First, put out the data from the official website of Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics:
1. In the first three quarters of 2019, the GDP of Jilin Province officially increased by 1.8% year-on-year (I dont need the original data to calculate the actual growth, which is only 0.9%, too low. The following data I directly use after some beautification and amendment of the official growth rate), ranked the last of 31 provincial administrative units in the country.
2. From January to August 2019, the fiscal revenue of Jilin province increased by - 9.4%.
3. From January to August 2019, the turnover of accommodation industry above Designated Size in Jilin province increased by - 7.2%, catering industry above Designated Size by - 14.1%, and total retail sales of consumer goods above Designated Size by - 5.1%.
4. From January to August 2019, the import and export growth of Jilin Province was - 6.6%, of which the export growth was - 1.5% and the import growth was - 8.1%.
5. From January to August 2018, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Jilin Province was - 10.4%, of which the growth rate of secondary industry investment was - 31.8%.
6. From January to August 2018, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Jilin province increased by 0.5%.
Based on the above data, even if we fully believe in the optimized growth data of these statistical departments, it also means that Jilin Province has fallen into a sharp contraction in finance, consumption, foreign trade, investment and real industry. All the engines of economic development have been stalled or even frozen. In fact, it also means that the new round of Northeast Economic Revitalization Strategy, which was once placed great hopes, has been declared a failure.
Here, of course, I dont just want to simply list the data. What I want to discuss here is: what should the Northeast do? For a long time, Chinas domestic economic think tank groups have given their opinions on the northeast economy, which is the cage for bird plan, that is, to abandon the original heavy industry system and start a new business to develop the so-called light industry, real estate, finance or some kind of high-tech industry suspended in the air. Note that this scheme was quite popular in the political and economic circles of our country. There are many local governments who choose this method and write it into the annual work report of the government. Using the keyword government work report + cage for bird to search on Baidu, 1.25 million search results can be found, involving cities from south to north, from east to west, all over the country.
However, up to this moment, all the cities that choose the scheme of bird exchange have failed, without exception. Local governments have spent nine cows and two tigers to drive out the original enterprises for various reasons. Finally, entrepreneurs are cold hearted and choose to shut down enterprises or simply move to Southeast Asia. But the new industry has not been born at all. When the birdcage is empty, it is always empty here. It is impossible to attract a new bird to come here in the background that the world has not been able to produce the so-called new industry.
Until now, the pillar manufacturing industry in China is still clothing, shoes and socks + electronic processing. If there is industrial upgrading, it is that the once low-end clothing has become brand clothing, and the once household appliances have become the current mobile computers. Thats it. The so-called new industries that have been hyped in China in recent years: wind power generation and solar power generation, have basically been put out of the street. What can survive is relying on state subsidies. The industrial robot industry, which originally planned to replace human labor force, has flourished for less than two years. Now it is at the end of the tether. From January to September this year, the output of industrial robots in China fell by 9.1% year on year, while the data of the same period last year was up by 9.3%. One positive and one negative is just a sharp contrast. The basic reason for the shrinkage of industrial robot industry lies in that robot itself is not human and cannot be consumed. The essence of the economic crisis is the lack of consumption power, and the robot will undoubtedly aggravate this contradiction. The products produced by robots tirelessly, even if the cost can be greatly reduced due to not paying workers wages, but who will sell your products to in the end? Sold to robots? China could have dumped these low-cost goods to the United States, but now there is no chance for tariffs to be added.
As for other high-tech industries that exist in the imagination, they are just nonsense. The new energy vehicle industry as a whole is a fraud industry, so lets not talk about it. The real graphene battery is still the product of the laboratory. Its cost is unimaginably high. Its about 20 years before the industrial production. As for those who casually add a little graphene material to some unimportant material of the battery, they call themselves the graphene battery industry. Jiucheng is going to mend it. And the most eye-catching quantum related industry is the swindler, the low-end weak intelligence of the scam, which is unbelievable.
Everyone, you must know that since the 1980s, human beings have stepped into the technological desert step by step. Now all the so-called technological progress is just a repair to the previous technological framework. There is no real revolutionary technological progress. Compared with the 1980s, the modern internal combustion engine has not made much progress in essence. Portable energy, also based on chemical reaction batteries, has a slight increase in energy density, which is not a fundamental change. Biotechnology and DNA technology are still at the stage of groping at the door. If you occasionally find a little shadow inside the door, you will be very happy. There are still 188000 miles to go from actual application. The current situation of technology development in the world is that we hope that the cage for bird can save the northeast with a population of more than 100 million. This is nonsense that we know nothing about the real world.
For the northeast, what we can do now is to refine the industries in our hands, which is quite enough. The furnace temperature of the steel-making boiler can realize the precise control of the upper and lower deviation within 5 degrees. The impurity content of refined steel can be controlled below one thousandth. Alloy material can achieve uniform fusion of precise proportion. To achieve these three points, even if the traditional iron and steel industry in Northeast China is revitalized, the price of steel can be increased by at least 40%, reversing the situation that Chinas high-quality steel (such as steel used for automobile girders and springs) is highly dependent on imports. For another example, the simplest screws and nuts can realize a million pairs of level mutual replacement without slipping. The most common bearing balls, any one million finished products, are flawless balls without deformation. These two things can be made, and the whole northeast machinery industry can be upgraded to a higher level, thus turning the situation that China has to import a large number of precision machine tools. For example, in the chemical industry, the proportion of all materials can be strictly in accordance with the established equation, and the impurity content can be controlled within 1 / 10000, which can produce raw materials that meet the requirements of precision chemical industry, so as to save the dying chemical industry in Northeast China. Therefore, the whole domestic chemical industry will achieve a qualitative leap, and change the low efficacy of domestic drugs Inherent impression. In the textile industry, only a little less thread and a little more dense fiber are needed to improve the quality of cloth, so as to try to occupy the high-end clothing market.
Every original thing has made a little progress. This is the industrial upgrading. This is the only way to save the northeast economy. Is it very difficult? In fact, its not difficult in technology. Everything has been industrialized. There are many people doing it. Even many small factories in Germany and Japan live on the production of screws and balls with absolutely reliable quality, and they work very well. As far as all the above mentioned things are concerned, most of the time, they are nothing more than the question of whether they are willing to do it or not.
If it was three years ago, when the national finance was still very rich, it doesnt matter. The northeast economy can be supported by state investment, and the Northeast doesnt need to turn around to change its refined production. However, up to now, the financial situation of our Greater China is not optimistic as a whole. In the first three quarters of today, the growth rate of the central financial revenue is only 3.5%. Its really to the point that we want to continue to support the northeast, and we cant even support it. Under such circumstances, if the northeast is still unwilling to make up its mind and seriously start the pace of fine production reform, the only way left before the northeast is to degenerate into the Chinese version of the rust belt.
If the northeast people are not willing to starve themselves to death, then I hope that the northeast people who have no way back, especially Jilin people who have come to the edge of the cliff, can bravely take over the burden of refined production. First of all, we will seize the high-precision screw and ball industry from the small factory in Germany and Japan, and let the German and Japanese lose that wave Ye, let them cry for their father and cry for their mother. And we can give full play to our industrial chain advantages, from materials to equipment. On the way of refined production, the northeast with a complete industrial chain foundation should be the guide of China!