What is one city, one policy? Whats the difference between the real estate regulation and control idea and the previous one? At the moment when the overall sales of the real estate market is relatively stable, how will this affect the local real estate market?
Local pilot projects have been expanded
Liu Hongyu, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Tsinghua University, recently wrote in the peoples forum that one city, one policy is an important strategy to implement policy implementation and classification guidance for the city, and it is also an upgraded version.
He said that cities have differences in economic development, urbanization development level, land resource conditions, population scale and mobility, regional economic status and influence, and the characteristics of real estate market in different cities will be very different. However, China has a vast territory, and there are great differences in the development of East China, West China, coastal hinterland and the first, second, third and fourth tier cities, which determines that the urban differences in Chinas real estate market are even greater. Obviously, it is unscientific to measure every city by the same standard.
The differences of real estate market in different regions can also be directly reflected from the data. First finance and economics learned from the statistical departments that in the first three quarters of this year, the sales of real estate in most regions of the country were relatively stable, but there were also some places with large fluctuations, cold and hot polarization.
For example, the sales area of houses in the first three quarters of Hainan Province was 5.8495 million square meters, down 48.6% year on year; the sales volume of houses was 92.892 billion yuan, down 44.6% year on year. In the same period, Beijings commercial housing sales area was 5.849 million square meters, an increase of 43.7% year on year, of which the residential sales area was 4.951 million square meters, an increase of 62.2%.
The difference between the hot and cold real estate market also requires different policies from local governments.
Liu Hongyu said that one city, one policy can be understood as the new regulation and control strategy of the central government, as well as the long-term mechanism work plan for the steady and healthy development of the urban real estate market formulated by the local government under the guidance of the central government based on the citys policies and classification, which is the local own solution, and each city is unique.
After the plan is formed and published in the future, it becomes an open commitment of local government to the central government and local people, and also lays the foundation for local government to realize the transformation from passive regulation to active regulation. Liu Hongyu said.
The general direction of one city, one policy has been set. Since the beginning of this year, the pilot of one city, one policy has been expanding, and the real estate regulation and control has been constantly carried out in various regions. According to agency statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the number of national real estate regulation and control totaled more than 400 times, setting a new historical record.
As early as March 3 of this year, the peoples Government of Shandong Province issued several opinions on promoting the implementation of six stability work and achieving effective results. In terms of real estate, the document mentioned that to implement the main responsibility system of real estate regulatory cities, Jinan and Qingdao should scientifically formulate the implementation plan of one city, one policy.
Xiang yongdan, director of the Department of housing and urban rural development of Zhejiang Province, also revealed in a recent media interview that the work of one city, one policy for 11 cities divided into districts in Zhejiang Province should be completed in an all-round way this year. At present, Zhejiang Province has established a monitoring system for key real estate enterprises, with 86 large-scale real estate development enterprises (Headquarters) included in the monitoring scope, and jointly developed a real estate core business information system with Alibaba team to strengthen market analysis and monitoring.
According to the data, the real estate market in Zhejiang Province remained stable in the whole year of 2018, with a total of 97.55 million square meters of newly-built commercial housing sold in Zhejiang Province and a development investment of 994.5 billion yuan, making a new record for the third consecutive year.
The latest statements from the housing and construction departments in Shandong and Zhejiang both show that the pilot project of one city, one policy will be further expanded on the basis of the beginning of the year.
And recently, some cities released measures to attract talents, which means to loosen restrictions on purchasing in disguised form? Do they want to rob people or sell houses?
In this regard, Zhuge found a house and issued a report that the major aspects of the current regulation of the real estate market have not changed. For cities with overheated or significant price increases, there will still be corresponding measures to increase the size of the market. It is difficult to fully loosen them. Even if Nanjing, Tianjin, Sanya and other cities introduce measures to liberalize talent restrictions, it is not hard to see that they are either limited to remote areas or only targeted at special areas Fixed population, in line with the one city, one policy fine-tuning, can not form an effective support for the rise of house prices, but conducive to reducing the inventory generated by the property market downturn, conducive to the health and stability of the property market.
The central government has assessment means
Housing online registration and networking is an important part of the national real estate market monitoring and early warning system.
There are multiple purposes for housing online signing and filing, one is to prevent one house from selling more, the other is to let relevant departments grasp the information of housing transaction and provide data basis for judging the trend of real estate market.
In recent years, under the background that the central government has promoted the long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control, the nationwide networking of Housing online signature filing information can provide strong support for the long-term management mechanism of one city, one policy, and lay the foundation for the establishment of a new regulation mechanism of daily monitoring, monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment of the real estate market.
On March 18, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, went to the Ministry of housing and urban rural development to investigate. Han Zheng pointed out that it is necessary to establish a scientific monitoring system, ensure timely, accurate and full coverage of data, accelerate the construction of a national real estate market monitoring system based on big data, and provide technical support for analyzing and judging the real estate market situation and carrying out effective regulation.
Information networking can provide direct data for monitoring at the central level, and then provide decision-making basis for local assessment and even accountability.
Relevant cases have been reflected. In April this year, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, in accordance with the requirements of monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment determined by the implementation of the long-term real estate mechanism scheme, gave early warning to six cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 2019.
A month later, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development gave an early warning in May to Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, four cities where the price index of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing has increased significantly.
Li Xiang, head of the North China Market Research Department of Savills, said that although the real estate regulation and control now implements one city, one policy and allows local governments to fine tune policies according to the actual situation, it should also conform to the general direction of the central government. Once it is inconsistent with the overall goal of the central government, the possibility of being stopped is still great.
Liu Hongyu also said that in the future, the one city, one policy of each pilot city will definitely need to adjust and optimize the current implementation of the policy. To break the thinking pattern of one city, one policy is to relax the regulation and control, on the basis of maintaining the continuity and stability of the policy, to leave necessary space for policy adjustment; secondly, to fully communicate before the policy is issued, and to timely publicize and interpret after the policy is issued, Avoid over decomposition or even misreading of policies.