PMI in October: non manufacturing business activity index continues to expand

category:Finance
 PMI in October: non manufacturing business activity index continues to expand


On October 31, 2019, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and China Federation of logistics and procurement released the China procurement manager index. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted this.

I. purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry fell

In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom fell. It mainly presents the following characteristics: first, production keeps expanding, and market demand has declined. The manufacturing production index was 50.8%, down 1.5 percentage points on a month on month basis, and remained in the expansion range. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 have production indexes in the expansion range, indicating that the production of most manufacturing industries has increased. The production index of textile, clothing, paper printing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, special equipment, computer communication equipment and other manufacturing industries is in the higher boom range of 55.0%. In terms of demand, the new order index was 49.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the market demand weakened. Second, the foreign trade market is operating at a low level and the price index has fallen. Affected by the global economic slowdown and other factors, the new export order index and import index were 47.0% and 46.9%, down 1.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from last month. The purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 50.4% and 48.0%, respectively, 1.8 and 1.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, among which the price indexes of oil, steel, non-ferrous and other industries were relatively low. Third, the transformation and upgrading continued to advance. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 51.4%, 50.3% and 50.8%, respectively higher than the overall manufacturing industry by 2.1, 1.0 and 1.5 percentage points, all operating in the boom range. The internal structure of manufacturing industry continues to be optimized, and the basic role of consumption in economic development continues to show. Fourth, corporate confidence is relatively stable. The expected index of production and operation activities of manufacturing industry is 54.2%, which is still higher than the average value in the third quarter, though falling 0.2% on a month on month basis.

II. The non manufacturing business activity index continued to expand, and the construction industry index returned to a high level

In October, the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non manufacturing industry continued to operate in the expansion range.

The service sector is expected to pick up. The business activity index of service industry was 51.4%, down 1.6 percentage points on a month on month basis, but the expected index of business activity reached 60.3%, up 1.0 percentage points on a month on month basis, rising to a high boom range, among which the expected index of business activity of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, banking, insurance and other industries was above 65.0%, and the confidence of service industry enterprises in market development was enhanced. In terms of industry, the business activity index of accommodation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment industries is higher than that of last month; the business activity index of information transmission software, information technology services, finance, real estate and other industries is lower than that of last month.

The construction industry has returned to a high boom. The construction business activity index was 60.4%, up 2.8 percentage points from last month, returning to the high boom range. In terms of industry categories, the business activity index of housing construction industry is 64.0%, up 8.8% month on month; the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry is 59.1%, lower than 1.8% last month. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the employee index and business activity index are 51.8% and 63.2% respectively, up 0.7 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment of construction enterprises is growing steadily and the industry development prospect is optimistic.

In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.0%, 1.1 percentage points lower than last month, and the production and operation of Chinese enterprises remained in the expansion range. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 50.8% and 52.8% respectively.

Source: National Bureau of statistics, editor in charge: Chen Hequn, nb12679