Before the dividend crisis, Xiaomis domestic market share fell sharply

category:Finance
 Before the dividend crisis, Xiaomis domestic market share fell sharply


The dividend of Xiaomi in the age of 4G mobile phone has gradually disappeared. 5g is both an opportunity and a challenge for Xiaomi in the future.

As of October 31, Xiaomi groups share price was 8.89 Hong Kong dollars, up 1.14% on that day, down 1.88% from the closing price of 9.06 Hong Kong dollars on October 25 after Xiaomi group was included in the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Analysts of futu securities told the first financial reporter that Hong Kong market attaches great importance to fundamentals and Xiaomis participation in Hong Kong stock connect is a stimulus factor, but it does not guarantee the continuous improvement of the stock price. According to the latest canaalys report, the market share of Xiaomi mobile phones in the mainland market dropped from 13.1% in the third quarter of 2018 to 9% in the third quarter of 2019, and the shipment volume also dropped by 33% year on year, the largest drop among all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers.

On October 30, the latest data released by canalys, a global research organization, showed that the shipment volume of Chinas smart phone market in the third quarter of this year increased slightly from 97.6 million in the second quarter to 97.8 million, a 3% decrease over the same period last year.

In addition to Huawei, several other mobile phone manufacturers showed a share decline of no less than 20%, such as 17.5 million vivo units, 17.9% market share, 23% year-on-year decrease; 17 million oppo units, 17.4% market share, 20% year-on-year decrease; 8.8 million millet units, 9% market share, 33% year-on-year decrease; 5.1 million Apple units, 5.2% market share, 28% year-on-year decrease.

Changing from one place to another at home and abroad

In the face of Xiaomi mobile phone, which has the largest decline, Yan Zhanmeng, director of research at counter point, told the first financial reporter that the main reason for the serious decline in the domestic market of Xiaomi mobile phone is that its competitors are radical and strong, and Huawei has become the main force in the mobile phone market above 2000 yuan. The Chinese market is a very cruel market, manufacturers must constantly update and upgrade their products to survive, even apple is no exception. The improvement of mobile phone quality also increases their service life. Therefore, it is difficult for Chinas smart phone market to grow this year, and it is more difficult for small and medium-sized brands to survive.

At the same time, Yan Zhanmeng said that the serious decline of Xiaomis domestic market share is not entirely a problem of his own. His business model, including Xiaomi Direct stores and Xiaomi online, has been well done, mainly due to factors such as the general environment and competitors.

Compared with the decline of mobile market share in China, Xiaomi Mobile has achieved better results in the overseas market. According to the counter point report, Xiaomi Mobiles market share in India was 26% in the third quarter of 2019, ranking first for nine consecutive quarters. Xiaomi groups financial report in the second quarter of 2019 shows that in the first half of the year, Xiaomis total revenue was 95.71 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2% year on year; among them, Xiaomis overseas market revenue was 38.6 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% year on year, accounting for more than 40% of the total revenue. At the same time, Xiaomi continues to expand its overseas offline layout. As of June 30, 2019, there are 520 authorized stores in Xiaomis home abroad, 79 of which are in India, and there are 1790 miscores in India that focus on all levels of cities.

Jia Mo, an analyst at canalys, said that Huaweis overseas shipments reached 76 million in the first three quarters of 2019. Xiaomi gradually caught up with Huaweis overseas shipments in the second and third quarters, with a difference of less than 1 million in the second quarter and less than 2 million in the third quarter.

Yan Zhanmeng told the first financial reporter that Xiaomis bullish performance in the overseas market is mainly due to its share of the bonus of smart phone upgrading in overseas emerging countries, and its sales volume is driven by expanding emerging markets in overseas countries. Yan Zhanmeng said that Xiaomi 4G mobile phone has little chance in the Chinese market at present. On the one hand, the future opportunities include innovation in 5g application, such as video, live broadcast, VraR, etc.; on the other hand, Xiaomi 4G mobile phone continues to expand in the overseas market. But the latter millet is not without rivals, industry manufacturers are aware of the dividend space of the overseas market.

According to counter point data, by the third quarter of 2019, the market share of vivo and realm in India was 17% and 16% respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. Since entering India in 2014, millet mobile phones in this market are mainly red rice mobile phones with an average price of less than 1000 yuan, and the actual profit space is limited.

On January 19, 2019, Paris Champs Elysees, the biggest flagship store of Xiaomi Europe, officially opened, adding code to the European high-end mobile phone market. However, one problem that cannot be ignored is that most of the European mobile phone market is controlled by operators, and it is not easy to win more shares.

Future crisis coexists

Analysts of futu securities told the first financial reporter that Xiaomis dividend in the era of 4G mobile phones has gradually disappeared, and 5g is both an opportunity and a challenge for Xiaomi in the future. Earlier, at the world Internet Conference in Wuzhen, Lei Jun announced that more than ten 5g mobile phones will be launched. It can be seen that Xiaomi wants to quickly seize market share through the cost-effective strategy at the early stage of 5g mobile phone popularization, which is also Xiaomis strategy.

In addition, the analyst said that Xiaomis card position for 5g mobile phones is not just to seize the market share of mobile phones. Aiot has always been Xiaomis strategy. The biggest opportunity for Xiaomi in 5g era lies in the more efficient data connection between 5g mobile phones and other smart products of Xiaomi, which brings users a better experience. Of course, in this process, Huaweis layout for 5g and the Internet of things is still Is its biggest challenge.

Peng Luping, global vice president of canalys mobile business, said in this regard that in view of Huaweis close relationship with operators in 5g network deployment and its control over key components such as 5g chipsets compatible with local networks, Huaweis current market position will be further consolidated in 5g. This puts great pressure on oppo, vivo and Xiaomi. It is very difficult for them to make market breakthrough. According to the research report recently released by Anxin securities, under the condition of zero year-on-year growth in 2019 performance, Xiaomis current static valuation reflects the negative expectation of the market. Considering that Xiaomis annual electric capacity improves the companys income level, Internet, finance, e-commerce and other improvements in the companys profitability, Xiaomis annual performance rate can maintain a growth rate of 20% - 30%, and there is still room for upward valuation, After being incorporated into Hong Kong stock connect, it is expected to usher in incremental capital. Goldman Sachs recently released a report estimated that the potential inflow of funds into Xiaomi amounted to $1.6 billion, accounting for about 14% of the free circulation market value. Source: First Financial Editor: Zhong Qiming

Peng Luping, global vice president of canalys mobile business, said in this regard that in view of Huaweis close relationship with operators in 5g network deployment and its control over key components such as 5g chipsets compatible with local networks, Huaweis current market position will be further consolidated in 5g. This puts great pressure on oppo, vivo and Xiaomi. It is very difficult for them to make market breakthrough.

According to the research report recently released by Anxin securities, under the condition of zero year-on-year growth in 2019 performance, Xiaomis current static valuation reflects the negative expectation of the market. Considering that Xiaomis annual electric capacity improves the companys income level, Internet, finance, e-commerce and other improvements in the companys profitability, Xiaomis annual performance rate can maintain a growth rate of 20% - 30%, and there is still room for upward valuation, After being incorporated into Hong Kong stock connect, it is expected to usher in incremental capital. Goldman Sachs recently released a report estimated that the potential inflow of funds into Xiaomi amounted to $1.6 billion, accounting for about 14% of the free circulation market value.