The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the Taipei bill on the 29th, and the House version of the Taipei bill on the 30th will also be voted on by the foreign Committee of the house of Representatives, and then submitted to the house of Representatives.
When both houses of Congress pass, the final common version negotiated by the two houses will be passed by both houses of Congress respectively, and then it can be submitted to President trump for signature and become law.
The scholars interviewed by Daojie predict that the Taipei bill is likely to be finally passed.
What is the Taipei act
The full name of Taipei bill is Taiwan Alliance International Security and strengthening initiative.
On September 25, it was first approved by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States Senate. However, at that time, public opinion mainly focused on the Hong Kong Bill of human rights and democracy which was passed on the same day and interfered in Hong Kongs affairs.
In a subsequent press release, Gardner, the proponent of the Taipei bill and chairman of the Asia Pacific Group of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, made no secret that the bill was intended to strengthen Taiwans international status, cope with mainland Chinas pressure on Taiwan, and try to reduce Taiwans bullying means of International Space and diplomatic recognition.
However, compared with the original version proposed by Gardner on May 23, the version adopted by the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee on October 29 was slightly more moderate.
The May 23 version claims that for countries that have broken diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the U.S. administration can reduce their diplomatic relations or aid, and requires the State Department to submit regular reports on how to help Taiwan maintain its so-called diplomatic relations.
These two articles, in the version passed by the Senate, are no longer available.
The new version is very general. It says the U.S. government should support Taiwan to develop relations with other countries. Whoever is close to Taiwan, Washington will consider increasing its economic, security and diplomatic exchanges with it; on the contrary, Washington will consider reducing its exchanges with it.
The new version has been abridged and increased. It proposed that the United States should conduct bilateral trade negotiations with Taiwan.
Sounds good. But what the US wants to achieve is a free trade agreement that is in the common economic interest and can protect American labor and benefit American exporters.
The point is obviously in the second half of the sentence, that is, I dont know how much wool Taiwan has for the United States to continue to pull.
Lets look at the house of Representatives.
Compared with the Senate, the house of Representatives is fairly fast.
On October 18, the House version of the Taipei bill was led by Republican representative Curtis. In less than two weeks, the House Foreign Affairs Committee will vote on it. According to Curtis, the House version of the Taipei bill is also intended to enhance Taiwans international status.
What are the consequences of such a Taipei bill?
How bad the Taipei bill is
Xin Qiang (Professor of American Research Center of Fudan University): I have read the original version of Taipei bill at present. There are some differences between the two academies. Generally speaking, when the two chambers coordinate versions, they will make some subtractions, cut off the areas with large differences, and then form a unified text.
After reading the bill, my feeling is that if the current version does not make major changes, it will not have a substantial impact on China, because it has no specific mandatory requirements and no clear requirements on the extent of the administrative departments.
The bill is more like an expression of the views of the house and the Senate, except that it requires the executive branch to take some action. In practical implementation, the administrative department should also take into account the overall situation of China US relations, and should not go too far.
The badness of the Taipei act lies in that, first, it will put pressure on the US administration to do something.
Second, it will have a chilling effect on the so-called diplomatic countries who want to change their positions. For example, if a country wants to turn to establishing diplomatic relations with China in the next step, it may need to take the American factor into account. After all, the United States is a superpower and its influence is there. Some countries still rely heavily on American aid or American market.
Third, the impact on the island. Green camp will certainly hype this topic, indicating that the US Taiwan relationship is very stable, which may affect some middle voters, let them vote for Tsai ing Wen in the election in January next year.
So, there may be some substantive harm to the Taipei bill, but its not a big deal. Washington is like holding up a big stick. Its hard to say whether to fight or not. Its hard to say how hard to fight. Its also hard to say whether the fight will work or not. Its hard to say whether someone will buy it or not.
Moreover, even if the United States raises this big stick, it cant resist this trend.
Chinas political, economic and diplomatic influence will continue to rise, which is a general trend.
It is also a general trend for Taiwans so-called diplomatic countries to establish diplomatic relations and develop relations with the mainland in the future, which is more conducive to their national interests.
Yuan Zheng (researcher of the American Institute of Social Sciences): once the Taipei bill is passed, the actual impact will still exist. It depends on how the US administration does.
From the State Councils statement, there is a tacit understanding between the two sides: Congress is to give the executive more authorization, and the executive can have more legal basis to do something to pressure China.
In Central America, the U.S. can leverage its influence or economic aid to keep those countries from breaking ties with Taiwan.
At this point, the administration and Congress have no differences.
In addition, the bill will enhance us Taiwan relations. With the support of Americans, Taiwan will have more confidence in facing the mainland in the future.
Yu Xintian (director of Shanghai Taiwan Research Institute): if the Taipei bill is passed, it will put a lot of pressure on us. Washington can use this tool at any time to increase the possibility of pressure on China. The United States can sing red and white, forcing us to make greater concessions.
Whats more, the U.S. will have a great imitative effect.
Some western countries are looking at it, some other countries are looking at it. If Washington passes the Taipei act, it will encourage other countries to develop relations with Taiwan.
Now some countries have quietly strengthened exchanges with Taiwan. Many people sympathize with Taiwan and give more support in public opinion. For example, Prague, the Czech Republic, cancelled the friendly city relationship with Beijing.
Limited effect of US sides protective platform
As you can see, a series of recent practices in Washington around the Taiwan issue have constantly exposed the limitations of American power and its ruthlessness.
Unfortunately, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has long been dominated by the attitude of the United States.
In the past two years, the US Congress has passed a number of Taiwan related bills in a row, but their effect of protecting Taiwan is very limited.
Now this Taipei bill may indeed increase the concerns of some small countries about breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan and establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing. But after Washingtons threat to Taiwans diplomatic power, Solomon Islands and Kiribati chose to establish or resume diplomatic relations with China.
When former Solomon Islands Prime Minister arrived in Taiwan in 2018, he met with Tsai ing Wen.
The current situation of the Taiwan issue is the reflection of the game between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait.
In legal theory, a China is widely recognized by the world, and successive American governments continue to accept it. It is very difficult for Washington to find another way.
In terms of strength, the United States has strong comprehensive strength, but Taiwan is close to the mainland, and the mainlands military force has been able to effectively deter Taiwan independence.
The us no longer has political and military advantages in the Taiwan Strait.
Tsai believes that the closer the relationship between the United States and Taiwan is, the more points it scores, the safer Taiwan will be.
This is a fatal miscarriage of justice by Tsai ing Wen and the DPP.
Taiwans representative office in the UK held a rally in central London on May 16 to support Taiwans participation in the World Health Organization.
Taiwan is just a pawn of the United States. The United States sometimes makes a sheltering gesture to Taiwan and sells other weapons. It is just a way for Washington and Beijing to play games.
In fact, the United States will not be truly responsible for Taiwan, nor can it afford to.
Wake up, DPP authorities.
Dont be superstitious to the members of the United States Congress who are most keen on election politics, let alone put too high expectations on the Taiwan of the United States.
Taiwans security and prosperity will depend on how well it coordinates its relations with the mainland.
A wise cross-strait policy is more effective than how many f-16vs Taiwan buys from the United States.
(huadaodao and razor also contribute to this paper)
Source: editor in charge of global network: Yu changzong ufe63 nbj11145