enterprises will increase
As of the end of October, 120 A-share real estate enterprises (Shenwan level) have all disclosed the third quarter report. According to the statistics of Dongfang wealth choice, 120 real estate enterprises achieved an operating revenue of 1.43 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 21.81%, and a net profit of 130.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.66%. However, only 67 companies achieved performance growth, accounting for 55.83%.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Daily: Yang bin_nf4368