The result of Britains double 12 election and brexit is highly uncertain

 The result of Britains double 12 election and brexit is highly uncertain

Polls show that the Conservative Party has a lead and is about 10 percentage points ahead of the opposition Labour Party, but prime minister Boris Johnsons remarks to the media before leaving the house of Commons are rather cautious. Now is the time for the country to unite and move forward. It will be a tough election, but we will do our best. He said.

Once the house of Lords passes the legislation on October 30, the British Parliament will be dissolved next Wednesday, with the parties having five weeks to campaign. Research shows that Johnson will win a majority in the house of Commons unless voters take a tactical vote to prevent the Conservatives from winning.

Every party has its own plan in the general election

Johnson hopes to hold a general election before Christmas to break the impasse that the house of Commons has brought to brexit. He told members of the house of Commons before voting Tuesday (29 local time) not to take the country hostage any more.

In any case, Johnson failed to lead Britain out of the EU on October 31, as he promised. In the oppositions calculations, that means the public can punish the Conservatives with their votes. There are also concerns among Johnsons political allies that a general election now could have a negative impact because of the failure to live up to Halloweens commitment to brexit.

Health minister Matt Hancock said Wednesday that he thought no one in Britain would think Johnson was not doing his best to achieve brexit. Johnson successfully reached a new agreement with the EU that many people thought was impossible before, but parliament blocked brexit.

Thats why we need an early election, he said. We dont want an election, but its the only way to move the country forward.

Liberal Democrats, who are happy to see early elections, see this as the last chance to prevent brexit. Tom brake, the partys spokesman for brexit, said the partys main motive in pushing for the election was to avoid the brexit deal being passed under the leadership of the conservative party or the labour party. Jo swinson, the LDPs female leader, said she was a better prime minister than Johnson and Jeremy corbyn, the Labour leader.

The LDP and SNP hope to set a date for the general election on December 9 so that more college students can take advantage of the holiday to vote, and opposition lawmakers have proposed to reduce the voting age to 16 and allow EU citizens living in the UK to vote, all of which were rejected on Tuesday.

Labor leader Corbin has repeatedly said that Labor MPs will block the December election, but when he saw that the situation was not good, even without labor support, the early election could almost certainly pass the house of Commons, he finally turned around.

I cant wait to walk down the street, he said. In every town in the country, the Labour Party is there to deliver real hope, and the conservative government offers nothing.

In private, some Labour MPs expressed dismay that if labour were in the way at this time, it would only make itself look stupid. In the end, more than 100 members of the Labour Party abstained in the vote, while only 11 voted against it.

Labour has positioned the election as a generation of opportunities for real change in the broader economic, social and environmental spheres. The party described the second referendum as a more equitable and inclusive way forward. Corbin called on voters to take advantage of the election to oust the conservative government led by Johnson.

The brexit party, led by Nigel Farage, plans to focus on winning 20 of its most pro brexit constituencies.

Public opinion leading may not turn into votes

Every election is a gamble. The one who is expected in advance may not be able to laugh to the end. The intensity of the internal struggle among the major parties is unprecedented, so that 51 members of the house of commons have so far announced that they will not participate in the early election.

If the poll is correct, Johnson will achieve a majority in Parliament through this election and reach a brexit agreement through Parliament before the new brexit deadline of January 31, 2020. But if his campaign is wrong and the conservatives cant get a majority, they will open the door to their opponents. The opposition will work to soften the position of brexit and hold a second referendum, or even stop brexit.

Last month, Johnson expelled 21 conservative rebels who had asked for another extension of their exit from Europe, widening the gap between the Conservatives and the majority in the house of Commons to 45 seats. On Tuesday night, the party membership of 10 of its members was restored to mend the rift in the party over the brexit issue, while avoiding the candidates running as independent candidates and diluting the Tories votes.

Sir John Curtice, a pollster, pointed out that this was a competition in which Johnson would not be able to get out of trouble if he did not achieve an overall majority, and Johnson would not be able to bear the burden of failing to obtain a majority in the house of Commons. To win the election, the Conservatives need to win nearly 50 constituencies that would otherwise be labour seats, enough to make up for the losses elsewhere.

On the face of it, Mr. Johnsons conservative party is 13 percentage points ahead of the labor party with 37% of the vote, and can expect to have a majority in the house of Commons, enough to pass the brexit agreement negotiated by the government and the European Union at the beginning of this month, according to Mr. hanretti. But the trouble for the Conservatives is that the polls approval ratings dont necessarily translate into December votes. Whether the Tories can maintain their leading position in the next five weeks, and how that position can be translated into real seats in the house of Commons, are uncertain.

In the early election of former Prime Minister Theresa Meiji in 2017, the conservative party suffered a disastrous defeat. In six weeks of campaign time, the Conservative Partys initial lead of 20 percentage points has suddenly decreased to only 2 percentage points by the time of the election. Finally, it failed to obtain a single majority of the Parliament, which directly led to the subsequent deadlock of brexit.

Another brutal reality facing traditional big parties like the Conservatives is that voters are no longer as loyal to one party as they used to be. In the 2017 general election, the Conservative Party and the Labor Party won 84% of the vote, and the latest polls show that the two parties can only win about 60% of the total vote now. The remaining 40% will be divided by the Liberal Democratic Party, the British independence party and the brexit party. Because voters are more willing to change parties, they are also more vulnerable to political campaigns.

Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Chen Hequn, nb12679