New energy vehicles go through the pain: when the linear cost is reduced, it will meet the cliff type compensation

category:Finance
 New energy vehicles go through the pain: when the linear cost is reduced, it will meet the cliff type compensation


Immediately, the market turned cold is directly reflected in the companys performance. The recent performance of BAIC bluevale (600733. SH) and BYD (002594. SZ) is not optimistic. According to the data, BAIC bluevale lost 367 million yuan in the third quarter, while BYDs net profit dropped 90%, and its profit in the third quarter was only 120 million yuan.

Although there are many new energy vehicle enterprises in the market, such as Tesla, which launched key volume products in China this year, overall, the industry trend has changed: according to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, new energy vehicle enterprises, including BYD, BAIC new energy, Changan new energy, JAC new energy, etc., achieved an average annual sales target of more than 50% Inside.

Whats worse, its also hard to reverse in the fourth quarter. According to BYDs forecast, the automobile market demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter, and the companys new energy automobile business profit situation is still not ideal.

How will domestic new energy vehicle enterprises go through the painful period?

Why did sales decline in the third quarter?

In the first half of this year, BYD became one of the few Chinese auto companies that achieved the growth of sales, revenue and net profit in the context of the downturn of the auto market due to the leading growth of new energy vehicle sales. But in the second half of the year, things changed.

BYD is not alone. The sales volume of new energy vehicles of BAIC new energy, which is also listed in A-share market, also slowed down from July. In September, the sales volume also fell 13.5% year-on-year.

The industry generally believes that the decline of subsidies is the reason for the decline of sales in the third quarter. However, in a visit, 21st century economic news reporter learned that although the new subsidy standard was implemented in late June this year, many models did not increase prices.

The effect of subsidy decline on sales volume is only a theoretical analysis. In fact, after the decline of subsidies, the end market price of new energy vehicles has not increased much, which is mainly concentrated in new brands such as Weilai, while traditional vehicle enterprises such as BYD and Rongwei have more price protection strategies.

Some analysts also believe that even if the price of new energy vehicles really rises due to the decline of subsidies, it will not really affect the choice of consumers. When consumers choose new energy vehicles, price is only one of the factors, and more consideration is given to whether the city is restricted in licensing and traffic, whether it emphasizes more on emission reduction and environmental protection. Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said.

In July this year, many cities and regions across the country raised the emission standards for selling fuel vehicles, and no longer allowed to sell national five models. On the eve of national 5 switching to national 6, car companies and dealers had a wave of crazy price cuts in order to quickly clean up inventory.

The price system of the car market is close to collapse, and new energy vehicles are inevitably impacted. The above people said that the national five model clearance, to a large extent, overdraft is not considered a strong demand for auto consumption.

One way for car companies to implement the guaranteed price strategy is to reduce the guidance price of new energy vehicle manufacturers, so as to maintain the original price level of vehicles after the subsidy amount is reduced, that is to say, car companies will bottom for the subsidy decline.

Compared with fuel vehicles, the price of new energy vehicles has not yet formed an advantage. Some insiders told reporters that at this stage, the cost of equipping electric vehicles with the same configuration is 40000-60000 higher than that of fuel vehicles. In order to win the market, government subsidies can only be withdrawn by enterprises.

The answer for car companies is to reduce costs. Huanghe, Party Secretary of GAC New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., once told reporters that manufacturers also want to increase prices, but the problem is that users will not buy, so after refunding and replenishing, GAC new energy will not increase the price of the original sales products, but will sell a large number of products after the new model is changed and the cost is greatly reduced.

The above-mentioned BYD people also told reporters that BYD has completed the iteration of several models in the third quarter, and the new model can reduce the requirements for batteries when the endurance level remains unchanged through the body lightweight transformation; in addition, the company is accelerating the application of E platform, relying on E platform and BNA vehicle architecture, hoping to achieve highly integrated product development and cost reduction.

However, from the perspective of the degree of subsidization decline, the cost saved by car enterprises can only cover part of the subsidy compensation. According to the latest subsidy policy, compared with last year, the amount of subsidy reduction is 10000 yuan, while the cost of battery saving is only 1000 yuan. Take a pure tram with a endurance of more than 400km as an example. In 2018, it can enjoy 50000 state subsidies and 25000 land subsidies, but this year it can only get 25000 state subsidies.

The rate of cost reduction is certainly not as fast as that of subsidization. Cost reduction is linear, but subsidization is precipitous. What companies can do is try to reduce costs to offset some of them, said the BYD people

It is expected to pick up next year

Reducing cost is a long-term proposition for the development of new energy vehicles. In essence, the decline of subsidies is also the hope of weaning the industry, so that the cost of new energy vehicles can really be reduced to the level of equal competition with fuel vehicles.

The ideal path is that the industrial support policy uses enough funds to train users and improve sales volume. In this process, the vehicle enterprises accumulate technology and ultimately reduce costs, but in fact, this link has not been opened. The Waterloo of sales volume in the third quarter shows that the sales volume of new energy vehicles has not stabilized, but the subsidy will soon be withdrawn, leaving the window period for the new energy vehicle industry, with only three years left.

Fortunately, the most dangerous moment has passed. According to the above-mentioned BYD people, with the reduction of subsidy base, the impact of subsidy decline will be correspondingly smaller in the next year. Next year will not be as worried as this year.

In addition, the overdraft of consumption power caused by the switch of national five and national six is also expected to be digested this year. We estimate that the wave was about a month to half a year ahead of schedule. The impact is medium to long term, but it should be much better next year. Said the person.

But the pace of cost reduction has not stopped. It is reported that BYD will launch a Han series model with a new lithium iron phosphate battery around June next year. At present, pure electric passenger vehicles in the domestic market are mainly equipped with ternary lithium batteries, and BYD re promotes lithium iron phosphate batteries. On the one hand, it is to deal with the safety problems of batteries, on the other hand, it is also to further reduce costs.

Since the first half of this year, there have been a number of spontaneous combustion events of electric vehicles in China. Although there are various reasons for the spontaneous combustion of batteries, the instability of ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density is stronger in terms of material composition, while the safety of lithium iron phosphate batteries is relatively higher.

Lithium iron phosphate battery is not widely used in passenger cars, mainly because of its larger size (under the same endurance conditions). BYD is developing a new type of lithium iron phosphate battery to improve its specific energy density by volume, while the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is about 20% lower than that of lithium ternary battery, the person said.

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Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Chen Hequn, nb12679