Can Johnson win the election ahead of time to lead the UK to end its brexit long run?

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 Can Johnson win the election ahead of time to lead the UK to end its brexit long run?


On October 29, in London, Britain, the lower house of Parliament overwhelmingly passed Prime Minister Johnsons motion to hold an early general election on December 12. Picture / visual China

Britain will enter the general election mode next week

The upper house of Parliament is expected to pass an early election bill this week, followed by the dissolution of Parliament on Wednesday, the Guardian reported. At that time, Britain will officially enter the general election mode, and all parties will officially launch a five week campaign. On December 12, nearly 46 million eligible British voters will vote to elect representatives of district councils to form a new parliament.

British general election refers to the election of the lower house of Parliament, which will produce 650 members. The party with an absolute majority of seats (326 or more) in the lower house will form a government, and the party leader will be the prime minister. If no party has an absolute majority of seats, the largest party can form a coalition government with other parties, and the leader of the largest party will be the prime minister.

According to the BBC, this is the first time in nearly 100 years that a general election has been held in the UK in Christmas month. The last general election was held in 1923. In fact, British elections are usually held in spring or autumn, because the weather is good and the sunset is late, which is convenient for candidates to engage in all kinds of campaign activities. On the contrary, in December, the British sunset is very early, and there are frequent rainfall, flood, fog and even snow weather, which is not conducive to the campaign; in addition, December 12 is close to Christmas, many voters are not willing to participate in the campaign and voting activities at this time.

Labor also raised concerns on the night of the 29th, saying that if the election is scheduled for December 12, many students have left school, which is not conducive to encouraging them to participate in the election. As a result, the Labor Party proposed to hold a general election on December 9, but it was eventually rejected.

Once in decades opportunities for labour

Since taking over Theresa May as prime minister in July this year, Johnson has lost many battles in Parliament. Even after he reached a new brexit agreement with the European Union, parliament is still stuck in a deadlock and it is difficult to pass his agreement quickly. Based on this, Johnson has proposed the early election motion three times, saying that only the general election can break the parliamentary deadlock.

But the main opposition party, the Labour Party, has not been able to take over. The reason Im so cautious is simply that I dont trust the prime minister, labor leader Corbin initially said. After that, Corbin softened his attitude, saying that the labor party would support the early election after the no agreement to leave Europe was completely rejected. On January 29, after the European Union agreed to extend Britains brexit to January 31, 2020, Corbin finally expressed support for the general election, saying that the threat of non agreement brexit has been temporarily eliminated, and we are ready for the general election.

After the vote on the evening of the 29th, labor leader Corbin said, this election is a rare opportunity for decades to reform our country and protect the vested interests of the people. Labor Party will hold the most ambitious and fundamental campaign to bring unprecedented and real changes to our country.

Conservatives lead in polls

After Boris Johnson came to power, he repeatedly said that Britain must complete brexit on October 31 this year. However, although he and the EU reached a new agreement at the last minute, lawmakers thought it would take more time to study the agreement and finally forced Johnson to write to the EU to seek an extension. On October 28, the European Union announced its agreement to extend the period of brexit to January 31, 2020.

The BBC said that Johnson, who has been defeated repeatedly in parliament, has repeatedly put forward the motion of early election, hoping to increase the Conservative Partys advantage in Parliament through the general election, so as to easily pass his brexit agreement and complete the brexit. At present, the Conservatives have 288 seats in the lower house of Parliament, 38 seats short of the half needed to pass the agreement.

According to data from a number of British pollsters, the support rate of the Conservative Party remains at the leading position. The Conservative Party has a 35.1% approval rating, nearly 10 percentage points ahead of the second largest labor party, which has a 25.4% approval rating, according to Britains Britain? Elements poll. The third is the Liberal Democratic Party, with a support rate of 18.1%; the support rates of the brexit party and the green party are 11.3% and 4%, respectively. The independent poll conducted jointly by the times and YouGov on October 21-22 showed that the Conservative Partys support rate was 37%, the Labor Partys 22% and the Liberal Democratic Partys 19%.

u25a0 expert interpretation

The Labour Party is reluctant to take responsibility for the obstruction of brexit

Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of international studies, told the Beijing news that it has always been Johnsons established strategy to hold the general election ahead of time. On the one hand, he hopes to realize his political commitment and lead the UK to successfully complete the brexit; on the other hand, he hopes to avoid the dilemma faced by his predecessor Theresa May, who failed to pass the three brexit agreements. Therefore, he can only Choose early elections to break the current deadlock in Parliament.

Cui said it was not surprising that the labor party changed its support for early elections. In the current political deadlock, the early election has become a political tool for the Conservative Party and the labor party. Whether and when to hold the early election depends on the judgment of both sides on the current situation and whether it is beneficial for both sides.

Cui Hongjian said that from the perspective of the labor party, on the one hand, there is no better way to break the current impasse except for the early election; on the other hand, if the Conservative Party has repeatedly asked for the early election and the Labor Party has not supported it, it must gradually assume the responsibility of impeding the smooth brexit of Britain, which will have a very negative impact on the support rate of the labor party.

The future of brexit after the election is still unpredictable

According to Cui Hongjian, according to the current situation, Johnsons Conservative Party won a big victory, because for many British people, it is not a question of leaving Europe or not, but they have been very dissatisfied with the delay of leaving Europe, so this part of voters are likely to come to Johnsons side. However, even if the Conservatives win the election, they are likely to have no more than half of the seats in parliament, at which time they will still face the difficulty of forming a cabinet.

Cui believes that the election will directly affect the future direction of brexit. As Johnson said in his previous letter to Corbin, if the conservative party wins, Johnson will push for brexit in accordance with his existing agreement; but if the labor party wins, it will most likely need to form a cabinet with other parties, such as the Liberal Democratic Party or the Scottish National Party. If this happens, it may bring great changes to the path and direction of brexit. Due to the ambiguous attitude of the labor party, the LDP and SNP have repeatedly asked for the second referendum to stay in the EU. So the future of brexit remains uncertain.

(function() {(window. Slotbydup = window. Slotbydup| []). Push ({ID: 6374560, container: ssp_, size: 300250, display: inlay fix, async: true});))); (); source of this paper: Beijing News responsibility editor: Dai Wenjia